You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat with Steve Adams: 9/6/24
powered byJotCast
Steve Adams
12:10
Happy Friday everyone! Anthony is off today, so I'm stepping in and hosting our subscriber chat this week. I'll get going at 3pm CT, but feel free to ask a question ahead of time! Looking forward to it!
3:00
Hello! Let's get underay
underway, even
Joff
3:00
Many times when there is a big trade, we'll know the big name being moved but the other players involved tend to trickle out slowly. What's behind this?
Steve Adams
3:04
There's a variety of reasons. Sometimes it's as simple as waiting to inform all of the players involved of the trade. Sometimes, a reporter might get wind of the main piece of a trade but not the entire package, and trying to ascertain the entire trade while sitting on the main piece of info might mean someone else beats you to that portion of the scoop.

More broadly, a lot of information is leaked strategically. Teams, agents, reporters etc. are all using information as currency. You'll see one person report the main components of the trade, someone else get other smaller pieces, etc. because that's the way the GM, agent, whoever is divulging things. It happens in free agency, too. One person will have "[Player] is signing with [team]." Someone else will get the basic framework, another will get more granular terms, etc.

It's (usually, but not always) a lot more controlled than it looks to fans.
Cat Herder
3:05
Steve,  The Tigers? I know better than to get my hopes up after 40 years since the last WS win, but these guys are young, exciting, and have me hoping just bit. Any chance of a WC steal? Where do we look in the future or is this time on the rise?
Steve Adams
3:08
They have a lot of exciting young players. You *should* be hopeful! I wouldn't hold out too much hope sneaking into the Wild Card mix, although I picked them as a WC team preseason, so if they want to make me look less dumb, then kudos to them and thanks for your efforts, ha. FanGraphs and PECOTA have them at about 7-8% of making the playoffs, for what it's worth.

The Tigers need to pursue starting pitching help this winter, and I'd like to see them grab an outfield bat of some note. You've got two years left with Skubal. Greene, Keith, Torkelson redux, and Carpenter can all hit. Reese Olson's underrated.

But they can't count on Manning/Mize at this point, and Jackson Jobe is going to finish out this season around 100 innings, none of them coming in AAA.
3:11
The Tigers have a blank-slate long term payroll. They don't need to go out and sign Corbin Burnes -- though props to them if they can manage it -- but a reunion with Jack Flaherty or a run at one of Snell/Fried shouldn't be out of the question for the ownership and front office. They could also look to the trade market, but there aren't as many obvious difference-makers there.

At the very least, they should be shopping in the Luis Severino/Nick Pivetta/Sean Manaea aisle, but I'd like to see them go a bit bigger
mlbfan
3:11
Skubal or Clase for cy young?
Steve Adams
3:14
Innings matter a ton to me in Cy Young voting, which gives me a hard time assigning it to a reliever. What Clase's done on a rate basis is remarkable, but Skubal will end up with 3x the innings, and that's too wide a gap for me to overcome. If there wasn't a clear ace-caliber pitcher enjoying a big season, I could see getting behind Clase more strongly. But between Skubal, Logan Gilbert and others, Clase isn't at the top of the list for my nonexistent vote
Pip
3:14
Can you comment on the New York conflict regarding Verdugo and Dominguez? Are there any legitimate reasons for not making the switch?
Steve Adams
3:16
It's super weird to me as well. Cashman's answers have just not been sufficient. Even his comment about Verdugo playing better of late was half-hearted. Verdugo's past five games have been bad, as have his past 20. It seems like he tried to hype the past 10-11 games specifically, so as to include a two-hit and three-hit game and say "Look, he's hitting .320 over this stretch!"

It's a cherry-picked sample, and the simple fact is that Verdugo hasn't hit since the end of April. He's been one of the worst hitters in the sport among regular players in that time, in fact. I don't see any justifiable reason that Dominguez shouldn't be starting over him, plain and simple.
3:17
And if the Yankees end up finishing second by one game or something, man will that be a bad look.
M's
3:17
With the news that Jerry DiPoto will return as chief executive of the Mariners next year, can you give an assessment of why every nearly hitter he's brought in as a free agent in recent years—other than Nelson Cruz and Adiran Beltre—have failed? Also, while Victor Robles was a waiver-wire pick-up, the M's extended him based on a small sample size of success in Seattle. Is he really going to be a fixture? Also, do the M's need a different kind of manager? Dan Wilson (and Scott Servais before him), where exactly the kinds of demanding figures that Lou Pinella and Dick Williams were.
Steve Adams
3:20
If I had a good answer as to why every hitter the Mariners acquire goes into the tank, the Mariners would be paying me a seven-figure salary! Ha.

It's bizarre though, no way around it. I don't think we should understate how tough an environment that is to hit in, but just like "Coors Field" alone can't be an excuse for Rockies pitchers, I don't think T-Mobile Park is the sole culprit here.

With regard to the past couple offseasons, I think some of the blame has to fall on ownership -- perhaps more than on the front office, even. The Mariners clearly haven't given Dipoto much latitude. He's had to make it work with a much finer level of payroll than he'd probably have expected after breaking the playoff drought. A lot of the players he's acquired (Wong, Polanco, Garver) have been coming off seasons where they were productive but also dealing with injuries.
The extent to which some of those injuries lingered into their Mariners seasons isn't clear. With regard to Jesse Winker, it absolutely impacted him, as he underwent neck and knee surgery following his lone year with the Mariners
3:21
But in some cases, the very reason the players in question were in the Mariners' surprisingly limited price range was because they had health concerns.
3:22
For what it's worth, by the way, Dipoto wasn't the GM when Seattle signed either Cruz or Beltre.
3:24
But he did get a resurgence out of Eugenio Suarez, he's gotten decent output from Randy Arozarena. The patience in J.P. Crawford paid off. Flipping Austin Nola for Ty France and Andres Munoz was a masterstroke, even if France eventually wilted like so many other M's hitters.

Dipoto has made his share of good moves.

On Robles, I don't think he needs to be a core piece. They paid him under $10MM for two years. It's the same thing, almost identical, to what the Royals did with Michael A. Taylor a couple years back. If he settles in as a fourth outfielder, that's a fine outcome.
Brave Fan
3:25
It is hard to watch Soler and Jackson. I really think AA lost his magic  by making that deal. Sell the time machine Alex 2021 is gone.
Steve Adams
3:26
Anthopoulos' willingness to take on huge gobs of cash has always been weird to me. He's clearly reluctant to part with his very best prospects when their stock is at its apex, but he's taken on huge dead money sums for Mark Melancon, Raisel Iglesias and Jorge Soler, and he basically spent more than $50MM  (when you consider luxury taxes) to buy Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners.
3:28
I don't think he's a bad GM, and the manner in which he's made an art of scouting/drafting/acquiring/developing Georgia kids who'll buy into a long-term vision and jump on extensions to form a core is outstanding. But the 2021 run always just kind of felt like he threw a bunch of stuff at the wall and was delighted that it basically all stuck. It's never seemed like a repeatable tactic. I think even Anthopoulos himself would admit he couldn't have imagined the quantity-over-quality approach yielding so much quality. Rosario, Soler, etc. all just caught fire simultaneously
Mark
3:28
If the Cardinals were to trade a LH hitter this offseason, which one would seem the most likely:  Gorman, Nootbaar, Donovan, or Burleson?  And what kind of return might they bring back (especially pitching)?
Steve Adams
3:30
Gorman seems likeliest, though I know of a few teams that have long loved Nootbaar's blend of walks, hard contact, speed, etc. I still think there's another level to be unlocked in Noot and think he might command more than the rest of the bunch.
I'm reading between the lines here, but this quote from John Mozeliak on Nolan Gorman from last month isn't exactly flattering:
"Obviously, it’s a game of production up here and at some point, you’ve got to consistently produce, or we have to find someone who can. I mean, that’s what it ultimately comes down to, and these are hard messages to hear. It can be frustrating, but this is what ends up defining you. With our offensive struggles this year, I think you can strictly look at the inability for consistent performance, day in and day out"
3:31
That's not a death sentence for Gorman's future with the org, but it's also a far cry from the boilerplate "We think Nolan is a big part of our future and still think he's going to be a fixture in this lineup for a long time" that you often see GMs dish out about their young players
otispdriftwood
3:32
Thanks for these Chats!! I can only move up in my league standings with more saves! Is M Strahm a guy I want for that? (I have managed to trade for and collect - E Diaz, A Diaz, T Kinley, M Kopech.) One more might do the trick! Any other names of 2nd in line guys that might grab a save -- I know it's all guess work..
Steve Adams
3:32
Strahm's a good one. It'll be worth watching who starts picking up saves for the Yankees if Holmes is out. I'd say Jake Cousins, but he's given up runs in three straight outings himself. Tyler Holton has picked up a few saves for the Tigers in the past couple weeks and has really good rate stats.
WhiteTrashRob
3:33
As a Twins fan, have you ever had the pleasure of meeting Trevor Plouffe?
Steve Adams
3:36
I've never directly interacted with Trevor, no. I did correspond some with Trevor May while he was doing some writing for MLBTR, chronicling his rehab process from Tommy John surgery, and he seems awesome.

Both those guys are just tons of fun and I think it's great that they've found their way into baseball media post-retirement.

Also, for what it's worth, I grew up a Twins fan and still hope they win, but more because I live in MN again and want to attend playoff games and because I know so many of my friends and family are living and dying with the team. I follow them more closely than other clubs if only because they're my hometown team, but my own fandom has kind of faded over the years. Between working at MLBTR and spending another eight years working at/contributing at MLB.com, I still love baseball but more from a broader perspective than through lens of passionately supporting any one team. If that makes sense.
3:37
I used to despise the Yankees, White Sox, Tigers -- all of the Twins' key rivals -- in childhood and my teen years. I don't have any negative feelings toward any team now, and I find myself more invested in individual players and storylines than just "Go Twins go" like I did when in my peak fandom from probably ages ... 6 to 23?
Ryan Red-leg
3:38
The Reds kept things interesting for a while, despite some big injuries, until their starting pitching got derailed by injuries. They're pitching staff looks good going into 2025, and they have an estimated payroll of 70 mil according to spotrac.  They were willing to spend last year, so I would think they would be willing to spend this year. Bringing Nick Martinez back would be great, but spinning signing 2 above average or better outfielders should be their plan.  Santander and Teoscar Hernandez would be fantastic (but one of the 2 would be more realistic).  What do you think the chances are of them signing guys like that?  Who else will be available that fits that role?
Steve Adams
3:41
Yeah, I wouldn't bank on them signing both Teoscar and Santander. I do think they're a likely candidate to pursue one of them. They clearly need some offensive help, though obviously a full year of Matt McLain can help. I was all aboard the Noelvi Marte train pre-suspension, but he's been a mess this year. I don't know what to make of him right now, but he doesn't look like the same guy.

Tyler O'Neill and Michael Conforto are another couple who could fill that corner outfield/middle of the order role. Jurickson Profar, but I'm still skeptical of him because the year-to-year output is just all over the map and he's probably going to be seeking three years again this winter.
Brian Tuohy
3:42
Do you see Astros moving Yordan to 1st or going after a free agent for 25?
Steve Adams
3:43
I think if they wanted to put him at first, they'd have done so instead of signing Abreu or done so after they released Abreu. I'd expect an outside acquisition. They liked Christian Walker prior to the deadline. Short-term deal with Paul Goldschmidt could be interesting.
Friedman & Gomes
3:43
Do we sign Kim, Adames or play Mookie at SS next year?
Steve Adams
3:46
I'd say one of Kim/Adames feels likelier than Betts going back to full-time SS work, but there'll be other options to consider on the trade market as well. Bo Bichette will draw the most attention, but there'll be other names that pop up. The Twins, Guardians and Reds have hordes of young infielders (not that you're getting Elly or Royce Lewis).
Peter Bendix
3:46
Is this my team for next year? 3B/1B/DH Burger; SS - Edwards; 2B/3B - Norby; 1B/DH - De los Santos; C- Ramirez, Fortes; OF- Stowers, Hill, Sanchez, Connie, UTL- Lopez/Serna. PIT- Sandy, Luzardo, Garret, Eury, Bellozo, Cabrera, Meyer and...? They are young,  probably some regression and mistakes are due, but they look fun to watch in paper. Who would you add to complement the Fish? Who is gonna be the skipper?
Steve Adams
3:50
Eh, I wouldn't be penciling Derek Hill into the mix long-term. I think a lineup like this:

1B: Burger
2B: Norby
SS: Edwards
3B: Low-cost FA/trade pickup
LF: Sanchez
CF: Pache + another low-cost pickup
RF: Stowers
DH: ?????

Seems reasonable enough to assume. I don't think Miami's going to add many win-now veterans.

The rotation with Alcantara, Garrett, Perez (eventually), Meyer, Cabrera and other in-house arms could be decent. I still think there's a chance Luzardo is moved this winter. In that case, he could get someone to add to that 3B/CF mix of question marks. If not, he'll obviously be in there alongside Sandy, Garrett and Meyer to begin the season, with the fifth spot up for grabs.
Load More Messages
Connecting…