You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Trade Rumors Front Office Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 5/26/23
powered byJotCast
Steve Adams
8:59
Greetings everyone! Anthony is on vacation this week so I'm stepping in to host the weekly subscriber chat. We'll get started in a few hours, but as always, feel free to submit questions in advance. Looking forward to it!
11:59
Hey everyone! Let's get this underway. Thanks for all the early questions. Will try to get through as many of those and as many live ones as possible over the next hour or so
john
11:59
Steve, are you surprised by the excellent showing of the Baltimore Orioles?  The GM did very little in the off-season and, for most experts, it was believed they might regress from their 2022 showing.
Steve Adams
12:02
I'm not surprised that the offense is strong, but I'm surprised they've held up to this extent given their starting pitching. I found their offseason additions extremely underwhelming, and the in-house options haven't been great. Tyler Wells is one of the biggest regression candidates in any rotation right now for me -- .167 BABIP, 88% strand rate, tons of home runs (2.05 per nine) and tons of hard contact -- but still sitting mid-3.00s with the ERA.

I'm not sure there's anyone in their current rotation I buy as more than a fourth/fifth starter long-term, and yet they're still 16 games over .500. It's a testament to the lineup and the bullpen, but I think there's some regression in the 'pen too. (Yennier Cano looks awesome, but I don't see how anyone can go from like 30-grade command to 80-grade command over the course of one offseason)
12:04
I was really into Jorge Mateo's breakout for awhile, but the strikeouts have started creeping back up and the OBP is free-falling, so the jury's out on that one for me.

The O's are a good offensive club. Adley Rutschman is the best catcher in baseball, I still fully believe in Gunnar Henderson despite the slow start. But there's still work to do on the pitching side for me.
Bob Loblaw
12:04
Who doe the Cardinals have to give up to get Giolito? What about Cease?
Steve Adams
12:09
I'm not going to put out specific names because it's so difficult to know which teams like specific prospects. You can go off rankings, but there's a huge variance from team-to-team. I had someone with one team a couple years ago tell me they had  MacKenzie Gore like 8th among Padres prospects when he was still universally sitting in the top 25 of MLB, for one example.

Anyway, I think history will tell us that a high-end rental at a reasonable salary typically requires one quality prospect (someone who's around a 45-50 FV), and perhaps another throw-in option or two. Since the White Sox are still going to be trying to win in the short term even if they sell some veterans, I imagine they'd err toward MLB-ready headliners. That could mean Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, Michael McGreevy -- someone in that bucket.

Cease's price tag would be through the roof, rocky start or not. It's two seasons of control beyond the current campaign for a Cy Young-caliber arm.
12:10
The White Sox would be justified to ask for any of Walker, Winn, Hence, etc -- likely multiple names from that bucket and several others from the middle tiers of the system.
Duffy Scliff
12:10
Chang and Arroyo are getting ready to return for the Red Sox. Is it a forgone conclusion that they’ll option Valdéz back to make room for them? Or could one of them lose their place to Valdéz?
Steve Adams
12:12
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion -- at least, it shouldn't be. Valdez has looked great. I understand the Sox may prefer to keep their depth, but he's outplayed both players handily. I was surprised they brought Chang back on a big league deal in the first place. I'd keep Valdez  over either, myself, but the Red Sox could still option him to preserve maximum depth (which I think would be a mistake).
Big Bob
12:12
Maybe the Dodgers need pitching help more than giving up the farm for Tim Anderson? Lux should be back next year and is Anderson that much better? Is Trace Thompson done?
Steve Adams
12:15
I don't think it's a binary one or the other situation. They need both. The shortstop upgrade doesn't have to be Tim Anderson. Cardinals might look at Paul DeJong's hot start as an opportunity to not only shed some money but also get a notable piece back, for instance, and they have plenty of in-house options to replace him.

Amed Rosario's not hitting at all, but he has two months to get back on track before deadline season is in full swing and has a decent track record. There'll be other shortstop options than Anderson, though I certainly do like that fit on paper and think you can make it work in '24 with both him and Lux on the roster.

They could very well be in the market for upgrades in both areas and will cast a wide net if so
Tony
12:16
Happy Memorial Day. Thanks to all of our veterans who sacrificed for the country.  My question is about the Cardinals. The pitching has somewhat started to return to normal and if you squint you could see a league upper half rotation. Even so, is this team worth cashing in chips for an elite level starter (assuming one is available)? I get the 2006 Cardinals team argument (and last year's Phillies)...just get in. However the Cards had a HoFer calling the shots in 2006 and Marmol doesn't give me the warm feels he could pull the strings to replicate that run. I know the Cards always try to win now while balancing future  rosters but is it reasonable to just celebrate another winning season and re-tooling in the winter?
Steve Adams
12:20
Happy Memorial Day to you as well!

I think most teams are going to look at any chance to get in and consider it worthwhile, largely for reasons you implied. (There are other "just get in" examples too. Royals!)

I think if they're going to deplete the farm to add a top-end arm like Cease (just using him as an example since he was previously asked about), it's less a case of going all in for this year than it is for recognizing a need for help in subsequent seasons. They've got 1.5 years of Goldy+Arenado left. Contreras is in his physical prime for the next couple years still. Edman is a free agent after 2025. There's a good group of win-now talent in place right now that'll turn over in the next couple years, so to me yes there's sense in adding a multi-year rotation option like that if the opportunity presents itself, even if it's painful on the farm system end of things.
Plus the Cardinals seem to churn out good big leaguers from the middle tiers of their farm as much as any team. Damn near every year there's a guy who comes up who was a "future utility player or fourth outfielder" and breezes past that ceiling. They have a good player development track record.
Angel Hernandez
12:21
We see a number of veterans struggling early on this year.  The talk has been about the pitch clock affecting pitchers, but do you think it is affecting some of these veteran hitters?
Steve Adams
12:24
I'm sure it's impacting hitters and pitchers both, albeit to varying extents.

But we also see lots of veterans struggle every year. I think there's a lot of confirmation bias going on with the pitch clock, where people see a change that they don't love and their immediate reaction is to blame it for things that tend to happen anyway. I see lots of talk about how many "more" Tommy Johns there are this year, but there were more through late May in 2021 than there have been in 2023.

There could be some correlation, but the reality is that we won't know until there's more data to support it. And while there are plenty of veterans off to slow starts, we've also seen some resurgences. Look at Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. Matt Chapman, Ronald Acuna, Jorge Soler.
Guest
12:25
There are 2 top picks for the upcoming draft. Which one does Pittsburgh take and do the Nats take whichever remains?
Steve Adams
12:27
Full transparency: I am in no way a draft expert. I'm not a scout, I'm not paid to cover it particularly closely, and it's not part of my job to try to sniff out things like this.

That said, the Pirates under Ben Cherington have gravitated heavily toward position players with their top pick, so I'd lean Dylan Crews for that reason. A lot of teams just don't want to take a pitcher with their top selection(s), even a polished college guy like Paul Skenes, because developing pitchers is so difficult and because injury risk is so much more prevalent.
Astros fan
12:28
Glasnost looks like someone TB would trade away with a big payday due next year. Do you agree? What would he cost the Astros?
Steve Adams
12:30
I don't agree. They signed him to that extension because they envisioned him, McClanahan and Baz dominating atop their rotation (alongside Springs, Rasmussen, etc.)

It's more than they've ever paid a player for one season but it's not a backbreaking amount given the rest of their minimal commitments. And it's worth noting that they offered Freddie Freeman similar money over a long-term deal and signed Wander Franco to a huge extension that'll come with some weighty salaries down the line.

Glasnow knows he made a notable compromise to sign that contract, and he spoke publicly about how it's because the Rays are exactly where he wants to be. I think trading him in the face of such comments would be seen as a bad-faith move that could impact future negotiations with other players.
12:31
If it's July 2024, and Glasnow's a pending free agent and the Rays aren't contending, then it's another story. But to trade him before he ever gets to that larger salary would be sending a really poor message.
Bader
12:31
If I can play 100-110 games this year and keep up my current pace can I get 100m in the weak position player FA class?
Steve Adams
12:34
I don't think he even needs to keep up his current pace to do it. We were talking about him in the $80-85MM range before the season even started. If he sustains this power output I think he can clear $100MM with ease (especially if he can start to walk a bit more)

Hader and maybe Bellinger are going to be the only prime-aged everyday CFs on the market, so demand will be huge. Kiermaier is interesting but the injury history is enormous and he's 33 already.

It'll depend on health the rest of the way, and there's still time for a lengthy slump to tamp down his earning power, but yeah I think $100MM+ could be in play with a good season and further avoidance of the IL.
Chuckie
12:34
What can or should the Rays do for their bullpen besides WAIT for the injured to return?
Steve Adams
12:37
There's not a ton TO do right now, since the trade market isn't active and free agency doesn't have many options to peruse. Some recent DFAs/releases include Fernando Abad, Silvino Bracho, Jacob Barnes, Wander Suero... lot of those guys have had some big league success. Abad was lights-out in AAA with the Rox this year.

The Rays could try to catch lightning in a bottle with someone like that, but it's hard  to put together a deal for an impactful reliever in late May.
Hack
12:37
Should the Astros add Hosmer at league minimum? Not particularly good, but almost league average. J Abreu isn't?
Steve Adams
12:38
I have more faith in Abreu turning it around than I do of Hosmer being a difference-maker there. Hoz wasn't really "almost" league average. He had a .280 OBP and .330 slugging with the Cubs. wRC+ has him 20% worse than average with the bat.

He was better than Abreu's been, but I don't think he's going to change their fortunes much. Plus Houston has Abreu through 2025, so they need to do everything they can to get him on track.
Playing time question
12:39
Who will get the most at bats in the rest of the season in rank order Avisail Garcia Austin Slater and Corey Dickerson?  Are rumors of a CJCron trade to Phillies off-base?
Steve Adams
12:42
Assuming health, I'll go Slater, Avi, Dickerson for playing time. Could easily be Garcia over Slater, since the Marlins need to try to get him going, but they're playing decently and if Garcia can't get going they're going to cut his role back this summer.

I've been asked about CJ Cron/Phillies multiple times. Is that stemming just from Jim Bowden listing them as a "team that could have interest"? That's way different than someone reporting actual talks/interest. It's just kind of an obvious connect-the-dots situation.

Cron's on the injured list right now and the Rockies don't even have a timetable for when he'll be back. In late July if he's healthy, sure it makes sense. But there's nothing happening there right now.
Dodger Dave
12:43
Prospect for LA to get Anderson, Hendrick and Cease
Steve Adams
12:46
Their entire farm system? Getting Cease, Hendriks and Anderson from the White Sox isn't realistic, but if you want to try to overwhelm them with a Soto-esque package I suppose you could say like Outman, Cartaya, Pages, Miller, Pepiot, Stone or something insane, it'd at least be fun to try, ha.

I just don't think that's how the Dodgers operate, and I really don't think the White Sox are going to move Cease anyway.
John B
12:46
Thanks for the chat.  I know he got a late start, but at what point does Casey Schmitt enter the ROY conversation?
Steve Adams
12:48
There's no reason he can't get into the mix if he plays well enough. Michael Harris II wasn't even called up until around this time last year and he still won it.

It's Corbin Carroll's to lose, for me, but there's a lot of season left. Injuries happen, etc.
SFGfan44
12:48
Steve, With the success of Patrick Bailey behind the plate do you see a scenario where Joey Bart could be possibly traded?
Steve Adams
12:49
Bailey is 4-for-17 with one walk in 19 PAs... I don't know how resounding we can call his "success" just yet, but I'm also not sure it matters. This front office regime isn't the one that drafted Bart, and he's had several years to establish himself without much success to show for it. Zaidi's group DID draft Bailey. If they move on from Bart, even if it means selling low, I won't be surprised at all.
guest
12:50
As we enter Memorial day weekend, surprising teams starting well ( Pittsburgh, baltimore, Texas etc.) wonder ‘will it last?’. Oakland is on track to finish 32-130. Do you see that lasting or will they ‘only’ lose 100-110?
Steve Adams
12:51
I said prior to the season that I just don't think any team can be SO bad that they set a new record for futility, but man alive are the A's testing me on that. It's astonishing how bad every pitcher they've traded for has performed.

I still tend to believe that as the season wears on, they'll call up some prospects who'll improve the roster and get them to something in the mid-40s, but I'm no longer all that confident in my prediction that they'll avoid a new all-time low.
JL
12:52
Instead of overpaying for a starting pitcher, could the Os pivot and double down on their bullpen at the deadline?  Who could they target?
MLP
12:52
Probably starting to get clearer who the buyers and sellers are likely to be come the deadline.  Subject to change, of course, who are the best closer/setup guys likely to hit the market?
Load More Messages
Connecting…