Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat
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Travis Sawchik
12:00
Happy Monday, folks
Let's get started ....
12:01
Oh, and this is a GoT-free zone
Hot Dogs are Sandwiches
12:01
Should the Jays buy, sell, or retool for '18?
Travis Sawchik
12:02
We have the Jays with an 11 percent shot to reach the postseason http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx
Not great
And Blue Jays has BA's 20th-ranked system entering the year http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-organization-talent-ranking...
12:03
It's a tough division and it's going to become more competitive, at least at the top
I'd be selling
Justin
12:04
Would Cole get a similar return to what Quintana got for the Sox?
Travis Sawchik
12:04
Cole could command a solid price, I would think ... but Quintana had more value
12:05
Quintana has another year of control and he's been a more consistent performer
12:06
Quintana has 17.1 fWAR since 2013, Cole has produced 11.3
Matthew
12:06
Thoughts on Tyler Glasnow?
Travis Sawchik
12:06
I was present for Neal Huntington's press briefing Sunday. The Pirates believe Glasnow has made real improvement in Triple-A
12:07
Glasnow told reporters he is feeling his old self again, it might mean something or nothing ... considerable upside and volatility remain
Matt
12:07
Who's closing in WAS - Doo or Mad?
Travis Sawchik
12:08
My guess would be Doolittle
Hey, Nats might have a bullpen now, right?
Jeb
12:09
What would Cutch fetch back in a trade? Two top 100 prospects?
Travis Sawchik
12:10
In a market weak for position players? I kind of doubt it. Quintana fetched two top 100 prospects (Granted, one was top 10)
12:11
I think the Pirate would move Cutch at the right price, as they tried to do in the offseason, but if he's really back he might have more value to the Pirates in 2018 than the return they would receive
Jack
12:11
What are the Pirates going to actually do at the Deadline?
Travis Sawchik
12:12
I don't even think the Pirates know.
Neal Huntington
12:12
% chance I trade Cutch? % chance I trade Cole?
Travis Sawchik
12:12
38%, 31%
Charlie
12:13
The Brewers messed up not trading for Quintana and watching him go to the Cubs right? A cost controlled lefty with 3.5 years remaining made so much sense, and the White Sox wanted outfielders. Brinson-Ortiz is as good as Jimenez-Cease right? Brewers could have just kicked in one more good prospect (Corey Ray) and easily beat that deal? Feels like they are gonna really regret this chance.
Travis Sawchik
12:16
The Brewers look like they should be buyers at the deadline, some type of buyer, but how much of tomorrow do they want to trade? They still have a relatively playoff odd of 30.2% according to our forecasts. They've been linked to Sonny Gray, too, so they might get an impact arm yet. You would think Hahn would have let the Brewers know that Quintana might end up on the north side of Chicago. Maybe that's suggestive that the Brewers aren't quite ready to go all-in
MB
12:16
Will Treinen end up being the best player traded yesterday?
Travis Sawchik
12:16
His sinker is filthy. Has a chance to be the best pitch that was traded
Matt
12:17
% chance your % guesses are arbitrary and made up?
Travis Sawchik
12:17
I would say they were more intuitive than scientific
Oscar Obannon
12:18
Hey Travis - meant to get this in last week. I think the “everything went right for the 2016 Cubs” is a little unfair. Yes, their rotation stayed healthy and their defense was historic. And those are huge! They also lost two of their most important relievers before the playoffs, got nothing offensively from their $184M signing, and lost a middle of the order hitter three days into the season. I suppose you can argue losing Schwarber helped in some ways, but that team definitely faced their share of adversity.
Travis Sawchik
12:18
That's fair. A lot went right -- most importantly Game 7 -- but not everything.
Manny Machado
12:19
Am I going to be traded this month?  This winter?
Travis Sawchik
12:20
Orioles say they won't ... but Orioles are headed toward a significant rebuild, imo. He's a piece that could jumpstart such a process (assuming there's close to a zero chance he would return). No great answers or paths for the Orioles
Travis' Friend
12:20
Worried about Judge yet? Also, why are projection systems always so slow to react to a player's batting average? For example, high FB rate Lindor is probably a .275 hitter now, rather than a .290, and Judge is probably a .270 rather than a .259. Are projection systems too reliant on past track record than any changes a player might have made in their current profile?
Travis Sawchik
12:21
Hi, Friend
12:22
I kind of doubt projection systems buy too much into a small sample of batted-ball profile systems ... And the systems don't know when players are making adjustments and conscious efforts to change. They are imperfect, but useful tools
Ray
12:22
Chances Donaldson gets traded to the Red Sox or Yankees? Both need 3B and have top prospects.
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