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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

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Steve Adams

2:37

If anything JTR probably hates that the Mets, one of his most logical suitors, is making a push to sign someone else. McCann being willing to jump the market as opposed to waiting to market himself as a fallback for teams that miss on Realmuto is not at all a good thing for Realmuto, in my view.

Joe

2:38

Is there any further evidence that Tony LaRussa is scaring free agents away from the White Sox (Beyond Marcus Stroman)? Or will it most likely have no impact, or at least no visible impact?

Steve Adams

2:38

Stroman probably only said that because he knew he was accepting the QO.

That said, you can be absolutely certain that he's not the only player who feels that way. The others just won't say it, because even if they won't sign to play there, they don't want to broadcast that fact and hurt their leverage.

2:39

(leverage with other teams, I mean)

Liam Hendricks

2:39

If you're me, what's the most attractive option? Yankees? Braves? Or somewhere where you're more clear cut "the guy"

Steve Adams

2:41

Hendriks is 32 years old, has $12MM in career earnings and is two years removed from going unclaimed on waivers. The most attractive option is the biggest check, whether it's from the Yankees, the Braves, the Pirates or the Kiwoom Heroes in the KBO. He'll take the cash, and he's earned it. Good for him.

Cachorros

2:41

Any thoughts on Kyle Sch's landing place?

Steve Adams

2:42

As is the case with so many others, it'll depend on the status of the universal DH. I would bet he doesn't make a decision on where to sign until we get some resolution on that front.

And, with Schwarber, Duvall, Rosario, Dahl and others all now joining the outfield market, I have to imagine the MLBPA is upping its urgency to get resolution one way or another with the league.

Mr. Beane

2:42

Is 2021 a step back for the A's? Seems they lost some leadership in the clubhouse...

Steve Adams

2:45

They still have the Matts at the corners, a deep, talented rotation, and one of the game's more underrated players in center (Ramon Laureano). Are they losing more than the Astros, who have Brantley and Springer both hitting the market while losing Verlander to Tommy John surgery?

I expect the A's to find some bargains to fill out the bullpen and to round out the lineup, as they do most years, and to be right back in the thick of the AL West mix.

Jeremy

2:46

Jays more likely to trade for a big name (Arenado, Lindor, Darvish, Snell) or sign a big FA? Seems like American FAs never really sign in Toronto

Steve Adams

2:47

I think it's fair to say that in the past, we've seen the Jays as a bit of a tougher sell for some free agents, yes. I also think it's fair to say that this year, they will be one of the few teams aggressively pursuing their top targets and spending at something relatively close to normal levels. Money talks.

As for the trade market, though, I find it perfectly plausible that they land a Lindor, Darvish, Sonny Gray or something as well, sure.

Bernie Brewer

2:47

What does a Corey Kluber deal look like at this moment?

Steve Adams

2:49

It'll depend on how teams view his medicals, which we can't really know since he's only just starting up a throwing program. If he's healthy, I think he should top Drew Smyly.

We had him at 1/12 back in October, and that was under the assumption that he'd be healthy. But that was also under the assumption that the market would be harsh for most free agents, and it's been quite good for starters. If a team is convinced Kluber is healthy, it wouldn't shock me to see him top that $12MM prediction we put out there.

Mr Roctober

2:49

The free agent pitchers that have signed so far have all signed for more than MLBTR predicted. And while there were a lot of non-tenders, there were fewer than many were expecting. And the pre-tender contracts were reasonably in line with expected arbitration salaries. At this point do you think you underestimated contract values across the board when preparing your top 50 predictions, or do you expect things to still level out to the lower spending levels that were predicted?

Steve Adams

2:51

The starting pitching market has been way more aggressive than we expected. There was still a record level of non-tenders, and I think some people avoided a NT by taking a pretty mediocre pre-tender deal. Some of the strong pre-tender pacts were because teams like the Twins and and a few others just said "We're not going anywhere near arb this year, so let's find a middle ground and stop trying to squeeze each other for every last dollar." Kudos to the clubs that did that.

I do think we'll still see some pretty weak deals as the offseason goes on. The early stages of the winter are always pretty good for those who can find deals in that time. Once we get into January and February, it'll start looking a lot worse for the players.

2:52

Even the early stages have been ugly for relievers. Trevor May got $15.5MM, and I've seen some suggest that's a good omen for relievers, but I feel the opposite. May should've done much better than that in a normal market.

I think under the confines of the current climate, his reps did well to get him that deal. But in a normal offseason, We'd have been predicting May at something like $25-27MM over three years.

Guest

2:53

Would any of the non-tenders have made your top 50 free agents list?

Steve Adams

2:54

Yeah, I'd have pushed for Archie Bradley, Eddie Rosario and Kyle Schwarber all to be on there. I'm sure we'd have considered Adam Duvall as well, but I guess I just didn't find his NT as surprising as Braves fans did.

Alan

2:55

How close are we to learning the full list of affiliates. This drip by drip is cruel to the communities whose teams are on the bubble.

Steve Adams

2:55

The "drip" is only coming because news of individual affiliates is leaking out via other sources. I think MLB's plan has always been to wait to try to announce it all at once. They've tried to encourage teams not to announce anything themselves.

Mr Roctober

2:57

When are we going to see the leaderboard/who people picked for the Top 50 Free Agent contest?

Steve Adams

2:57

I'm not sure. I'll ask Tim and have a better answer next week. Sorry.

SteveM

2:57

Everyone talks about Eddie Rosario as a defensive liabilty. He's got a good arm. That has to count for something.

Steve Adams

2:59

He has a strong arm but is inaccurate with it at times and makes gaffes like airmailing the cutoff man or throwing to the wrong base as well. I think Rosario is a better -- or at least more talented -- defender than metrics make him out to be, but I don't think he's the defensive star he was early in his career. Injuries have impacted him some in recent years, as has the natural fact that he's just slowed down a bit as he's gotten into his late 20s (like many players do).

I don't think you can consider him much more than an average defender in the corners, and it's unlikely that he's going to markedly improve at this point.

Chief

3:00

How do the Redbirds address their lack of outfield production?

Steve Adams

3:01

A full season of Carlson will help, and I can see them adding one veteran to perhaps push Bader into more of a reserve role where they can benefit from his glove without requiring so much of him at the plate. In general, though, I don't think you can expect major upgrades from the Cardinals when they're putting out such clear signals that they don't have much money to work with.

Philly A's

3:01

Who plays up the middle for the A's? I can't see Pinder and Kemp as full time ss/2b

Steve Adams

3:04

Agreed. I think the A's have to be thrilled the Angels filled SS by trading for Iglesias (though you could argue the A's should've done that themselves). I wonder if they won't just sit back and wait to see which of Didi, Semien and Andrelton sees his market collapse, then make a low-ish one-year offer to that player.

The 2B market is already flooded. That might be the single worst position to call home as a free agent. They'll be able to get someone from the Cesar Hernandez/Tommy La Stella/Kolten Wong/Jonathan Schoop/Enrique Hernandez/Jonathan Villar bucket on the cheap later this winter.

Jaysfordays

3:04

Any truth to the Realmuto to Toronto rumours? He’s great... but seems like a luxury for a team with other holes to fill.

Steve Adams

3:05

One real good way to fill a lot of those holes would be to trade young catching talent to clubs who need catchers but can't afford Realmuto.

(Yes, I think they are legitimately interested in signing him)

Santa

3:05

What do you want for Christmas?

Steve Adams

3:06

A safe, scalable, widely accessible/distributed Covid-19 vaccine. Can you lend a hand with that, St. Nick?

Zaidi

3:06

Lots of released guys this year. I know we're looking at Lester (and hopefully more so Kluber) but Jose Urena just got a train ticket out and he might look a little better outside of 5 starts against Acuna.

Steve Adams

3:07

Giants should have their sights set higher than that. I mean, Urena can certainly be a second or third addition (fourth, if you count Gausman), but if Farhan Zaidi (their president of baseball ops) is out here saying the playoffs are a goal, Urena can't be a major piece of that puzzle.

Ted

3:07

Wow! Are you surprised by all of the non-tenders? Schwarber, Archie Bradley? Some really good players weren’t offered contracts, which means a big player movement. Are we entering a new era for MLB, or will this pass when the COVID is history?

Steve Adams

3:09

Not surprised by Schwarber. We've been suggesting that for quite some time.

Archie Bradley and David Dahl were the only two who really caught me off guard. Maikel Franco to a little bit of a lesser extent, but that's only because of the comments from Dayton Moore I referenced earlier. Were it not for those I'd have considered him a non-tender candidate.

Snell

3:09

White sox a fit?

Steve Adams

3:10

Any contending team is a "fit" for Blake Snell, but if you want the White Sox to get him, you're looking at dealing from the bucket that includes Kopech, Vaughn, Madrigal, etc.

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