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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat with Steve Adams: 9/13/24
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Steve Adams
3:42
(In reference to earlier Daniels question)
3:43
I never claimed to be the smartest anything, ha.

There haven't been that many top openings around the game. The White Sox are insular and were always going to stay in house. Cohen has wanted Stearns since he bought the Mets. The Marlins want to be the Rays 2.0.

I imagine Daniels will get another top job somewhere. He's super respected and did a nice job in Texas for a lot of years, even though their lack of development proved costly as time wore on.
Batted ball data
3:44
Do you think one of the reasons teams have embraced batted ball data and babip is because it gets around some of the noise of a changing ball from year to year?
Steve Adams
3:45
I think teams embraced batted-ball metrics before constant changes to the baseball were really a problem -- at least a publicly obvious one anyway. Those metrics are just more predictive than something rudimentary like batting average. They provide more context and give you a better picture of a hitter's probable trajectory.
Colorado
3:45
Doyle and Tovar are awesome. There are possibly some other hitting prospects on their way yes? Should we expect to get solid enough performances out of our high pitching draftees? Or will we ride an offense to our next postseason berth and hope someone can have an ok Coors Experience in October?
Steve Adams
3:49
I was so down on Brenton Doyle heading into the season. Good on him. What a year he's had. He's improved in basically every single component of his offense.

I don't think Colorado has anywhere near enough pitching. Even if Chase Dollander breaks camp next season and wins Rookie of the Year, the rest of the staff is just so rough. Feltner/Quantrill/Freeland are maybe 4th/5th starters. Tough to know what to expect from Marquez next year. I've never liked Senzatela and was shocked when they extended him.

Plus, as their current staff shows, odds are some of those arms are going to get hurt (or, in Quantrill's case, be traded/reach free agency). They're either going to have to trade some position prospects for pitching or just hope Doyle/Tovar/McMahon can keep hitting, that Jones can rebound (I'm skeptical) and that Condon is the masher they expect (which I think he will be)
GBS42
3:50
The Nationals-Soto article from Thursday is stirring up quite the debate in the comments.  Given the dearth of long-term, big-dollar contracts last year (aside from the Dodgers), do you have any concerns of a similar freeze on Soto?  My thinking is he's so young and undeniably talented he'll get a massive deal, probably breaking the NPV AAV and total contract amounts.  Others see a DH in waiting who could age quickly.
Steve Adams
3:51
I'll be very surprised if he doesn't clear $500MM. He's one of the best hitters on the planet, and he's hardly a defensive liability. He's improved this season, and even if he'll never be a plus, he still has an absolute cannon of an arm and can move well enough to play a passable corner.

I think teams are going to salivate over the guy and he's going to smash contractual precedents.
Joe J.
3:52
Does Cohen give Soto a blank check or has Stearns convinced him to spend more responsibly?
Steve Adams
3:53
I fully expect the Mets to be among the most aggressive bidders on Soto. And I can guarantee David Stearns would love to have Juan Soto in his lineup. He doesn't need to worry about "responsible" contracts nearly as much as he did in Milwaukee. You get like one chance every 15-20 years to sign a guy like Soto at this age. Throw caution to the wind.
Keep up the good work
3:54
I really enjoy the content, I saw a competitor recently put their articles behind a paywall. Is it hard for independent outlets to compete with the 3 & 4 letter sports giants? I prefer your guys content so much I never even visit espn and such
Steve Adams
3:57
Yeah FanGraphs just put up a metered paywall for their articles as well, and I think they're 100% worth it, as I tweeted this morning. I suppose they're a "competitor" in the sense that they're an independently owned baseball site as well, but I don't see them that way. Hell, Leo Morgenstern writes for MLBTR and for FanGraphs, ha. I've met a lot of the people over there and they're all great.

To your broader point, it's increasingly difficult for independent sites, yeah. Ad rates have decreased, there have been sweeping changes to search engine algorithms -- it's a volatile business model. That's part of the reason we both created our subscription service but opted to only really put our tools/databases and bonus, opinion-focused content and analysis behind it for the most part
Flip Flop
3:57
I have to call you out on saying Soto has a cannon of an arm. I've watched every Yankees game this year. I've seen cannons and that's no cannon.
Steve Adams
3:58
It's true that it's not a cannon in and of itself. That's fair. It's extremely accurate, however, and that adds to the value. Statcast has him in the 97th percentile of value from his arm, but you're correct that in terms of pure strength and velocity behind the throws, he's no Rick Ankiel or anything
3:59
I merely meant that his overall throwing game is an asset, but it was poorly worded.
For Love of the Game
3:59
Should the Tigers consider dealing from their surprising surplus of starting pitching rather than assuming they win the Bregman sweepstakes?  What sort of return could you envision outside of Skubal and Olson?  It isn't an elite or even proven bunch, but they make up for it in volume with Mize, Maeda, Montero, Madden, and Hurter, plus Manning, Sawyer-Long and Jobe becoming available to the parent club sometime in 2025.
Steve Adams
4:03
I wrote something earlier this season on how I don't believe there's any such thing as a "surplus" in baseball and I stand by that in general but especially with regard to the Tigers. Skubal and Olson are elite and good, respectively. The rest of the bunch has a laundry list of injury troubles and/or minimal track record. If they trade Matt Manning, I won't be surprised, but he's not going to net them their third baseman of the future either. Ditto Mize. Plus, Skubal could be gone after 2026.

I would absolutely be open to some kind of package deal to move pitching talent (non-Skubal/Olson/Jobe bucket) for a proven option at third base or in an outfield corner, but I don't see what the Tigers have as a surplus so much as a decent bank of options from which to draw hope. It's not as though they have multiple deserving MLB-caliber starters who just don't have a place in the rotation because they're so stacked.
Pursuing Bregman makes sense to me, but I think he'll probably land a contract that extends beyond where I'd go for that specific team.
Braves
4:04
its not looking like our year. Do you think NY pushes us out of the playoffs?
Steve Adams
4:07
It's genuinely a coinflip at this point. The Mets currently have a one-game lead, but they also have a much harder schedule with 7 against the Phillies and a 3-game set in Milwaukee to close out the year. The teams also play each other for one three-game series, in Atlanta.

If I'm forced to choose, I'd probably give the slight edge to the Braves -- sorry Mets fans -- just because A) they have six straight against sub-.500 clubs (Reds, Marlins) and because they host that pivotal showdown series.

But we're talking like 51-49 or 52-48 here in terms of percentages for me.
Tony Taters
4:07
Follow up: does Santander accept the offer? He's valuable leadership for the o's.
Steve Adams
4:07
I think he'll turn it down and get a strong three- or four-year deal in free agency.
4:08
And probably not from the Orioles
Farhan owns Boras
4:08
Declined a $300 million + contract on Correa and then sign Chapman, Snell and Lee for less overall money. Farhan knows how to play Boras perfectly.
Steve Adams
4:10
Jung Hoo Lee got twice as much money as I was expecting. His contract shocked our whole staff and a lot of people who work in the sport.

Also, while I assume your comment was tongue-in-cheek anyhow, they still agreed to that $350MM term! Just backed out when they looked at his ankle.
Curious A's Fan
4:11
Bleday would look a lot better in LF. Who are some available CF options the A's could trade for?
Steve Adams
4:13
I don't think there are a ton of good options. Cedric Mullins might be out there, but he just has the one year of control remaining. Johan Rojas if they want a glove-first option, but there's not much offensive upside there. I could see the Rangers moving Leody Taveras, but he's coming off a down season and obviously in the same division. Maybe the Dodgers would consider James Outman.
Good Good Things, The Descendants
4:14
Alonzo, Soto, Santander, Walker, Goldy, Teoscar, there’s going to be a lot of LF/DH/1B types on the market this year. Do any of them (not counting Goldschmidt) accept a QO?
Steve Adams
4:14
I could see Goldschmidt accepting if he's offered. None of the others, no. (Walker would be next likeliest, but I doubt it)
4:18
Alright, I've got to get ready to go pick up my boys from daycare. I'm on X @Adams_Steve for more questions. Sorry for the ones I couldn't get to today.  Anthony should be back next week, so I'm guessing he'll be handling this chat next time around.

Thanks to all of you for participating, and thanks for subscribing (plus the kind words from those of you who chimed in about how you feel our subscription service is well worth it). Your support means the world to us. It's humbling and super cool, as a lifelong baseball geek, that I get to do this job and that there are dedicated readers who think highly enough of the manner in which I do it that you'd pay your hard-earned money to support it. You guys are the best, and I'll never stop appreciating that.
Have a great weekend, and enjoy the playoff pushes!
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