JotCast | Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

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Travis Sawchik

12:04

Greetings and salutations

And happy Ohtani season

Hank

12:04

What kind of moves to you expect Anthopoulos to make in his first offseason with the Braves?

Travis Sawchik

12:05

AA has a reputation as an aggressive trader but I wonder if he will be a little more conservative early on as he does some inventory and gets acquainted with the Braves .... So maybe some smaller-type transactions

Creg

12:05

Where do you put the odds that Otani signs with an NL team? It seems like the teams, Otani's agent and probably he himself will recognize that it's better if he just DHs.

Travis Sawchik

12:06

I'd be surprised if he lands in the NL ... unless he really wants to play in the field on days he's not pitching. But i think he's going to land with an AL club

Greg

12:07

The argument in favor of Otani going to the AL West is interesting, though he'd fit in just as well with the Astros, but what do those teams do with Cruz, Choo and (especially) Pujols?

Travis Sawchik

12:08

Ohtani would fit well with the Astros or Yankees (or anywhere) but I think MLB -- and the legend of Ohtani -- benefits most by making a so-so team relevant. The more teams that are interesting, the better. Ohtani making a super team an uber team doesn't do much for me. That's like Durant joining a 73-win Warriors team in the NBA

12:09

Maybe I'm wrong, and I understand that we judge athletes to an extent (moreso in the NBA and NFL) by how many rings they have, but I think Ohtani provides greatest impact on a big-market, bubble team .... at least in the near term

Sir Robin the Not-Quite-So-Brave

12:10

Will Stanton be traded this week?

Travis Sawchik

12:10

I'm not even certain Stanton will be traded ... but I'd assume it would happen later on

Dave53

12:11

What if an athletic equipment maker (Nike?) offered Ohtani a massive endorsement deal ($50M?) conditioned on Ohtani playing in New York, Chicago, or Los Angeles? Does MLB have a right to disallow the deal? Would MLB investigate the six clubs in those markets for possible collusion? Or would MLB just shrug?

Travis Sawchik

12:12

I'm not 100 percent certain on this, endorsement deals are not an area I have much knowledge in, but I imagine MLB would just shrug.

This issue doesn't arise often ... so I'm not even sure MLB would have rise to written some sort of law pertaining to it

Ned Yost

12:13

Steamer has the Astros as the clear cut best team in baseball (3 more than the Dodgers). Should a team in their position, having just won the World Series, be more aggressive to maximize their current window, or less aggressive to prolong their window?

Travis Sawchik

12:14

I'm usually in the camp of prolonging a window. I don't think the Astros have to worry about their window closing soon

He Hate Me

12:15

Is MLB going to pay closer attention to the way the Dodgers abused the new 10-day DL to keep their rotation fresh or is this going to become a more widespread thing?

Travis Sawchik

12:16

In 2018, I suspect it's going to become more of a widespread thing. Is the 10-day DL a bad thing if it keeps arms fresher and healthier? I wonder what the MLBPA's thoughts are

Justin

12:16

What are the chances the Pirates trade Cole or Cutch this offseason? What could a return look like for either one?

Blackburn

12:16

What are the Pirates going to do this offseason? I'm not too excited about this team and the direction they're headed....

Big Hoss

12:16

Give me some positives for the Pirates moving forward.....don't see much here....

Travis Sawchik

12:17

According to our projections, the Pirates are an 82-80 team right now and I think that's about right. Just about everything went wrong last season and I expect some positive regression to the mean in 2018

My guess is they keep Cole and Cutch and try and compete in 2018, and if things go sour in the first three months then they start exploring deadline deals

12:20

The Pirates are one of only six clubs we project to have winning records in the NL at the moment, so I think it makes sense to try and compete. The positives? The staff may not have an ace but it has six arms projected at 2 wins or better, Rivero is back, Josh Bell showed growth, Marte and Polanco cannot be worse, McCutchen was a star-level bat in the second half ...

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:20

Local rumors are that the Brewers are targeting Jake Arrieta and they're estimating roughly a 4/$100M contract.

Does this feel like a wild overpay, and a bad move for a budding contender to you too?

Travis Sawchik

12:21

Dave and the crowd believe that's right about what Arrieta should be paid https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/

12:22

I think such a contract would be a worthwhile risk, especially for a club that could be on the contention bubble like the Brewers.

Jay

12:23

Saw someone mention this today - Neil Walker as a potential FA to Cleveland to play 1B if they do not re-sign Carlos Santana. Your thoughts?

Travis Sawchik

12:23

I'd rather take a flier on Morrison or Alonso

Bucn

12:23

Is Mitch Keller the next pitching stud for the Bucs?

Travis Sawchik

12:24

Keller looks pretty legit. I guess his changeup is showing strides this fall.

Blob Saget

12:24

This winter's random Orioles signing is...

Travis Sawchik

12:24

Who is the top DH on the market?

Sonny

12:25

To take the Braves GM job you would presumably have to know at least the broad strokes of the penalties coming right?

Travis Sawchik

12:25

Well, you know something is going to happen

He Hate Me

12:25

Final playoff pitching strategy thought for 2017: If managers are going to yank their starters after two times through the order, would it be useful to start the game with a reliever (call him the "opener") to get through the first 5-6 batters? The logic here is that when that's done, you bring in your starter, who starts his outing facing the bottom of the order. That way, when he reaches the 3rd time through the order, it's against the 7-8-9 guys (or pinch-hitter, who by definition is up for the first time and wasn't in the lineup because he didn't match up well with your starter) and you might get an extra inning out of him. Yes, you burn one reliever early but you're going to use most of your bullpen anyway, so why not put your starter in a position to face more than 18 hitters?

Travis Sawchik

12:26

I'm all for next-level bullpenning ... at least in the playoffs

Babe Lincoln

12:26

Big-market bubble team like the Mets???

Travis Sawchik

12:26

If only the Mets had a DH spot ...

Tristan

12:26

Personal question: if you had the choice to start a major league career anywhere, where would you choose, Travis?