JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Steve Adams

2:02

Greetings! Thanks, as always, for joining.

guest

2:02

Could you comment on whether Tim D. will be shutting down MLBTR on March 23 b/c the subscription model has not brought sufficient revenue?

Steve Adams

2:03

Ha, he will not be doing that, no. That was someone posting under his name as an impostor on the PollDaddy comments section, where we have no control over moderating comments (as opposed to on our actual comment boards). The best we can do is close that option so no one can comment at PollDaddy, which we usually do, but forgot to in that instance.

We're focused on adding *more* to our Front Office package (without raising the price) -- not taking away or shutting it down.

Rick

2:04

How is the Luxury tax of a given team computed? Where do signing bonuses and performance escalators fit in or do they?

Steve Adams

2:07

Signing bonuses are counted in guaranteed money, so they count toward a team's luxury obligations just like a player's salary. Tax obligations are based on the sum of the average annual values for a team, money paid to released players (or paid to other teams to offset salary in a trade) and on player benefits (which is about $13-15MM per year as I recall).

Incentives and escalators do factor in, but only if they're actually reached. The tax is calculated after the season, not prior, so teams can start the season looking like they'll avoid the tax but go over by adding players via trade. The opposite is also true ... they might be in position to pay the tax but could trade away salary midseason to drop below the line.

James

2:07

The braves had a pitcher Luiz Gohara who made it to the majors very quickly and then the bottom seemed to drop out. They traded to angels but he seems to have disappeared.

Steve Adams

2:07

Shoulder injuries really derailed him

2:07

What is your take on the Tatis contract? Good or bad for baseball. And who is on deck for the next Tatis like contract?

Steve Adams

2:12

Why would it be bad for baseball for players to get money? I just really don't understand why some fans are OK with owners pocketing hundreds of millions of dollars -- billions over a long enough time period -- but recoil at the idea of a player making $30MM+.

Good for Tatis, and good for baseball. Pay the players.

As for whether it was a good deal for the team, I actually think they got a good price on him. I recognize that some fans are taken aback to see a guy without a full season's worth of games get that kind of money, but he's at two full years of MLB service; once he reaches arbitration and (assuming he plays in 2021 like he has in 2019-20) cashes in on a $10MM+ salary in arb, he might not feel as compelled to take a long-term deal.

If you figure he makes $35-40MM in arbitration, they basically gave him the Machado deal (10/300), which isn't really bad for them.

Andrew

2:12

Any potential landing spots for Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt if they were to be traded before the season?

Steve Adams

2:12

Neither is going to be traded before the season.

Randall Gilmore

2:13

Steve, most pundits I read seem to say a work stoppage is inevitable.

Steve Adams

2:14

I don't know that it's inevitable, but it's far likelier than at any point in the past two decades. The distrust between MLB and the MLBPA is enormous at this point, and I do have a hard time seeing how they're going to bridge the gap on the legion of issues they have to discuss.

Derek Falvey

2:14

Shouldn't I bring back Odorizzi. Pitching depth wins championship...looking at the Dodgers as an example.

Steve Adams

2:16

Pitching depth *can* win championships. It doesn't always. The Nationals used five to six pitchers almost exclusively in the World Series and had a hugely top-heavy staff in '19.

I'm sure the Twins would be fine happy to bring Odorizzi back, but they don't appear comfortable with his asking price (reportedly in the three-year, $45MM range). Really, they haven't seemed inclined to give out any multi-year deals all winter -- although I do know they made at least a pair of small two-year offers to some relievers who signed elsewhere.

Charles

2:17

Obviously teams like the Padres, Mets, Dodgers, Jays have made moves. Which teams in MLB do you think have had the best offseasons? The worst?

Steve Adams

2:21

The only thing the Rockies have done this winter is trade one of the best players in franchise history and $50MM for a fifth starter/swingman and a bunch of marginal prospects -- they're an easy winner of the "worst offseason" distinction. The Indians and Cubs would get honorable mentions for "worst."

I like the offseasons of each of the teams you listed and would add the Phillies as a club that's had another pretty decent run. I like how the Giants have approached their 2021 roster -- buckets of upside plays with a recognition that they need a lot to break their way to be competitive at all. Creates plenty of opportunities for trades this summer and an outside chance that everyone's healthy and they stay in the thing.

Marc

2:22

Would it be wiser for a guy like Javy Baez to sign an extension now and not have to compete with the stellar class next year, or play out this season hoping to get back to his 2018-19 numbers? Actually, do any of those other guys like Seager, Lindor, Correa sign extensions early or wait?

Steve Adams

2:24

I can see Lindor signing an extension this spring. I definitely don't think Seager or Story will. Baez is the toughest call of the bunch. The Cubs haven't been spending money, and he's coming off a pretty dismal season. At the same time, those two sides have both been vocal about wanting to get something done. If I were ranking the likelihood of an extension for any of the Big Five, I'd go (most to least likely):

Lindor
Baez
Correa
Seager
Story

Monsieur Moncada

2:24

A suggestion rather than a question. For the month of March, it would be cool if you guys did an "MLBTR Grading the Offseason" summary article and reader poll for each team, one team per day for the 30 days of March leading into Opening Day.

Steve Adams

2:25

We do Offseason Reviews every year and for the past several years have included that exact "Grade their offseason" poll for readers at the end of each.

Yewed

2:25

Only one reliever got 3 years and only 3 starters got over 1 year deals this offseason. Are teams more hesitant or are they looking towards next offseason?

Steve Adams

2:26

It's a function of many teams not being willing to spend at all this year, several big-market clubs looking to get out of luxury territory and some clubs wanting to wait until next year. I generally think we'll see fewer three-year deals for relievers moving forward, just because today's brand of front office is so risk-averse on that front, but this winter was definitely accelerated in that regard.

DTownWarrior78

2:26

Please let me know what you think of the Detroit Tigers future with prospects like Torkelson, Greene, Mize, Manning, Skubal, etc coming soon? With these prospects coming up very soon, do you see them in contention sooner or later?

Steve Adams

2:28

It's not only that, but the fact that they have nothing on the books outside of Miguel Cabrera moving forward and have historically been willing to spend as highly as any team in baseball. Granted, that was under the late Mike Ilitch, and we don't know how his son, Chris, will spend when he has a roster that actually has the makings of a competitive group.

But it's a bright-looking future all the same, as far as I'm concerned. The AL Central is going to be pretty dang good in a couple years.

Twin Citian

2:28

Read you are a St Paulite- how excited are you to see Triple A ⚾️ at CHS this season or (a dream deferred) in 2022?

Steve Adams

2:29

I am, and until July I lived within walking distance of CHS Field. Still in St. Paul, but a more residential part now. Either way, I look forward to having the option of both Triple-A and MLB games, although I'll miss the indie games. Saints games, when they were in the American Association, were a blast and that park is really nice.

Dean

2:29

With Gardner signed for the Yanks, Taughman would be available. He plays excellent defense and can play Center. Who might be interested? Houston, Boston and others. Can they pick up a good prospect with options left?

Steve Adams

2:31

I don't think they'd get much. Tauchman is out of minor league options, 30 years old, and has basically no MLB track record outside of 2019's juiced ball bonanza. I'm not even certain he'd be claimed if they put him on waivers, and I'd say there's a pretty decent chance that he is designated for assignment before camp is over now that Gardner is back.

John

2:31

It seems to me that with the quality of free agents available now, someone may look into taking a chance on Scotter Gennett.. I don't hear much about him at all, yet going back to a couple of years before his injury, he had quite good stats in most all categories.. Would it not make sense for someone to bring him back a lower price prove to me year for a team in need of a Middle infielder?

Steve Adams

2:33

Gennett is out of baseball right now because he felt insulted by the offers he received when he reached the market last. He's not going to get offered anything more now, obviously, and if he was content to go focus on his family and sit out on principle last year, I don't see why it'd be any different now.

If he decides he wants to come back, I'm sure someone would give him a minor league deal, but he'd need to first decide he wants to get back in the game and is willing to do that. There's no indication that's the case.

Will G.

2:34

Hey, Steve, thanks for taking my question. Have you folks heard anything about the status of Oscar Luis Colás? He was eligible to be signed as a free agent as of 15 January, but I have not read anything about him.

Steve Adams

2:35

Most teams had already committed the bulk of their international signing pools by the time he was made a free agent. I don't expect he'll sign until next year's period.

2:36

I would say, too, that it's best to exercise caution with him. His agents are being enormously disingenuous by trying to market him as the "Cuban Ohtani," and you'll never see him referenced here as such because it's pure marketing-speak and not grounded in reality. Colas can reach 98 mph with a fastball, which is super interesting, but he's pitched 3 1/3 professional innings.

Ohtani had a 2.52 ERA in 624 innings when he became available to MLB clubs.

2:38

We've seen a lot of hype built up around prospects of this nature -- and sometimes we've regrettably bought the narrative and probably contributed to said hype -- but it's far more common for that to be all talk from the agents than it is for the hype to be real.

I wrote about Colas and some of my thoughts on that here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/oscar-colas-cuba-mlb-free-agent...

Laertes

2:39

What would you say the odds are one of the big 5 SS of next offseason ends up signing on to play a different position?

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