JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat with Steve Adams: 5/5/25

Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat with Steve Adams: 5/5/25

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Steve Adams

12:15

Cinco de Mayo! Let's chat. We'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to send in your questions ahead of time. Looking forward to it!

1:55

Good afternoon! Let's get going

Marcus Stroman

1:55

When a pitcher pitches in a minor league rehab game, do those innings count towards a vesting option? Asking for a friend.

Steve Adams

1:56

Ha -- they do not. Major League innings only.

Rox

1:56

Call me crazy, but I have a really good time watching the Rockies play this year. Their games are just really entertaining because you never know what's going to happen with these guys. Monfort and the front office unintentionally put together the funniest baseball team in history, but maybe now their new strategy is: "Hey, we have no interest in baseball, but maybe we can put together a real life version of the Bad News Bears and gain some notoriety that way."

Dick Monfort

1:56

My Rockies are presently tracking to complete this season with 29-133 record. Why should I be optimistic that we will be better than that with the current roster?

Steve Adams

1:57

Different tones for two different Rox questions here, haha

2:00

I don't think there's much reason to be optimistic. I think you can be optimistic that they won't lose THIS much, as it feels statistically impossible for a team to continue at a 133-loss pace, but that's a pretty low bar for optimism. And I don't think it's at all out of the question that they challenge the White Sox' 2024 record for futility.

I like the Bad News Bears outlook, because you might as well find some way to make it watchable and entertaining -- or else just turn it off. I don't see much hope for a competitive product there. The roster is just not good, the farm isn't going to produce much help. They're just in a really bad spot, and I don't see any quick way out of it -- especially with the organization SO set in its ways

D Hat

2:00

How surprised are you by Detroit’s successful first month?

Steve Adams

2:04

I picked them to make the playoffs, albeit as a Wild Card. But the AL is generally so close, that I think any of the clubs I put down on my playoff picks could've gotten out to this start and I'd have been unsurprised. Someone's got to step up.

I like the Tigers' pitching. I've said in the past that I think there's still a good hitter in Torkelson somewhere (so far, so good). Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter can hit. Getting a random burst like this out of McKinstry is surprising to an extent, but we see weird BABIP spikes in April all the time and then watch them even out. That's probably what's in store for him.

In general, I don't find the fact that they're pacing the AL particularly surprising. I wouldn't have picked it, but it felt within the realm of reason.

Sultans of Swing

2:04

We have a torn bicep (Ryan Bliss), a broken hamate (Francisco Alvarez and numerous others), and what seems like a zillion oblique injuries -- from just swinging a bat. At a certain point (e.g. Mike Trout, Tristan Casas), you have to wonder whether these players' bodies really want them to play baseball. Theory: To catch up to 100 mph (and to please the Sabermetrics crowd), hitters bulk up for extra swing velocity. But their body structure can't really handle that, and here we are. We have 100 mph Tommy John guys and 100 mph non-contact swinging injuries, and why is this exactly? "Chicks dig the long ball," sure, but this isn't counter-productive at a certain point? Maybe MLB should cap pitches at 99 mph. Anything over that is called a ball. For their own good. Thoughts on any of this?

Steve Adams

2:07

Strongly dislike the idea of ever capping velocity. Let them play how they're going to play. I was just talking with Anthony, Darragh and Tim about this earlier today -- basically the idea that we're seeing athletes push the boundaries of what the human physique can withstand. There's probably some truth to that.

I understand the frustration, but the idea that modern philosophy is to "appease the sabermetric crowd" -- I don't agree with that. Players are playing the way they do in an effort to maximize their earnings. Front offices are rewarding skills and trends because the teams that deprioritized velocity and kept pitching to contact/emphasizing more conventional small ball just ... weren't as good as the rest of the league.

2:09

So maybe it's "appeasing the stat crowd" or however you want to frame it, but those traits have become more and more en vogue because they've been conducive to winning.

I'd love to see some new trends come around to disrupt the groupthink that permeates modern front offices, but I don't like the idea of artificially capping a player's physicality.

baseball gods laugh and laugh

2:10

Of Javy Baéz, Patrick Corbin, Maikel García, Carson Kelly, Ben Rice, and Spencer Torkelson, who is most likely to have a better than average season?

Steve Adams

2:10

I can buy above-average seasons from any of Rice, Tork and Garcia -- Rice most of all.

Rick

2:11

What are your impressions on Cam Smith? Has kind of struggled, but was put in a tough spot as a rookie learning a new position. Has he shown enough to be Houston's starting RF long-term?

Steve Adams

2:15

He's had one absolutely colossal game and struggled immensely on either end of that. It's sort of the inverse of when it's early and we say, "Well this pitcher's ERA is a zillion, but it's because he gave up 9 runs in 2 innings. It'll even out."

Smith seems like an exceptional athlete who's making pretty decent swing decisions and has a super bright future. But he's not making contact in the zone or especially off the plate anywhere near close enough to find success at the moment.

I definitely buy him as a potential long-term piece in their outfield, but he looks overmatched right now, which shouldn't be a huge surprise for a 22-year-old who had only 32 pro games under his belt coming into the year.

Like him a lot long term, but I do think he'd benefit for some more development.

Brewer Fan

2:16

Saw a blurb on a site about how Joey Ortiz needs to get it going or the Brewers might have to try someone else. Do we have anyone else? Assuming they aren't going to Pratt yet and obviously not Made yet.. Ortiz kinda seems locked in by default.

Steve Adams

2:20

It's pretty bleak, yeah. They could slide Brice Turang over to shortstop and give Freddy Zamora a look at 2B. Or just play Zamora at SS and don't mess with Brice. Zamora is on a tear in AAA at the moment. I don't have huge faith that he'd come up and smooth things over, but maybe you could get a few decent weeks out of him while Ortiz gets right in Triple-A. The current setup isn't working. There's just not a lot to be done, and the Brewers don't have much (well, any) money to spend -- which is part of the reason they're in this place.

At least Caleb Durbin has helped to improve things at third base?

TheBeatlesShow

2:21

Does Jacob deGrom...with all of his injuries...still have a chance to make the Hall of Fame...and what benchmarks does he need to hit to get there? Thanks Steve

Steve Adams

2:26

He's already a former Rookie of the Year and a 2x Cy Young winner. He'd get some votes if he retired today. If he can be mostly healthy for the next few seasons and just keep putting up innings, he'll probably find his way in just because of the dominance of his peak. He's already at 43-44 WAR on both B-Ref and FanGraphs.

He's not going to many of the conventional benchmarks for HOF consideration. He'll probably retire with well under 150 wins. He's not going to have a gaudy innings count. But per-inning, he's one of the best pitchers we've ever seen.

Small-hall fans will never like my opinion on the matter, but I generally think the Hall of Fame is a museum to commemorate the greats of their eras and don't think it should be quite so exclusive. There are egregious exceptions (Harold Baines? Really?) but deGrom was probably the best pitcher in the majors for the better part of seven seasons, he still has some years left to go, and topping 50 WAR is damn hard.

George

2:26

I am curious about two minor leaguers who seem blocked due to, I dunno, maybe sunk costs fallacy on behalf of their teams. Bryce Eldrige feels like he's ready to try to take 1B on from LWJ in San Francisco, but I understand they may want him to get him to face AAA pitching. But what about Dalton Rushing? Is he just blocked from this really great Dodgers lineup this year? Is it really practical to lose time with a prospect that good?

Steve Adams

2:28

Eldridge turned 20 in October. He entered the season with eight games -- and not good ones -- against AAA pitching. He missed the first month of the season on the injured list. He's posted nice slash stats in 10 games since returning, but he's also struck out at a 35% clip. I'm not sure I agree he's ready. Could he maybe be better than this version of LaMonte Wade? Sure. Is that what's best for his long-term development, though? I would argue it's not.

2:31

As for Rushing, he does just feel increasingly blocked. They're moving him around to different positions to try get him some more versatility. You could pretty easily argue the team is better with Rushing in Chris Taylor's roster spot. He could cycle around and start 1-2 games per week at 1B, C and in LF and provide more value.

If the Dodgers were struggling considerably, I imagine it'd be a bigger consideration. Right now, they're leading the West without him and can conserve some depth while further working to get him some innings at new positions. I'd like to see him up sooner than later still though, agreed.

M’s Fan

2:31

If Cal Raleigh hits 40 HR but still under .240 can he be the AL MVP?

Steve Adams

2:32

Very few voters in today's group of BBWAA are going to care about the batting average. If he hits .230 with 40+ homers and elite defense and on-base skills, all while leading the Mariners to the playoffs, yes he can be an MVP candidate.

Phil (Charm City)

2:33

As a Sad Orioles Fan, should I have any reason to think that the O's aren't the 2020 White Sox/Blue Jays, who were an up-and-coming team for a couple years that never really realized that potential? Some hope for 2026 and the future would be great right now. We're used to the Birds being out of it in May, but this wasn't supposed to be one of those years.

Steve Adams

2:36

I'd say more of their core has proven itself at the majors than with the White Sox. The Blue Jays never quite reached that point, I don't think, where they were just overrun with touted position-playing prospects.

Rutschman hasn't looked like a star in some time, but he's still an average-hitting catcher, which is a nice floor. I think Henderson is a star and will be fine. Holliday is having a nice breakthrough. Westburg isn't quite up to Henderson's level, but I think he can be a solid, lower-OBP infielder with plenty of power. Mayo will take over at a corner soon, and we're not even talking about Colton Cowser yet.

2:38

I'm more bullish on the Orioles' outlook than I was the others, but the lack of pitching is glaring. You'd hope that this offseason spurs the front office to change their approach. They've been so, so risk-averse ... so much so that they were actually taking a greater risk with the way they approached the staff, in my view.

I'd rather roll the dice on some mid-range free agent deals for starting pitchers and/or trade a Kjerstad or even a Mayo/Basallo for multiple years of a higher-end pitcher than hope a bunch of late-30s/early-40s vets on one-year deals can hold down the fort.

Judge MVP

2:38

Um, it's gonna be me.

Steve Adams

2:40

Most likely, sure. Injuries happen though. Broader point was that no one's going to overlook an MVP-caliber performance all around because they hit .235 instead of .260 or .270. If the on-base, power, defense etc are all there, that's going to win out. Most voters really don't care about average.

Sons of Pitches

2:40

Which Seattle Pitcher(s) might be available if Arizona offered Lawlar? It's unlikely either team wants to trade those particular pieces, but they could help each other in 2025 and beyond.

Steve Adams

2:43

I think Lawlar would be a justifiable centerpiece to acquire basically any of Seattle's pitchers. (Arizona would still need to add more.) The Mariners probably disagree, based on Dipoto's infamous "plan Z" comments, but Lawlar is a 22-year-old, plug-and-play former No. 6 overall pick who is utterly laying waste to upper minors pitching once again. Conceptually, I agree that it's worth exploring. In practice, however, I also agree that you're right on neither team really wanting to move those pieces.

Boston's Firstbase

2:43

Boston's solution at first base: A. Go with Romy Gonzalez and call up Grissom to join the ultily group. B. Sign Rizzo. C. Trade for a veteran like Mouncastle, France or C. Give Devers reps over the next two weeks and let him play D. A block buster trade with Oakland involving Rafaela and another prospect for Kurtz.

Cora

2:43

What is the best overall solution for 1B? Keep Romy there and see what he can do? Move Devers there? Call up Grissom? Move Story and call up Mayer? Other solutions??

Steve Adams

2:47

I know they don't want to, but I'd just be using this as a means to get Roman Anthony up to the majors, whether that's putting him at 1B or shuffling others around to get him into the lineup. He's every bit as young as some of the others I've pushed back on rushing to the big leagues, but he's been ripping through Double-A and Triple-A pitching for the better part of a year and has nearly as many walks (17%) as strikeouts (20%) in Worcester to start the season.

I don't think it's worth signing Rizzo -- they'd pay a 20% tax on top of any salary, remember -- when he's not going to be ready in the short term. The A's aren't going to trade Kurtz or Soderstrom. Cora has said they're going to keep Devers at DH. Mountcastle is a buy-low option himself, and France can't even be traded right now since he signed as a free agent and it's prior to June 15. (Well, he could, he'd just need to approve it)

2:48

Rangers are calling up Evan Carter, says Chris Young

Also says they're working on bringing in an external candidate at hitting coach

Michael

2:48

Is Trout a given for the HOF?

Steve Adams

2:49

He could've retired after the 2018 or 2019 season and probably gotten in without issue. He's a lock.

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