You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Trade Rumors Front Office Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat
Brad Johnson
12:31
Thomas also reads as an OBP-only play. Too much patience relative to his hit tool and power.
Feury
12:32
H2H points, keeper choice, can only keep 1 sadly, Corey Seager, Freddy Peralta or Yoan Moncada? Does Jonathan India change the answer at all?
Brad Johnson
12:33
Well, I'd take India over Moncada in a heartbeat, but I'm definitely narrowing it down to Seager or Peralta.
12:34
I think you have to decide which stats are more important to you. If it's any help, Peralta is going about 20 picks before Seager. And SS is crazy deep this year.
12:35
So I'd probably lean Peralta, especially if he would rate as your best SP.
GBS42
12:35
Brad, how much does your best guess at your opponents' keepers and money status affect your keeper decisions?  For example, if you're borderline on keeping a star like Tatis/T. Turner/Soto at what appears to be full price, and you know some other owners will have lots of money to spend at the auction, would that nudge you toward keeping that player since his price tag could get pushed even higher if you were to throw him back?  (Asking for a friend.  Ha!)
Brad Johnson
12:37
To be honest, I'm in too many leagues these days to play this deeply. I regret it too, I used to love micromanaging my opponents. Back in the early days, I'd even help bolster certain middle-standings opponents who could snipe a point or two from my top competitors.
Now I just play my roster. I will usually keep an elite player at a fair price if only because you can't be sure that price will be available for a similar player in the draft.
12:38
All else equal, my only concern is making sure I get some elite players. I know I can find mid-tier players for $1 at will (12-team mixed).
12:39
It's worth noting, I'm a big stars and scrubs proponent. My generic ottoneu strategy is to spend $375 of $400 on my first 20 players then $20 on my last 20 with $5 leftover for in-season moves.
Casey
12:40
5x5 OBP keeper league. We can keep 8 for 3 years and I have Austin Riley, Arozarena, Bellinger, and Correa locked in. Which 4 would you keep: Ozuna, Bassitt, Manoah, Kelenic, Baz, Jazz, and Votto.
Brad Johnson
12:40
That's a tricky list. Do you HAVE to keep them the 3 years?
12:41
If you do, I'd go youth with Kelenic, Baz, Manoah, and Jazz.
12:43
If you don't, I might take Bassitt over one of the younger pitchers. Especially if you're trying to win this season. I might also consider going with all four younglings then converting them to productive olds after the keeper deadline. Should be some nice hauls available for them from rebuilders.
This is the last question in the queue so shoot me some new material!
JBD
12:43
In a 14-team head to head 3-keeper league.  As I prepare for our still unscheduled draft I am seriously considering NO keepers and hoping the snake draft draw is good.  My top players from last year were Scherzer, Burnes, and Riley.  For 2022 Scherzer falls back to ADP 18 and Riley 44.  Burnes seems like a logical choice for a first round keeper, but I don't usually grab a pitcher with my first pick.  My #4 from last year is Machado and he's moved up to 24 ADP, so he could be a keeper for the second round if I hang on to Burnes.
Brad Johnson
12:46
I'm sure you know your business, but just make sure you'll be getting those draft slots at the beginning rather than the end of the draft. Most platforms wouldn't handle it as you've described by default.
Otherwise, this smells like a plausible option. Medium risk, medium reward.
12:47
Assuming everyone else keeps 2-3, you can expect what? 4 of the top 12 picks?
Then again, Burnes will probably be the best player in the pool so you might as well keep him
JBD
12:48
Yes, in our league if you don't have a keeper, you get a first round draft.
Brad Johnson
12:48
And if Burnes is the best in the pool, then Scherzer is probably second-best. And Machado would be Top 5 too.
12:49
So I see 2 options: Play it safe and just keep the bird(s) in hand or roll the dice and probably end up with a similar trio. Small risk of a slight decline in player value. Small chance for a slight gain.
12:51
Well, I'm out of questions to answer so I suppose we can wrap this up. Anyone with a buzzer beater?
12:52
Just reply yes then you can take your time phrasing it while I read Jeff Passan roasting the owners.
zeek
12:55
An upcoming ROTO 12 team has (S+H) as a category. Cant find a target category projection.. Can you help?
Brad Johnson
12:56
Here's how I'd approach that. First, you typically want to design a team that projects to finish third in every category. That's the Plan A roster build.
Obviously, not everybody can accomplish that because... math.
12:57
But let's assume you're targeting third place. Next, estimate the mean/median number of active relievers per team.
12:58
Generally, you'll want to try to "max out" based on what your league allows.
So if it's 2 SP, 2 RP, 5 P, then that's 7 RP.
12:59
If benches are fewer than 5, then maybe just 5 RP.
And if your league allows daily streaming, then factor that in too.
1:01
Next, estimate the category accrual. A closer can be penciled in for about 35 SV+H, that also includes injury risk. A good non-closer for about 30 (i.e. Devin Williams). A standard non-closer (i.e. Ryan Helsley) for about 20-25.
1:02
Saves are massively more reliable than holds and easier to accrue in quantity.
1:03
So for a guy like Williams, you're kind of anticipating 5-10 SV and 20-25 Hld. It's rare you'll project a reliever for more than 25 Hld regardless of role.
1:04
Lefty specialists can be an exception under certain conditions.
1:05
All of which is to say, I'd probably target 150 SV+H as a starting point (5 RP) and try to squeeze in more over the season.
1:06
Alright, that's a wrap. See y'all on the main site next Monday.
Connecting…