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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat with Steve Adams: 2/17/25
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Steve Adams
3:36
I don't really think extending Schwarber or JTR for a couple years would preclude them from earnestly pursing Tucker next winter. Maybe Schwarber would sort of block a Vlad signing, since you'd have Harper at 1B and Schwarbs at DH long-term. Broadly though, I think if they really want to pursue Tucker, they'll have the means to do so. Vlad does feel a little bit less likely, just given the context of the roster.
John B
3:36
Each year there are a few mid-tier playoff hopeful teams that fall out early. Which teams would you think might stumble this year and would that open up early trade possibilities.
Steve Adams
3:39
Among actual hopeful contenders...

There's a ton of health risk in the Rangers' rotation and even more performance volatility in their bullpen than most, given the volume approach to building it out.

The Brewers' rotation feels similarly shaky. I think they're good enough at maximizing performance from marginal arms that they'll weather it, but a couple injuries on that staff -- especially if one is to Freddy Peralta -- would be dangerous, since they don't have the ownership support to address them in a meaningful way.
Seattle lineup
3:39
Do you see former Chicago closer Gregory Santos ever getting a significant number of saves in Seattle? Or does his future depend on the health and contract of Andres Muñoz?

Likewise, with Seattle's outfield resting on a wing and a prayer (aka Robles and Arozarena), will Samad Taylor ever see the light of day?
Steve Adams
3:41
Santos will probably get occasional save opps if he's healthy, but Munoz is just better, to me, and will get more. A little bit of the shine has come off Munoz since his comedically dominant 2022 season, but he's still outrageously talented.

Taylor passed through waivers unclaimed. He didn't hit well even in AAA last year (88 wRC+... .262/.352/.380 overall). I don't see him making a huge impact this year, but with enough injuries in the OF and/or at 2B, he could force his way back in if he's hitting well in Tacoma.
baseball gods laugh and laugh
3:41
What do you expect the Mets to do if Montas is expected to miss a large part of the season?
Steve Adams
3:45
I think you can already say he's expected to miss a large part of the season. He's shut down totally for 6-8 weeks. That's no throwing until early or mid-April. He then has to build all the way back up, setback-free. So you're looking at probably late May, best-case scenario?

I already wrote two week ago that I didn't feel the Mets did enough with their rotation this winter. They added volume over quality. It didn't dovetail with their approach elsewhere. They can still bring back Quintana for a year or sign Gibson to replace the innings.

I'd personally just pony up and offer like Baty+Sproat for Dylan Cease and see how committed the Padres are to keeping him. Failing that, I don't know that there's a hugely impactful arm you could realistically pursue, so just re-sign Q and push for a bigger impact add in July as the deadline looms.
Tiger Fan
3:45
Why is maeda in the running for a rotation spot? He throws 89 and was awful last year.
Steve Adams
3:49
He did come out averaging 89ish early last year but he was sitting 91 by the time they bumped him from the rotation. (Not that that's good, just saying)

He's being considered for simple reasons:

1) They're paying him, regardless.
2) He has a track record and was excellent as recently as 2023, when he posted a 3.36 ERA, 29 K% and 7 BB% over his final 16 starts as a Twin upon returning from a triceps injury
3) He still showed good command and missed bats at an almost passable level last year. He was super homer-prone, but home-run rates vary heavily year-over-year and he hasn't had that much of a homer issue in the past
4) He posted a 4.44 ERA with a 46-to-8 K/BB ratio over his final 46 innings.
3:50
Plus, Cobb is hurt, so you take a look at all your options and consider. I don't think Maeda's going to get back to being a low-3.00s guy, but the idea that he can be a five-inning starter with something like a 4.00 to 4.40 ERA isn't crazy to me, and with such a deep 'pen in Detroit, that might be all they need in the fifth spot of the rotation
Kokonuts
3:51
Healthy Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Boom or Bust?  I have him penciled in for .260/.315/.465/.780.  Do I need an eraser?
Steve Adams
3:54
I've never been big on CES. In general, the margin for error on short-side platoon guys with middling OBP upside, lots of swing-and-miss in their game and shaky defensive skills is nonexistent. You get your occasional Pete Alonso, but most of those guys fizzle out (and Alonso probably has true 80-grade raw power, whereas CES is more like "only" a 70).

I'd take the under on that average and OBP. For me he's more like a .230 to .240 hitter with an upper-200s OBP and mid-400s slugging, probably with some notable home/road splits just because GABP helps everyone.
3:55
I'm probably more bearish on him than a lot of folks, though. I feel like either Anthony or Darragh likes him a good bit more than me? It's been awhile since we talked about CES among ourselves.
Go Guardians!!!!
3:55
What do you think about the John Means signing?
Steve Adams
3:56
For a million bucks and no buyout on the option, why not? I'm pretty skeptical of anyone coming back from a second TJS, especially someone whose velo was down like 3.5 mph before going under the knife the second time, but you're talking about as minimal risk as possible there. Hard to be critical
James
3:56
Is a slash line of .300/.340/.420 realistic for Jacob Wilson in 2025?
Steve Adams
3:58
Love the hit tool there, but .300 is tough for anyone in the majors and Wilson was chasing off the plate a whole lot in the majors last year (and, really, a decent amount even in AAA). I'd come in lighter than that but do think he can be a comfortably above-average, hit-over-power bat in 2025.
Brett Schmidt?
3:58
Is Baty really still that highly regarded? He has a 70 OPS+ in 602 PA.
Steve Adams
4:01
Baty's stock is down from its peak, sure, but plenty of teams would love to try to fix him. He's had pretty inconsistent looks in the majors and has continued to hit well in AAA. He's still only 25 (and will be all season). Controlled five years and has an option in 2025.

I think fans sour on guys who come up and struggle in limited opportunities more quickly than a lot of teams do. It varies case to case, but I mean ... just look at the crazy lengths the Braves went to in order to buy Kelenic after he struggled in Seattle. They took on like $32MM in dead money and a whole bunch of taxes on those sunk costs.
Pirate Scott
4:01
What does Bubba Chandler have to do in Spring Training to make the Opening Day roster?
Steve Adams
4:03
You've already got three spots locked down with Skenes, Jones and Keller. I imagine Oviedo is largely penciled in, Falter too, if healthy. But those guys are more written in pencil than ink; if Chandler just steamrolled opponents while Falter/Oviedo/Ashcraft/Harrington all struggled greatly, maybe you could see it.

But the Bucs also held Skenes down last year when he was clearly ready, so I'm not 100% sure they'd carry Chandler in any situation.
Ken
4:03
Where do you think the AL West stands right now? Astros are older and without Bregman and Tucker. Mariners stayed pat, but have a great rotation. A's spent some money, but Severino and Springs both have red flags. Rangers are coming off a lot of injuries and that rotation looks like it's held together by duct tape. And the Angels have made some nice additions, but come on. With how good the AL East and the Guardians/Royals/Tigers are, do you think the West gets any of the wild card spots?
Steve Adams
4:05
Yeah, I don't think a Wild Card team is coming out of the West.

I have an impossible-to-overcome, unrelenting blind spot for the Mariners' rotation and I continue to pick them every year just because that staff is so, so talented. Plus, as you said, the Rangers have a lot of questions on the staff (rotation and bullpen), and the Astros lost Tucker+Bregman .. I expect plenty of competition, but it's hard for me to write off that Seattle rotation, especially when coupled with the talent they have in Julio, Raleigh, Arozarena (albeit more raw talent than consistency)
4:07
Alright, I've got to wrap this up for the week. I have two very loud screaming children upstairs (3 and 1) and a wife who is probably at her wit's end, haha. I'm going to shift over to dad duties here and try to lighten the load.

I'm on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.

Thank you, as always, for supporting MLBTR with your subscriptions. It's humbling and means an enormous amount to us, both business-wise an also just personally. You guys are the best and I'm grateful for each and every one of our subscribers.

I'll have a free chat on the main site tomorrow or Wednesday (depending on a doctor appt for my son tomorrow and how long it takes)
Anthony will have a subscriber chat on Friday afternoon.
4:08
Thanks everyone, and have a great week!
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