JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

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Steve Adams

2:02

Hey all -- thanks for the early questions. I'll try to get to as many of those as I can and as many new ones that pop up over the next hour!

T-Mobile

2:02

Humor me: The Mariners will compete for a playoff spot in 2021. Yea or nay?

Steve Adams

2:04

I'm always loath to make any proclamation on this kind of thing without seeing what the offseason brings. They'll probably sign and, particularly in the Mariners' case, acquire several new additions between now and Opening Day.

I'll say that I don't think the club, as constructed -- even if you assume an early 2021 Kelenic promotion -- is quite there. But I also don't think this will be the group you're looking at next spring, either.

I'm buying Justus Sheffield, and I think if you add a solid veteran arm to the rotation mix alongside him and Gonzales, plus at least a couple of bullpen arms, there's a chance. The Rangers are stepping back. The Astros lost Verlander already and the entire OF is headed to free agency

2:05

That goes a bit beyond the one-word answer you sought, ha, but let's just say I think it's eminently possible with some quality offseason dealing that they're in that mix next year.

2:06

I also refuse to give up on Kikuchi... huge swinging-strike rate jump this year. Improvements in K-BB% and GB%. I still think he can be the midrotation starter they wanted.

Farhad Zaidi

2:07

If the Giants paid 50% of his 2021 $21 MM contract, what type of player could we expect in return? A top 100 prospect would be unrealistic?

Steve Adams

2:07

I assume this question is about Johnny Cueto?

2:08

I don't see how the Giants would get a Top 100 prospect out of him if they paid his entire salary. If Cueto were a free agent right now, coming off a 5.53 ERA/4.66 FIP in 57 IP, what kind of offers is he looking at? Maybe a couple million bucks with incentives based on his track record?

2:09

Plus he's technically owed more than $21MM next year -- he has a $5MM buyout on his 2022 option, and that has to be factored in. There's just not any surplus value there to trade controllable young talent away for.

Keith

2:09

Half of the Athletics bullpen are pending free agents. Should the A's consider trading Sean Manaea for relief arms?

Steve Adams

2:11

The market will be flooded with quality relievers this winter by virtue of clubs declining options and non-tendering solid, arb-eligible arms. There should be plenty of opportunity to get solid bullpen help without trading two years of Manaea, who has been really, really good since a fluky bad start to the season.

2:13

39 IP, 2.77 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 32-to-4 K/BB ratio in his past seven outings for Manaea. He seems to have become undervalued by A's fans after that rough start to the season. It felt like multiple times per week someone would ask me if he's "done," which always seemed crazy to me. Manaea is good. He's one of their five best starters, and he won't be too expensive next year.

That's the kind of piece the A's need to build a contending roster since they can't afford conventional market prices for mid-rotation arms like him.

Joe

2:14

Liking the Garrett Crochet experiment so far. If he turns in a KRod-like performance, think there's a chance the Sox keep him in the bullpen, or is the Chris Sale track 100% definitely the one he's on?

Steve Adams

2:15

He's been fun so far! I can't imagine the Sox would pass on giving him a chance to start, though. If he runs into injuries or just can't maintain his stuff a second or third time through a big league order after a year or year and a half, maybe then they'll just put him in the 'pen, but the upside is too intriguing in the rotation not to try it.

Ari

2:16

Should I, as a Reds fan, be disappointed in Nick Senzel's performance? Or do we have a warped understanding of what top prospects should be doing once they reach the major leagues?

Steve Adams

2:19

The expectations people put on prospects are outrageous in 2020. Senzel's struggles in 2020 are obviously alarming, but he also hasn't been consistently on the roster. He was out a bit early in the year after reporting Covid symptoms but testing negative, and then he missed multiple weeks on the Covid IL since. I don't know that it's ever been confirmed he had the virus, but look at Yoan Moncada's comments on what it's like trying to get going after being down with a rough case of it. If Senzel had it and was symptomatic, then who knows how he's feeling in the aftermath as he tries to ramp back up on the fly and in a postseason race?

He's still 25 with less than a year of MLB ABs under his belt.

2:20

I'd say it's fine to be disappointed, but a day that Alex Gordon retires is a good day to remember that not everyone breaks out on a nice, neat, linear Acuna/Soto-esque path. Those guys are the exception to the rule.

Gordon took 3-4 years to become the Gordon everyone thought he'd be. There's a lot to like about Senzel still.

Strikeouts suck

2:20

Reacting to Matt Snyder's recent article on CBS Sports "Why it's time for Major League Baseball to ban the shift," Matt touches on the rise in strikeouts and the electric stuff of MLB pitchers these days which I think is the fundamental issue, but why not be creative and consider lowering the mound again to improve batter's chances of putting the ball in play? Watching so many ABs end with no balls in play gets hard even for die hard fans.

Steve Adams

2:22

I'd rather see the mound lowered than see shifts banned. Banning the shift is asinine to me. There's nothing in the rulebook that says where defenders have to stand; those positions were created because teams were trying to evenly distribute their fielders to minimize the chance of a ball getting through. Now we just have data driving those decisions and making them more informed.

We've had defensive shifts forever -- they were just more situational. "No doubles" defense in late innings, playing the infield in during a bunt situation or with the bases loaded, etc.... those are all defensive shifts.

Ted Williams was shifted 80 years ago.

2:23

I agree that the lack of balls in play makes for a less exciting product for many, but I would hope there are dozens of other routes explored before we start telling defenders they have to stand in a certain spot or designated zone.

Dave Mc

2:23

Which Orioles rookie do you think succeeds going forward? Hays, Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer, other?

Steve Adams

2:25

Can't it be multiple?? I think Mountcastle is going to mash without much defensive value. I've been impressed by Akin in limited looks and think his Statcast profile -- plus spin on the heater, good spin on the slider, big swinging-strike rate -- all bode well for his future.

2:26

Mets put Conforto on the IL, ending his season

Well, I guess they're not technically mathematically eliminated yet, so ... ending his regular season.

Still got that 2% chance to sneak in!

Dave Mc

2:26

I'm a lifetime Orioles fan. I absolutely do not believe multiple prospects can succeed.

Steve Adams

2:26

Ha!

2:27

I hear you on that front -- but there's a good basis starting to form there

Bern

2:27

Given the low cost of "rentals" at the deadline when do people start being a little critical of the Dodgers for not using their farm depth and at a minimum buying insurance for their pitching staff? I get they have a talented roster but it's almost like the Dodger front office simply doesn't wish to pay the price that every WS team before them has paid. At a minimum add one more high leverage arm to the pen, another guy that Roberts can trust and make bullpen management easier for him. It's not a strong suit of his and is amplified by all the starters who don't go deep in games or in the case of Buehler how m

Steve Adams

2:30

I wish I could dig up this report off hand but I found it interesting from years ago. I can't recall whether it was an on-record statement from one of their front office folk or an anonymous one (probably the latter), but basically saying that reliever performance is volatile enough on a yearly basis ... it's practically impossible to know who of 10-12 available bullpen pieces will have a good 15 innings post-trade and who will blow up (unless you're talking about capital-E Elite arms). So they went with the cheapest available and grabbed Axford.

I wonder if some of that is at play here ... they don't have anyone who is really pitching terribly in their 'pen, so making a move would almost be doing it just for the sake of saying you made a trade.

They also have a pretty stacked 40-man roster. I guess you could boot a Luke Raley, but they're light on true flotsam to cast aside.

Cub Fan

2:31

With teams likely to finish with the same records in the NL, what are the postseason tiebreakers this year? Different for inter-division? (ie if Reds and Brewers finish 30-30 you could use head-to-head to avoid a play-in game, but if Philly and the Giants both finish 30-30 there's no way to do so)

Steve Adams

2:32

I believe it goes: