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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 4/21/23
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Steve Adams
12:40
Greetings everyone! Anthony has a conflict today so I'll be stepping back in for him this week! It's been awhile since I've hosted one of our subscriber chats, so I'm looking forward to this! Talk to everyone in a couple of hours!
2:50
Hey everyone! Lots of questions already in here, and since there's a small chance I'll have to duck out a few minutes early I'll get this underway a few minutes early as well!
For Love of the Game
2:50
Can my Tigers finish third in the AL Central given the early implosions by the ChiSox and Royals?  Does it indicate anything positive or just stinking less than those two teams?
Steve Adams
2:53
I still have the Tigers finishing fourth. The White Sox' start has been ugly, but it's a more talented group than the Tigers and the Sox have had some key injuries early.

I still believe in Torkelson, Greene, Skubal and Mize. Carpenter is interesting, though I don't buy this level of power output. E-Rod looked amazing yesterday, so maybe there's hope yet to get something out of that deal or even that he pitches well enough to opt out.
utie
2:53
Is Vladdy actually better with less power and higher average?
Steve Adams
2:54
I don't really think Vlad's currently low power output is real. He's making tons of hard contact, barreling the ball at the second highest rate of his career and hitting more flyballs than ever before. He just weirdly has only a 12% homer-to-flyball rate
2:55
That stat can be kind of fluky in one direction or the other, but especially in small samples, and in his career 20% of his flyballs have gone for homers. I think he'll get back to that point sooner than later and we'll see a  quick uptick in power.
Any version of Vlad is amazing.
SFGfan
2:55
Do you see Kapler being fired before the end of the season if the Giants continue to struggle with a losing record?
Steve Adams
2:56
Popular question among Giants fans, but ownership is committed to Zaidi and I think Zaidi is committed to Kapler. I think he'll stay, just as Farhan will. If we get another season or two of continued mediocrity at this pace, well, that's another story.
There's always an in-season tipping point though, so in the tiny chance the Giants lose like 20 of 24 games or something catastrophic, I guess I can see them making a change. But generally, I think he'll stay.
tigersFan
2:56
Is Kerry carpenter a good enough hitter to be a regular player?
Steve Adams
2:59
Yeah I just touched on him a bit in that other Tigers question, but I think he's a viable platoon outfielder. The Tigers don't seem keen on giving him any real left-on-left playing time, and he hasn't hit well or looked good in the very minimal opportunities he's had.

I don't think he has this much power -- the current 27% HR/FB won't keep up -- so that probably brings down his average and certainly his slugging, but I can buy him as like a 115-120ish wRC+ corner outfielder against RHP.
Kingdome
2:59
I'm starting to get very worried about my Mariners. They seem to be missing at least one bat and their vaunted relief corp is far from what it was last year. Convince me that the Mariners have what it takes to make the playoffs again this year. Please.
Steve Adams
3:01
They were like eight games below .500 after Memorial Day weekend last year, too! I don't think they're this bad; they haven't really had Robbie Ray, and downgrading from him to Flexen is significant. Losing Andres Munoz  for any stretch hurts; I think he's the best reliever in the American League and arguably the best in baseball with Diaz out for the year.

I think the bullpen will be better, largely because Matt Brash will be better. I figured if he struggled it'd be due to his command, and while that's been the case to some extent, his current 11-something% walk rate is actually a little better than I envisioned, ha. He's getting BABIP'ed to death though, at 5.50.

I think Brash is a bullpen monster who'll form a dominant trio to Sewald and a healthy Munoz
3:02
That said, they probably need some help still. Topa, Murfee and Castillo are walking everyone and don't have the same margin for error that someone like Brash, who can probably legitimately K 40-45% of his opponents, does.
RAGBRAI
3:02
How much playing time does Suwinski get going forward? Seems like he lost his starters role but then starts hitting.
Steve Adams
3:05
He's utterly destroying the ball and will or should get regular at-bats against righties. If you read my NL Breakout Picks piece for subscribers last month, he was my guy in Pittsburgh. The quality of contact is flat-out elite, and there's no way they can sit him against any right-handers. If anything, he's hitting righties so well that they should at least look at giving him some love against lefties to see if he can handle his own.
From that NL Breakout Picks piece:

As a prospect, one of the biggest knocks on Suwinski was lack of defensive value. He never even ranked among the Padres’ top prospects or the Pirates’ top prospects at MLB.com, and Baseball America listed him 24th among Pittsburgh farmhands in 2022. FanGraphs put a 20 grade on his defense.
That simply wasn’t the case in last year’s MLB debut, however. Each of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average gave him average or better results. The Pirates were so encouraged by his defensive gains that they’ve been playing him in center field this spring.
Meanwhile, Suwinski’s strong minor league exit velocities begin to surface in the big leagues late in the year. He posted an 88.3 mph average exit velo overall but was up to 91.4 mph with a 49.3% hard-hit rate. Suwinski walks a lot but is selective to the point of bordering on passive. His low contact rate on pitches off the plate will keep his strikeout rate high unless he can hone that aspect of his game, but if Suwinski starts pulling the trigger on more pitches in the zone, his rate stats could jump across the board – which isn’t a bad thing for a guy who already slugged 19 homers in just 372 plate appearances.
Denny
3:05
Do the Rockies givd Tovar time in the bigs to work things out?  I know it's early, but...
Steve Adams
3:08
I think he'll get awhile longer, but they can't just keep running him out there for a full season of this. He's striking out way too much for someone with fringe-y power whose calling card at the plate is supposed to be hit tool. He just isn't hitting anything hard, at all.

I don't think you send a kid down after 60-70 PAs when you're this high on him, but this also isn't the type of situation where I say "oh it's only 65 PAs and he's had some bad luck in these areas."

He's just been bad, and if it continues into mid-to-late May, yeah he'll probably get optioned out and try for an AAA reset.
Drew W
3:08
Hi Steve, There seems to be a lot of hand-wringing over how bad the A's are, but it is still early days in the rebuild, and they have a consistent record of good to bad to good in the past twenty years.  At what point do we call a rebuild a failure?
Steve Adams
3:11
The returns they've gotten on this latest fire sale have been widely panned, and that's generally been for good reason. It's still early in the rebuild, yeah, but the farm is ranked horribly and they traded an entire contending core for a bunch of near-MLB prospects who've made virtually no impact so far. After trading Olson, Chapman, Bassitt, Manaea, Montas, Trivino and Murphy they should either be better than they are at the MLB level or have one of the game's better farm systems. Instead, their system is still ranked terribly. They've already jettisoned multiple players they got in the Olson and Chapman trades (Pache, Logue).

It's not good.
Ricky Hen
3:11
Do the A's follow through and build something on their new parcel of Las Vegas land?
Steve Adams
3:12
To borrow from Major League... John Fisher has seemed hell-bent on Rachel Phelps-ing the A's out of Oakland and that looks to be where this is headed. I expect it to get done.
Donny Baseball
3:12
Does a pitcher need to release the ball before the clock hits zero or just start his motion to avoid a clock violation?  Thank you
Steve Adams
3:12
Start his motion
LaserShow45
3:12
Hey Steve! The Red Sox continue to have serious issues at first base. Casas is young, I’m sure he’ll get time to show he’s capable…but what are Boston’s options if he doesn’t? I love his ability to take walks, but being a young Chris Davis is not a good thing. And he hasn’t shown Chris Davis’ power
Steve Adams
3:16
Casas has looked rough. Too many strikeouts, below-average contact on pitches in the zone and off the plate, and too many chases off the plate. He's crushed a few balls, but he's still making hard contact at a below-average rate. I don't think it's total panic time yet, he's young and still drawing tons of walks, but you'd hope for some positives in the near future.

If they want to make a change relatively early in the season, I think it'll just be internal. Get Turner some work there, give Refsnyder some turns. Maybe if Dalbec's hitting in Worcester, give him another look.
tFan1
3:17
How much leash do the tigers give Schoop before they cut him?  He's not hitting well and Andre lipcius  and Justyn-Henry Malloy are both hitting well at Toledo.
Steve Adams
3:18
I don't think it'll be all that long. He's a free agent at the end of the year, and Scott Harris isn't the one who signed him to that extension. If he's not hitting by the end of May, I don't think he gets much longer than that (if he even gets that)
Cards Fan
3:18
Later in the season trade proposal--Chris Sale to STL for Tyler O'Neill and Matthew Liberatore.  What do you think?
Steve Adams
3:20
With what's left on Sale's contract, that feels like a huge overpay. Sale has had one great start this year, but he's owed $27.5MM this season and next. That nukes pretty much any positive trade value he has. He also has full trade veto rights as a 10-and-5 player, by the way.
D-Backs
3:20
Do they flip Gurriel at the deadline and sweeten the return for Varsho even more?
Steve Adams
3:21
I don't think Gurriel has much value. He's pretty much a LF/1B with sub-par defense and, at best, a slightly above-average bat. He's been pretty bad through 74 plate appearances with the D-backs, too.
3:22
They might be able to end up flipping him for something if he starts hitting between now and then, but I don't think it'll be anything that brings back much meaning.
Red Sox Rotation
3:22
Who are the odd men out? Houck is the easy answer but was been pitching great. Pivetta thrived in long relief at the end of 2021. Paxton came out of the pen in a rehab and got lit up.
Steve Adams
3:25
I never bought Paxton as a real option for that rotation after all the injuries and missed time in recent years. They won't cut bait on Kluber this early, but he's probably not one of their five best starters right now. They can probably make it all work since there's a case to manage the innings of Houck, Whitlock, Bello and Sale coming off such injury-shortened years, but if Kluber's throwing 88mph and still walking like 10% of his opponents by early summer it becomes hard to justify keeping him around.
DON SELLS CARSWELL
3:26
Not to jump the gun, but this Braves team feels like the most complete team we have had since 95-96. Not to mention that  we have had 5 our key players out for half of the time. What do you think is our greatest need on this team.
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