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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat With Anthony Franco
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2:47
Do you think the Rockies will send down Brendan Rodgers to get his stroke back?
Anthony Franco
2:47
Yeah I think we're at the point where they should send him down, even if just for a mental reset. He's always going to have some swing-and-miss, but I don't think he's destined to be this bad
2:48
He's not making contact with anything right now though. I don't know how long you can let him go on like that before you give him an easier assignment to click back in
Kebryan Hayes
2:48
Am I overpaid with my new extension?
Anthony Franco
2:49
No, I think it's a great deal for the Pirates. Even if Hayes is "just" an average hitter with Gold Glove caliber third base defense, that's a well above-average everyday player
2:50
As Steve wrote about a couple weeks back, they also front-loaded it so they'll have more payroll flexibility when they want to contend in a couple years, and it's probably awesome for Pirates fans to have a guy they can view as a building block. I thought Pittsburgh played it really well
Slumpin Umps
2:50
I mean there’s no way Angel Hernandez should still have a job. Or call games. Or be on national television. Umpires should in theory be invisible and let the game play out, it’s bizarre how often he finds himself in those circumstances. Other jobs would fire you.
Anthony Franco
2:51
I'm guessing the umpires' union has some say in this, but yeah, it's not a great look for an umpire to be as famous as he is
RAGBRAI
2:51
Last year the Brewers made an early move that paid off. They are still in need of offensive, is there another move they can make early and if so who may be available?
Anthony Franco
2:52
Hmm, yeah I don't think we're getting an Adames-esque move again. They had such a glaring need at shortstop, the likes of which they don't really have anymore. Maybe the Nats would move Josh Bell early? The Brewers could use some first base help if they're willing to take on the money
Trevor Story
2:53
I just signed a big contract yet I switched agents a few days ago. Aren't agents supposed to mostly negotiate contracts or do they do other stuff as well? I'm trying to understand his move
Anthony Franco
2:53
Yeah that was a weird one. I'm sure agents have a role in off-the-field stuff (endorsement deals, etc.) as well, but I'm not sure what the impetus was for Story there
2:54
Obviously, I can't speak to what kind of personal relationship he had with his old reps. But from the outside, getting six for $140MM with an opt-out after the fourth year was a pretty good deal. Didn't strike me as anything that would cause him to change agencies out of displeasure with his contract
Matty A
2:55
What kind of numbers do you expect from Taylor Ward over the course of the season?
Anthony Franco
2:56
Ward's a tough one. I didn't really buy him coming into the year, and I don't want to go nuts over two weeks. But man, he's been awesome so far
2:57
Steamer projection system has him at .245/.345/.425 from here on out. I'll kind of cowardly lean on that right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if he outplays it
GBS42
2:57
It's pretty amazing how the standings after three weeks already look pretty similar to most end-of-season predictions, aside from maybe Atlanta and Houston moving up.  (I'd say the same about the White Sox, but injuries...)  What team(s) do you see changing their current position the most going forward?
Anthony Franco
2:58
The three you named
GBS42
2:58
Acuna stole three bases during his (shortened) rehab assignment and two in his first game back in the majors yesterday.  I know "the plan" is to take things slowly, but I expect the reigns to be taken off quickly.  He's so impressive.  Think he has a 30/30 season in him this year?
Anthony Franco
2:59
I'd take the under on the steals, since I do think they'll want him to take it a little easy early on. 30 homers? I'd probably go over, even with a month of the season gone. He's so good
JL
2:59
What is Anthony Santa dad’s trade value?  Any particular teams that could be interested?
Anthony Franco
3:00
He's been up-and-down throughout his career. He's never drawn walks anywhere near as often as he is this year, seems like he's really just been committed to more patience
Have to see if he keeps with that approach, but if he's still doing this in a month and a half, he should have a lot of value
3:01
Marlins, Guardians (although they let him go in the Rule 5 draft a few years ago, so maybe they wouldn't circle back), Padres, maybe the Jays look like teams that could buy an outfielder
3:03
Alright it's 3:00 CST so I'm taking the feed over from Steve. I'll hang around and hit a few more questions barring any breaking news, but give me like two minutes for the changeover
Carlos Correa
3:06
Chances he re-ups with MIN on a long term deal? If so, would the twins move Martin or Lewis for pitching?
Anthony Franco
3:07
I still thinks it's very unlikely. I know they've expressed mutual interest, but it'd take so much more in terms of total guarantee than the Twins have ever doled out. Never say never, and I wouldn't have expected Minnesota to give him a $35.1MM AAV either, but I'd still ballpark a long-term deal at like 15%
Timbo
3:08
Miguel Sano out of the Twins lineup for 3rd straight day. Is he done in Minnesota?
Anthony Franco
3:08
He's apparently dealing with some sort of knee issue
3:09
He quietly had a pretty good second half offensively, we know he has game-changing power. If he hits .096 over his next 75 at-bats, he's probably gone, but I don't expect them to pull the plug just yet
Dallas
3:09
I'm still trying to think this idea out so forgive me

Do they have a stat that captures a catchers caught stealing rate but for realistic throws? If catcher X throws out 30% of attempted base runners, how many of those did catcher X have an honest chance of throwing out? Not every play is bam-bam, how many stolen bases come off a pitch in the dirt where the catcher had no chance? Or if the pitcher has no pick off move? I was watching a Mets Cardinals game, where the Mets knew St Louis was going to steal second but the pitch was in the dirt. McCann scooped it and threw wildly to second. He had absolutely no chance but that counts as a stolen base against him. should that count the same as a pitch out, or if Bassitt had thrown over once? I want to see something like a RCS(Realistic Percentage of runners caught stealing) stat

Catcher X has a 25% CS but his RCS is a ridiculous 42%! His staff needs to throw over more, he has no chance!
Anthony Franco
3:11
You're pointing out a real flaw with CS% as a metric, but I don't know what the alternative is. I see two ways you could go about creating a new metric
3:12
One would be qualitative, where you basically watch every SB attempt and have a binary Y/N on should the catcher have thrown him out. That's going to be really subjective. How do you define a "realistic" caught steal? One where the catcher had a > 50% chance to make the play? 25%?
3:13
The other would be to do some sort of "expected caught stealing" model, where you combine the runner's lead/jump, the pitcher's time to get the ball to home plate, pitch type/location, etc. That requires a lot of research to determine how to properly weigh each of those things though
3:14
I could see a team trying to create something like this to better tease out which catchers are actually the best, and it'd be an upgrade over raw caught stealing rate. But I'm also not sure if it'd tell us too much more than just looking at the Statcast values of each catcher's average pop time
The 7 Line
3:14
Your Thoughts on the Mets hot start and their “staying power”?
Bones
3:15
Are the Mets pitchers (Megill Bassit Carrasco) really this good?
Anthony Franco
3:16
Leaguewide offense should go up in the coming months, so I don't those guys are going to stay this good. But I buy all three as above-average starters, health permitting (which is an important caveat in Carrasco's case)
3:18
A lot for the Mets revolves around the rotation health. The group skews older, deGrom/Carrasco obviously have recent concerns. If those guys can mostly stay healthy, though, the Mets should be right there with the best teams in the NL
Royals
3:18
I just read an article form you from a couple weeks ago that mentioned that the Royals calling up of Witt shows that they're not manipulating the service time of pratto and Melendez and instead are holding them back because they aren't ready. But don't you think that with the potential of a top 2 ROY finish changes the complexion of Witt's case. I feel like the Royals are still manipulating Pratto and Melendez's clocks
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