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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat with Steve Adams: 5/12/25
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Dave Dombrowski
2:52
How can I let Kyle Schwarber reach free agency? Will 4/110 be enough to keep him in Philly now?
Steve Adams
2:53
Not the first I've seen a $100MM number floated for Schwarber -- Scott Lauber mentioned it in the Inquirer today, and I believe Jeff Passan did recently as well at ESPN -- but that number seems stone-cold bonkers to me, given the manner in which the market has treated mid-30s sluggers in recent years.
2:55
Schwarber is still QO-eligible, so he's going to receive and reject a QO. He'll turn 33 next March. A quick look at our Contract Tracker shows that over the past decade, there are exactly zero position players who've been guaranteed $100MM starting at age 33 or later. The largest is Josh Donaldson's $92MM, but he was still seen as an above-average defender at third base.
2:56
Schwarber is a DH with occasional LF appearances. I don't know who's giving him four years, good as he is at the plate. He has the bigtime leadership vibes which maybe help him in a way that hasn't been there for others, but he'd only be the second hitter his age to even get to $80MM.
2:57
The market has moved forward, of course, and it only takes one team, but 100+ would be historic for a player in this age range. I'm probably more like $75-80MM over three years.
Guest
2:57
Any thoughts on what the Reds can do with Jeimer Candelario.  His baseball savant page suggests he's nowhere close to being a competent hitter, but the Reds owe him $15 million this year and next.  Is there anything that can be done to fix him or is the team going to just have to eat that contract and move on?
Steve Adams
3:01
I loved the price the got Candelario at, but he hasn't been healthy at all in Cincinnati. He played through tendinitis in his knee the entire first half last year, then broke his toe in August, and is now out with a lumbar strain in his spine. From 2020-23, Candy was a well above-average hitter in three of four seasons, but I don't think that version of him has ever been present since signing in Cincinnati.

They could try to swap him for another bad contract, but those types of deals are speculated on far more than they're ever actually completed. Best thing they can do is try to get him healthy and hope he hits, but even though I liked the signing at the time, I'm not optimistic based on how the first 8 months of play under that deal have panned out.
Just a fan
3:02
Steve, once Keaschall is healthy where do they play him? Is he this generation's Edgar Martínez (ha) or bc it's the Twins he has to be able to field a position? And from there, I guess, if the latter then where? Twins seem good at getting guys like Lee and Castro to play all over to stay in lineup. And yes, someone will get hurt and obviate the need to actually answer this question... ;)
Steve Adams
3:05
If everyone's healthy, Keaschall just fits into that jack-of-all-trades utility role for me. Castro's holding that down to an extent right now, but he'll be a free agent and I doubt he'll be re-signed.

Looking to 2026 and beyond, I think the ideal alignment is Lewis at third, Correa at short and Lee at second. Keaschall could get some 1B time, but they'll have Julien in the mix and who knows, the Twins could look to move Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner to first base with Buxton, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins all in that near-term OF mix as well. Edouard Julien is in play there also.

There's enough injury risk, especially on the left side of that infield, that you could see plenty of scenarios where Lee is playing 3B or SS regularly, and Keaschall gets more 2B time.
3:06
The bat with Keaschall is more important than where he's playing. They'll find ways to make it work and yes, as you said, injuries solve such logjams organically.
Royals
3:06
Coming back down to earth after losing 2/3?  The schedule gets harder from here
Steve Adams
3:10
No one's going to sustain the pace they had where they won -- I think -- 15 of 18 games? It's nice to get a run where you can beat up on the Rockies, White Sox and an in-tatters Orioles club all in the same run.

In that sense, yeah, they'll regress a bit. It's inevitable.

At the same time, as long as the Royals can avoid a major injury to Witt, Ragans, Lugo or Bubic, they're in pretty good shape. I don't love the team's depth, but they do have Jac Caglianone rising quick to hopefully add another legitimate bat to the lineup -- in the outfield, no less, where they so desperately need help. Beyond that, it's not great, but they made this top-heavy setup work last year.

If they lose Witt and/or Ragans for like two months though, oof.
Jay
3:10
Hi Steve, thanks for taking these questions. Did Taijuan Walker do anything to improve his trade value this first month-and-a-half of the season, or do you think other teams have more or less maintained their view on him / his contract?
Steve Adams
3:13
He's done a few things that I do believe point to some legitimate change over his 2024 profile (in a way that isn't true with Baez, who I touched on earlier in regard to a similar question).

Walker's velo is up nearly a mile per hour, on average, with his four-seamer. It's still below-average, but a 92.4 mph feels better than 91.5 mph. His sinker is up a mile. He's also ramped up the usage of a cutter that was barely used last year but has gotten really nice results so far in 2025.

The swinging-strike rate is up a percentage point, but 7.6% is still near the bottom of the league. I don't think he's going to keep running a nearly average strikeout rate.
3:14
So ... he looks better than last year, yes. He does not look at all capable of sustaining a 2-something ERA.
Could they find a trade partner if they pay him down to something like $6-7MM per year? That feels more plausible now than it did two months ago
Josh
3:14
You must watch a lot of baseball in this line of work - how often do you get to sit down and watch a full 9 innings of one game vs bouncing around or using a red zone style multiview?
Steve Adams
3:17
I like to bounce around and rarely watch the same teams in succession when I do watch nine inning. I used to watch 100+ Twins game per season as a Minnesotan, before getting into baseball as a full-time gig. Getting home from the office and turning on the local nine was an escape from reality.

Now it's more finding pitching matchups I like, seeing prospects I haven't gotten a look at, that sort of thing. Honestly I probably watch less baseball than I did prior to working in baseball full-time. But that's a function of me being a total baseball sicko when I had an office job, having kids now, and also sometimes just wanting a mental break from it.

I still consume more baseball than should be considered normal or healthy, haha
I've got to wrap this up for the week, unfortunately. I'm on X @Adams_Steve or Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social for more questions. Thanks so much for joining, as always!
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