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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat With Anthony Franco
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Anthony Franco
12:29
But that's all closer to July
thebeatlesshow
12:29
Jared Walsh...flash in the pan?  Taylor Ward...how far back to earth does he fall?
Anthony Franco
12:30
I think Walsh will be fine. Another one of those guys whose results on balls in play are bad, which is partially true for everyone because they deadened the ball but should be less of an issue as it gets warmer
12:31
On Ward, I still think he's like a .260/.360/.450 guy. Good not great hitter, solid regular but I don't buy this kind of power long-term
mmddyyyy
12:32
Do you get more questions about under-performing players or over-performing players?
Anthony Franco
12:32
Under, people are always mad haha
robert
12:32
can you tell me the best sights to check up on my player's WRC every day?  I know your a big fan of WRC  can you tell me is 100 considered league average WRC? thanks
Anthony Franco
12:33
FanGraphs' leaderboard page has a wRC+ tab you can sort
12:34
100 is league average, yeah. Particularly this early in the season, any results-based numbers are still going to have some flaws and crazy outliers. But I think it's a useful starting point for "which players are performing well" and it's a good reminder of how bad the league offense is right now
Hunter Dozier is hitting .243/.273/.446. That feels terrible
12:35
But a 109 wRC+ puts into perspective both that Kansas City's home park is tough for hitters and most players are hitting brutally right now
mmddyyyy
12:36
Is the skill gap between A and AA the same as the gap between AA and AAA?
Anthony Franco
12:36
I think the gap between High-A and Double-A is more significant than the gap between Double-A and Triple-A
Don
12:36
We hear a lot about minor league players breaking through like Exequiel Tovar, and Corbin Carroll, and future stars tanking like Oneil Cruz, and Nick Gonzales.  In your experience, how do you tell what is real and what is fool's gold?
sgrossman
12:36
There seems to be a large disconnect between highly-touted prospects and success in MLB. Do you have any insights on why?
Anthony Franco
12:37
These are kind of similar so I'll address them together
12:38
To Don's question, I just think you want to evaluate each guy individually. Look beyond their ordinal ranking on a prospect list to focus on what their actual scouting report is, then weigh that against how they're performing in the minor leagues
A big thing for me is just keeping in mind that strikeouts for hitters go up the higher the levels they climb
12:39
Even someone like Miguel Sanó was "only" striking out like 26-28% of the time for most of his minor league tenure. That's up to like 35% in MLB where the pitching's better
12:40
So if you're already striking out a third of the time in A-ball, you're playing with fire no matter how good the physical tools are
12:41
I don't think there's a hard and fast rule to game prospect evaluations or anything. People at BA and FanGraphs are professionals who are constantly self-evaluating, so they're aware of this stuff. But I probably skew more heavily towards college and minor league performers (particularly from a contact perspective) than most
12:42
As for Grossman's question, I'd kind of push back against the premise. I don't have a link handy, but I believe there have been a few studies showing that draft and prospect list placement is still pretty predictive of overall value
12:43
They're not going to be perfect. The majors are hard, guys are constantly changing, and it's tough to tell from the outside which guys are going to be capable of adapting as they experience failure for the first time. But for the most part, top prospects do still tend to be better than their lower-ranked counterparts
Chad Kuhl
12:43
If he keeps this up, what type of prospect could he bring back in a trade?
Anthony Franco
12:44
Honestly, I'm not sure it'd be a good enough one for the Rockies to move him
12:45
He's a great fit for the ballpark, but he's never going to have the kind of strikeout rate that teams are going to see him as a top-end guy
They kept Jon Gray last year. I actually think they're more likely to sign Kuhl to a modest two or three year extension than flip him
Matt
12:45
Dylan Bundy’s last two starts have been trash. Is this the beginning of the end?
SteveM
12:45
Sano is out in Minnesota. Miranda is in, even though 1B is not his natural position. It seems now Sano's strikeouts can become translated at the very least into balls in play. Also, is Dylan Bundy fixable or will he always be an Oriole castoff?
Anthony Franco
12:46
I just think he's a boring #4/5 starter. He misses a decent number of bats, throws strikes but gives up a ton of homers
12:47
For a $5MM signee, it's fine. But yeah, I've long since given up hope that "top prospect" Bundy will ever materialize
12:48
He used to throw hard. He's been hurt a bunch, and now he throws 89-91. I don't think the old form's ever coming back
Dan O of Coquitlam
12:48
injury has given Royals an opportunity to see MJ Melendez in action perhaps earlier than they planned; now with Santana out, do you see Pratto's arrival in the very near future, and is he a possible candidate to stay, unlike MJ?
Anthony Franco
12:49
I think this goes back to the minor league strikeout thing I was referring to earlier
He's punching out 34.3% of the time against Triple-A pitching right now. That's basically not workable in the majors unless you have Stanton or Gallo type power. Pratto doesn't, and that number's more likely to go up than down in the majors
12:50
I was critical of the Royals decision to option Pratto back in the first place, but what he's done so far this year hasn't earned anymore faith than they had in him a month ago
JL
12:50
Do you think the Os will look to trade Austin Hayes considering many of their prospects play the OF?
Anthony Franco
12:52
I think they'd be open to offers but won't force a deal. He's controllable through 2025 and is probably their best or second-best player. At some point, you do need to keep MLB talent around. Can't rebuild forever
Brewers
12:52
Could you see a Keaton Hiura for Jo Adell trade?
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