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Steve Adams

2:04

Greetings all

2:05

Sorry to be a couple minutes late -- chaotic day here obviously!

Jeremy

2:05

Jays getting Springer JT or Bauer? Who seems most likely?

Steve Adams

2:06

Springer seems likeliest to me at this point, though I find Bauer plausible as well. Mets would have to go over the tax to sign Springer, which I don't think is a huge deal but also may not be something Cohen was anticipating in Year 1. And since they're good candidates to go over the tax in 2022 and 2023, they may not want to start compounding things early

2:07

Plus, Jays got resolution on their DJ LeMahieu pursuit. Knowing he's going back to the Bronx might help rein in their focus on Springer or Bauer. At this point, I think one of Springer, Bauer or JTR goes to Toronto.

Atkins

2:07

Is Ryu, Pearson, Striping, Roark, Ray + the depth I have enough? Should I only focus on a RP + 1/2 impact bats?

Steve Adams

2:09

I think that's a serviceable rotation -- Stripling, Ray and Roark are all better than they showed in '20, and I love Pearson -- but the Jays can add Springer and still get a more meaningful arm in the rotation. (E.g. Odorizzi, Paxton or frankly, even Bauer)

I expect they'll still add a starter of some note, even if they do land Springer.

StevieM

2:09

A guy like Kluber would seem a fit in Minnesota. Falvey knows him from his time in Cleveland and Wes Johnson, Twins pitching coach, seems to have a gift in revitalizing pitchers. Thought?

Steve Adams

2:10

Sure, but you could make similar arguments for several teams. Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro were in the Indians' front office when they acquired Kluber. Eric Cressey is the Yankees' director of player health & performance, and Kluber has been working out at his facility in Florida. He held his showcase there. The Red Sox are close to his Massachusetts home.

Jorge78

2:11

I'm confused about Hendriks contract. I've see in categorized as 3/54 but isn't it really 4/69? Even if the White Sox don't want him for year 4 they still have to pay full freight (yes, deferred). How will this contract be categorized for luxury tax purposes? 4/17.25? 3/23? Thanks!

Steve Adams

2:12

There's no way the contract gets to $69MM. Hendriks is promised $54MM -- either over a three-year term or a four-year term. It's basically this:

$1MM signing bonus
$12MM 2021
$13MM 2022-23
$15MM option for 2024 which, if bought out, is deferred over a 10-year period.

2:13

Since he's guaranteed the full $54MM regardless, the luxury hit is $18MM annually (or close to it -- it's actually slightly less once the deferrals are factored in, but only by a matter of a few hundred thousand)

The contract carries a zero-dollar luxury hit in year four, if the option is exercised. (And if the new CBA hasn't completely overhauled the luxury tax structure)

Tommy2

2:14

What type of return would the Cubs want from the Dodgers for Kris Bryant? Would Gonsolin do it? Too much for one-year of Bryant? What's your fair return?

Steve Adams

2:14

There's no way the Dodgers would give up Gonsolin for one year of Bryant at $18MM+

2:15

The return on Bryant would be negligible, just as it was with Darvish. I'd be pretty surprised if he fetched a quality big leaguer or a prospect of particular note, honestly.

Birthday boi

2:15

Now that the season looks like it will be 162, how crazy will free agency be the next few weeks?

Steve Adams

2:16

It'll pick up more due to the fact that Spring Training is looming after Manfred said he expects things to start on time.

The length of the season does nothing to guarantee the owners any money. If it's 162 games without attendance or even at something like 20% capacity, owners will still say they're losing money.

Brian A

2:16

I think that Realmuto is a more valuable pick up than Springer.What is your opinion ?

Steve Adams

2:17

I would rather have JTR in 2021-22 -- maybe into 2023. I think Springer is a safer long-term play because his value isn't as tied to defense at such a demanding position. Catchers historically don't age well, and if JTR has to start spending time at first base, he's a much more ordinary-looking (albeit still good) player.

Don

2:17

Seems like the yankees would at least get a veteran catcher for triple A. like they did last year with Legend Eric Kratz.Who is available out there?

Steve Adams

2:18

From our free agent list (age in parentheses):

Alex Avila (34)
Jason Castro (34)
Robinson Chirinos (36)
Tyler Flowers (35)
Jeff Mathis (38)
Yadier Molina (38)
Josh Phegley (33)
Wilson Ramos (33)
J.T. Realmuto (30)
Rene Rivera (37)
Austin Romine (32)
Matt Wieters (35)
Tony Wolters (29)

List: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/2020-21-mlb-free-agents.html
Tracker: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021-mlb-free-agent-tracker/

Jim

2:19

What more are Phillies doing to improve bullpen? Alvarado & Coonrod are a start ? Josh Hader has previously been rumored, any recent talks on him or others ?

Steve Adams

2:20

I'm going to assume this question came in before Archie Bradley was signed, but he's a pretty notable upgrade for them.

I've never bought Hader as a legitimate trade candidate -- not right now anyway. Next summer if the Brewers are out of it, or next winter when his arb price could climb to $10MM+. At that point he'll be a surefire trade piece.

Back to the Phillies, I'd look for them to add another one-year veteran, at least. I like the Alvarado pickup, though, and I dig the Archie signing as well.

Luke

2:20

Do the Rays view Mike Brosseau as an everyday option for third base? Or Randy Arozarena an everyday option for center field?

Steve Adams

2:22

The Rays wouldn't move Kiermaier out of CF (unless they traded him, of course). Even if they did move Kiermaier, though, I'd bet on Margot in CF over Arozarena.

Brosseau seems more like a platoon bat, and I think in general the Rays view pretty few guys as true "everyday" players. They turnover the lineup based on matchups pretty extensively.

Peter

2:22

What would it take for the Giants to land Andrew Benintendi? He seems to fit what Farhan says he's looking for.

Steve Adams

2:24

Zaidi said he's looking for complementary hitters and is content with the starting lineup they have. I could see Benintendi as a potential upgrade over Dubon -- sure -- but Benintendi also only has two years of control left. Getting two years of Benny for six-plus years of a near-MLB prospect, which is probably what the Red Sox are hoping for, doesn't seem to fit with the Giants' current vision.

Steve

2:25

How can the Yankees be sitting on their starting rotation this year? Am I missing something?

Steve Adams

2:25

Their whole winter has revolved around DJ. Now that they're wrapping up with him, I expect them to move to add another starter in the near future.

Matt

2:26

Who is your most underrated Starter and Reliever free agent left on the market?

Steve Adams

2:27

For starters, I feel like Jose Quintana has become criminally underrated because people look at the Eloy trade and say the Cubs screwed up. They did, sure, but Quintana is and has been a damn good pitcher even if he wasn't worth Eloy/Cease. His 2020 injuries weren't arm-related, either. I think Jake Odorizzi is probably underrated by fans too, but I expect he'll be more valued by teams. If we're talking total fliers, Matt Moore had a nice year in Japan.

2:28

Relievers, probably Yusmeiro Petit? He puts up numbers year after year but never gets the love because he's a righty sitting in the upper 80s without gaudy spin rates. Good, good pitcher though.

2:29

Tyler Clippard is probably up there among relievers, too. I was surprised the Twins got him at $2.75MM last year, and I bet he'll go for something similarly perplexing this year (in terms of how affordable it seems, that is)

Phillip

2:29

With the Andrew Benintendi trade rumors heating up, Atlanta seems like the perfect landing spot. If Boston takes back Inciarte, could you see a couple of mid range pitching prospects like Tucker Davidson and Touki Toussaint joining him?

Steve Adams

2:31

Readers probably get irritated by how often I shoot down trade scenarios in these chats, ha, but I actually find this one fairly sensible. Inciarte is a comparable replacement for JBJ at a cheaper rate, the salary saved for the Braves would make them more willing to part with some MLB-ready depth. The Red Sox won't want to move Benny solely for far-off prospects. I don't know about this exact package, of course, but conceptually it's solid.

TwinsFanJoe

2:32

When are the Twins finally going to do something? I get "waiting for the market to come to them", but man, this is getting tedious.

Steve Adams

2:33

Other fanbases who can say the exact same thing:

Red Sox
Blue Jays
Yankees (until this morning, anyway)
Athletics
The entire NL Central
Phillies
Marlins

I'm probably forgetting some.

The point is that there are many, many teams -- including playoff clubs from 2020 -- who have basically done nothing despite having the financial capacity to do so. It's just been a pretty tepid winter in general.

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