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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat With Anthony Franco
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Anthony Franco
1:59
Hey everyone, looking forward to another chat!
Bob T.
2:00
The latest proposal from MLB to the PA doesn’t appear to move the needle at all. If anything the proposal for the luxury tax is a big step back. What do you think will happen now?
Jon Becker
2:00
Why does it feel like everyone on Twitter is freaking out about yesterday's meeting? Went exactly as I thought it would, and it seems like the league at least changed its offer at least a LITTLE. I just don't see the season being shortened, the owners want to keep revenues too!
Anthony Franco
2:01
Might as well start with yesterday's news
2:02
I'm pretty aligned with Jon on this one. It's about what I expected. I don't know that it's a big step back; the league's desired tax thresholds have been known for a while now, and they're nowhere near what the union wants
2:03
I was a bit disappointed there weren't real signs of progress, but it seems both sides are kind of committed to brinkmanship here before moving towards the middle (which they'll obviously each have to do in the long run)
2:04
I'm still optimistic we don't lose regular season games. Cancelation of some exhibition stuff I'd probably guess is around 50/50 now
Question Asker
2:04
If you were looking for inexpensive swingmen -- guys who could provide depth for the starting staff with the occasional spot start and possibly move into the rotation if an opening day starter got injured, and who could also be expected to function well as a reliever -- who would you target?
Anthony Franco
2:05
I've been burned on this one like eight times, but I'm still kind of waiting on a Vince Velasquez breakout
At the very least, I'd like to take a shot with a relief option as a fallback
2:07
Velasquez's numbers last year were terrible and he got released by the Phillies. But he had a top 25 swinging strike rate among starters in the second half, so it's not like his stuff has disappeared. If he can just keep his home run rate somewhere near league average...
Darrell
2:08
Hello Anthony, thanks for the chat! What would the Braves need to give up for Nick Pratto of the Royals? Would a Kyle Wright, drew waters package be enough to get dialogue started?
Anthony Franco
2:08
You don't really see this kind of prospect for prospect trade. I think teams have a greater opinion of their own prospects (not as much as fanbases do, but enough) than of other teams' prospects enough that they're reluctant to make this kind of deal
2:10
As for the specific proposal you threw out there, I'd rather have Pratto than Waters/Wright. Waters' huge strikeout totals in the minors are scary. I still have some hope for Wright based on the velocity, ok strikeout numbers and grounders, but he'd be more of a buy-low flier than anything at this point
2:11
These guys are pretty instructive as to how quickly prospect valuations can change though. Twelve months ago, taking Waters over Pratto would've been an easy call. Given their respective 2021 seasons, I think that's flipped
mmddyyyy
2:11
Does an international draft discourage tanking?
Anthony Franco
2:11
Nah, if anything I think it'd be a slight pro-tank measure, since the teams with the worst records would probably have the highest picks (or lottery odds) in an international draft too
2:13
Reducing tanking isn't really the point of the league pushing for an international draft. It's more about "cleaning up" the process, where teams/trainers are both incentivized to hammer out verbal agreements with players as young as 13 or 14 because they're trying to beat other clubs to the punch
2:14
I'm on board with regulating that out, although I think it's unfortunate that the way to do so probably involves taking the players' choices about their first pro team away from them
T-Mobile
2:14
We all hope to have a 162 season and a long enough spring training to get everyone in shape. However, it could be that are stuck with a 90 game season and a 2 week spring training. If this is the case, and the season is cut short, will that tend to favor veteran teams and reduce the chances of less veteran teams? And will that affect the free agent market?
Anthony Franco
2:14
I'd be shocked if we lose that much of the regular season, to be clear
2:15
But in that kind of event, my inclination is it'd disproportionately favor teams with better depth, since the injury risks (particularly for pitchers) would probably be heightened with an especially tight Spring Training period
2:16
It'd also just make things easier for underdogs. Cutting the season length almost in half makes it easier for less talented teams to get hot and make a run. The smaller the sample, the more variability in results you're  naturally going to get
Alex
2:16
If the lockout stretches on long enough, is it possible that there won't be much or any window for trades to occur before the season? Could it resemble the pre-lockout free agent frenzy, with buying teams too busy with free agents to negotiate trades?
Anthony Franco
2:17
Yeah I think it's going to be a crazy few weeks. While I'm dying for the lockout to end, not looking forward to the possible frenzy. The two weeks pre-lockout were pretty grueling from a coverage perspective
Jed
2:17
Mick Abel for Matt Chapman--who says no?
Anthony Franco
2:18
I think Abel's a reasonable starting point, but A's are going to want more than just him. There's a ton of risk in any Low-A pitching prospect, even one as talented as he is
Prospects
2:18
Do you use baseball America or mlb.com more for your prospect research?
mmddyyyy
2:18
Which prospect rankings do you prefer?
Anthony Franco
2:19
I typically go to Baseball America and FanGraphs for prospect stuff
Crash
2:19
I know Nate Pearson’s stock has dropped due to his inability to stay healthy, but has this also affected his ceiling?
Anthony Franco
2:20
I don't know that injuries have reduced his overall upside so much as I'd say they've decreased the probability he ever gets there
2:21
He's maintained the incredible raw stuff. I think there's still a non-zero chance he becomes an ace. But injuries have robbed him of reps that might've helped to iron out the command, and they probably limit how heavily the Jays can lean on him (even if he's healthy) over the next year or two
2:22
So I think the odds are higher now than they were a year or two ago that Pearson's "only" going to be a good pretty good reliever, but I don't think his absolute peak outcome has changed
Giants Fan
2:22
Do the smart teams seem to start trading off their minor league players - when they perceive that they "now have a glut" of players in the minor leagues?   If so, would you say that the Giants are in that position now?   And, what other teams have already reached that status?
Anthony Franco
2:22
Yeah I think this kind of self-evaluation is key. The Rays and Guardians jump to mind as teams that are typically doing this kind of churn at the top of the roster every year, typically around the Rule 5 protection deadline
2:24
The Giants? Idk if I have a great feel on that yet. It's a very good front office overall, obviously, so it wouldn't surprise me if they're also quite good at knowing which of their prospects are most expendable. But I'm not sure the farm system has been deep enough since Zaidi and Harris took over to gauge that specifically yet
A's Fan
2:24
If a salary floor doesn't get installed (and I doubt it happens if the Players don't include one in their counter-proposal) then do you think it likely that the slash payroll to the $40-50 MM range that was reported back in November?
Anthony Franco
2:25
I doubt they get that far. Trading three of Olson, Chapman, Manaea and Bassitt puts them between $50MM and $60MM, which feels more plausible to me
2:26
To end up around $40MM, they'd have to trade basically all those guys plus potentially Montas and have to find a taker for one of Piscotty or Andrus. That's an incredible teardown to pull off, and I don't think they want any part of something that extreme
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