You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat with Steve Adams: 1/13/25
powered byJotCast
Steve Adams
1:26
Greetings all! Happy to add another subscriber chat to the week. We'll get going at 2:30pm CT, but feel free to shoot some questions my way ahead of time if you're so inclined.
2:30
Hello all!
Let's get underway
Bill
2:30
Should we call a code blue for Atlanta’s front office?
Steve Adams
2:31
Heh, it sounds like they tried to sign Jeff Hoffman as their Reynaldo Lopez 2.0, but the physical tanked it.

I never expected the Braves to go big in free agency -- they never do; Ozuna ($65MM) is their largest deal under Anthopoulos, and next up is Will Smith at 40MM -- but thought they'd have been more involved on the trade market.
I'm endlessly amused (sorry White Sox fans) by the possibility of them trading for Dylan Cease and competing with a rotation fronted by Cease, Sale and Lopez
2:32
So, that's my hope for them. Haha
(And with Aaron Bummer setting up!)
Detroit’s lineup
2:32
Do we Bregman or Santander? I feel like we are just being thrown out there as a possibility to drive up the price for other teams.
Steve Adams
2:34
I have a hard time seeing Bregman there just because the front office has been generally risk-averse under Scott Harris and there are some pretty glaring red flags.

Santander, if he's truly open to shorter-term deals, begins to make a ton of sense and I can buy that one much more strongly. If he'll do three years with an opt-out after year two or something (Mitch Haniger-esque, but at higher dollars) -- that should be really appealing to Detroit.

That's true of other suitors as well, of course. But I never bought the idea of the Tigers being a serious bidder if he's looking for $90-100MM+ over five years. On a short-term arrangement, I can absolutely see the Tigers involved.
Two pitchers
2:34
What's your take on these pitchers with huge question marks.

1) Drew Rasmussen: a stud—when healthy. What are the odds that this is his year?

2) Casey Mize: former top prospect, but is he doomed to be a back-of-the-rotation guy?
Steve Adams
2:38
If I could successfully forecast pitcher health, I would be making tens of millions of dollars to do so for the Mets or Dodgers, haha. There's no way of knowing how Rasmussen will hold up. He's immensely talented and a legitimate No. 2 type of starter when healthy, though.

Mize has never missed enough bats to profile at the top of a rotation. He looks very much like a fourth starter to me when healthy. The slider, in particular, has pretty weak whiff rates. He misses more bats with the splitter, but it's rarely as simple as just saying "throw this pitch more."

I wonder if another team would/could tweak the shape of the slider to try to get more out of it. I know there have been clubs looking at trading for him this winter. But he's still in Detroit, of course, and as things stand he seems like the favorite to be their fourth starter.
One silver lining: he did throw harder last year than ever before. Didn't lead to  a big uptick in whiffs though
The Wiilies of SF
2:39
Wilyer Abreu (Red Sox) to Giants for Luis Matos and Mason Black. Who says no? And if so, why?
Steve Adams
2:41
I don't make that deal if I'm the Red Sox. Matos' stock is down. He didn't hit well in AAA last year, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rates in the upper minors have never been great, even when he was putting up better surface-level numbers in 2023. Black is 25, was hit hard in the majors, and even though he posted an average K% in Triple-A he did so with well below-average swinging-strike numbers.

Abreu's already a really nice big league player, and I don't think there's enough in a Matos/Black package to justify giving up five years of control over him.
Arizona
2:42
Given the "surplus" of pitching Arizona currently has, would you start the season with Montgomery or Ryne Nelson in the bullpen as the long man assuming no injuries or trades?
Steve Adams
2:44
I'll just be surprised if they don't trade Monty, but if they don't make that move and everyone's healthy, probably Nelson to the 'pen (assuming he's recovered from TOS surgery) and a rotation of Burnes, Gallen, Kelly, E-Rod, Montgomery ... that leaves Brandon Pfaadt out of luck, but he really struggled in August/September last year anyhow and would be first up in the event of an injury.
Reporting Changes
2:44
After the Correa saga, is reporting on deals that fell through due to injury (Hoffman and Braves/Orioles) just going to be come commonplace in the way Ohtani's deferred money means every deal has to be reported with Net Present Value when before 2023 no reporter would have considered putting that in their article?
Steve Adams
2:45
We were listing the net present value on Scherzer's deferred contract back in 2015.

I don't think it's necessarily going to be commonplace for failed physicals to come out now, but Hoffman and Correa are hardly the first ones. The Orioles have a long history of flagging physicals. The Dodgers' deal with James Paxton was amended after the physical. Ditto Gary Sanchez and the Brewers, I believe. It happens. Maybe not quite so prominently as in the case of Correa, but it still happens.
Trust me on this one
2:46
How often do prospects get signed before their major league debut, and how often does it work out?
Steve Adams
2:47
You can use our Contract Tracker to pull this info up yourself!
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/contracttracker?name=&team=0&position=0...

The only players to sign extensions before making their big league debut are Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Scott Kingery, Evan White, Jon Singleton, Colt Keith and Jackson Chourio.

Plenty of teams have tried with other prospects (Mariners/Kelenic come to mind as a recent example), but it's a tough thing for the parties to agree on.
2:48
As that list shows, there's more misses than hits. It still won't stop teams from trying, though. The potential benefit is huge. Chourio looks like a superstar and is under control for like a decade.

Robert's deal hasn't panned out as hoped because of injury, but it's still been a good deal and he could still be traded for value this spring/this season if he rebounds and shows any health at all.
Ballyhooed Plausibilities
2:49
Is it possible for a veteran player to sign a contract that allows them to shuttle up and down from the minors? I imagine not, since I don't remember any examples
Steve Adams
2:50
If that player has under 5 years of service time and has minor league options remaining, sure. But you seem like you're suggesting a more veteran player with more service.

In those cases, it's more common for someone to go the route the Yankees did with Ryan Weber a few years ago... minor league deal, frequently DFA'ed/passed through waivers but immediately re-sign on new minor league deal or just accept an outright assignment each time.

If you're a productive veteran with any earning power, there's no reason to include a clause allowing the team to send you to the minors.
Clark and Addison
2:51
Could you see the Cubs going all-in to sign Bregman on a short-term deal similar to Bellinger?
Steve Adams
2:53
Wouldn't "going all-in" just mean signing Bregman to a normal, long-term free agent deal? And then trading Matt Shaw and Javier Assad for someone really good (e.g. one of the Mariners' young starters)
At any rate, there's yet to be any indication Bregman will go short-term.
Gavin
2:53
should the Padres package Cease and Suarez together to maximize return?
Steve Adams
2:54
I don't think there's an accurate response to a blanket scenario like this. Not every team that's interested in Cease would have strong interest in Suarez, and vice versa. If there's a team that does want both, sure, that could be a scenario to explore, but expressly marketing them as a package deal is a mistake and isn't how Preller would operate.
Ben
2:54
If the Giants signed Santander or Alonso, what draft picks would they sacrifice, since they already lost picks for Adames.  How deep is the 2025 class, and would it even really matter?
Steve Adams
2:57
The pick (or picks, in this case) just move down the list. It costs their second- and fifth-highest picks to sign a qualified free agent since the Giants paid the luxury tax last year. So they've already punted their second- and fifth-rounders. Signing Santander or Alonso would require forfeiting their third- and sixth-rounders.

I don't think it's a killer to do that in a one-off scenario, but they've also given up picks to sign Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. I doubt they want to repeat the process too many more times.
baseball gods laugh and laugh
2:57
Who is still in the running for Sasaki?
Steve Adams
2:58
Dodgers, Padres, Jays at the very least. I haven't seen anything to suggest the Mariners, Cubs, Rangers are out.

We know the Giants, Yankees and Mets have all been told they're out. (Well, we know the Giants have, since their GM said so on record. I haven't personally confirmed the New York teams or anything, but with like a dozen credible reporters each saying as much, it's not like that needs confirmation)
Jay
2:58
Is there any trade market for Taijuan Walker or is that contract just immovable?
Steve Adams
2:59
There could be swaps for other bad contracts, and I suppose the Phils could look at paying it down to like $8MM in total or something to just shed $4MM per season. But generally speaking, it's one of the tougher contracts in the game to move.
No way jose
3:00
Do the Yankees need another catcher?
Steve Adams
3:01
If Austin Wells were to get hurt, their catching corps would be a combination of Alex Jackson and rookies JC Escarra, Jesus Rodriguez and Rafael Flores. I'd want another veteran in there.
Kevin
3:01
Grichuk was mentioned for the pirates. Do you think they'll meet his asking price?
Steve Adams
3:02
I don't think Grichuk's asking price can be all that large. He's a platoon fourth outfielder. A pretty good one, since he absolutely pummels lefties, but if got more than like, two years and $12MM, I'd be surprised. He should be within Pittsburgh's modest comfort level.
Go Guardians!!!!!!
3:02
With Seattle being so quiet, any chance the wind changes direction and Bregman ends up in Seattle?
Load More Messages
Connecting…