JotCast | Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat | 11/27/2017

Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

powered by

Chat
Discussion Board

Travis Sawchik

9:45

How many pound have you added since we last spoke?

0-2 (35.3% | 65 votes)

2-4 (38% | 70 votes)

4-6 (6% | 11 votes)

6+ (7.1% | 13 votes)

Lost weight! (13.6% | 25 votes)

Total Votes: 184

9:51

The Most Important Question Ohtani is Asking Teams to Answer is...

An evaluation of Shohei�s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter (17.1% | 43 votes)

Player development, medical, training and player performance philosophies and capabilities (26.7% | 67 votes)

Re: Major League, Minor League, and Spring Training facilities (0% | 0 votes)

Resources for Shohei�s cultural assimilation (3.2% | 8 votes)

A detailed plan for integrating Shohei into the organization (31.9% | 80 votes)

Why the city and franchise are a desirable place to play (19.1% | 48 votes)

Relevant marketplace characteristics (2% | 5 votes)

Total Votes: 251

12:03

Greetings!

I put on about three pounds in six days

12:04

Not in the best shape of my life

Now let's talk about Ohtani ...

P

12:04

Is Toronto a top ten possible landing spot for Ohtani? Top 5?

Travis Sawchik

12:05

I think Toronto is a sleeper team for Ohtani . World-class city, large-ish market, high Asian-American (Asian-Canadian?) population and it's in the AL East ....

Bored Brad

12:06

Oh wise Travis, when will the market start moving? I need something more than a Doug Fister headline to keep me happy

Travis Sawchik

12:06

This has been a little surprising, I'm not surer what is going on ... Are teams waiting on Ohtani/Stanton?

12:07

Then again, there are quite a few non-tending clubs intent on rebuilding so that isn't helping

Contrarian Librarian

12:07

How far does Hosmer's market have to fall for him to become an attractive option?

Travis Sawchik

12:08

Good question. I've thought about it. I'm still not sure what Hosmer is or what he could become so I'd really want the years to come down.

12:09

For me, he'd have to fall to Edwin Encarnacion territory (3y/$60m-ish plus an option) to become a value

Is that harsh?

There are not a lot of obvious fits for Hosmer either

Q-Ball

12:10

So, we may as well talk about the Doug Fister signing, for lack of other news....what's your take? I know Dave Cameron loves it, based on the low guarantee and Fister's appearance on the bargain list

Travis Sawchik

12:11

I think it's a great deal for the Rangers. Low-risk, low-dollar, upside investment for a club in need of pitching.

It could be one of the best deals of the winter if he's really back from the brink as Jeff noted a few months back: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/doug-fister-is-all-the-way-back-from-t...

Jeremy

12:11

Hey Travis, could you see a push for teams to acquire 'elite coaching depth' as a new market ineffiency to exploit? It would seem to me that having talented coaches with strong communication skills at all levels of your system would be key to trying to unearth the next Chris Taylor - unexpected breakout type, and reap the surplus value rewards!

Travis Sawchik

12:12

Great question. Yes, I think think it is through coaching and player development where clubs can really extract value and there is more and more focus and resources there

Ben

12:13

In 2004 Barry Bonds had 45 HR and 41 SO. Will any current ballplayer ever be able to turn in a full season with more homers than strikeouts?

Travis Sawchik

12:13

That's going to be tough but a player with an Altuve-like skillset has a chance

@RationalMLBFan

12:13

Even though Thanksgiving is over, I *still* am thankful for these chats and the time that the Fangraphs staff spends interacting with their audience!

Travis Sawchik

12:14

Thanks so much for your readership!

Matt

12:14

What does Theo need to do , in order to close gap with LAD and possibly WAS? Front-line SP , in addition to depth?

Travis Sawchik

12:15

The Cubs need a front-line starter and bullpen help ... But they are built to be able to fill such voids in free agency (and perhaps via trade from surplus) with their mostly cheap position player core

I think Darvish should be a top target but I like Alex Cobb as a fall-back option

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

12:16

No love for those Spring Training facilities!

Travis Sawchik

12:16

None whatsoever

Mark

12:16

Ipad or Surface Pro?

Travis Sawchik

12:17

We have an iPad at the Sawchik residence, I've never used a surface pro. I'm suspicious of cpus that have multiple parts

Optimistic Rangers Fan

12:17

Should Texas be the favorite to land Ohtani? They have been in on him since he was 18 and are familiar with him, success with Darvish, Darvish still calls Texas home (the state not the team), a willingness to let him hit and pitch, clear need for him on both ends and he would be the face of this franchise once Beltre hangs up the cleats

Travis Sawchik

12:18

I think the Rangers are in the mix. Their history doesn't hurt and neither does the lack of a state income tax

Nivra

12:18

Should Pittsburgh pull a Houston/ChiSox rebuild?

Travis Sawchik

12:19

I think the Pirates have a shot to beat expectations in 2018 and should at least play out the first three months before blowing things up

Nivra

12:19

What was your favorite activity during Thanksgiving break?

Travis Sawchik

12:20

Hmmm. Perhaps a visit to La Colombe coffee in Philly (where my sister hosted the holiday)

Cold brew lattes on draft!

Matt

12:21

The trick to losing weight after Thanksgiving is to get really drunk after eating, then again on Friday. You eat a lot on Thanksgiving, but drink your meals for the next two days and there ya go.

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Capt'n Canada

-

4:34

-

Can something baseball related happen please? Ohtani or something!?

2

Reply

Spork

-

4:33

-

Is Maitan likely to be a good investment for how much of his team's bonus pool he'll take up?

0

Reply

P

-

4:34

-

There’s royalty in the blue jays nation now!

0

Reply

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

-

4:35

-

Hello Travis! I hope you had a great holiday. So you are really big into Hardball Dynasty. Sell me on why I should do that instead of Ottoneu going forward.

0

Reply

Hannah Hochevar

-

4:36

-

Surprised by Fister's low cost. Does this alter our offseason $ projections or is he an outlier (or injury)?

0

Reply

mike

-

4:36

-

who are the yankees going to target this offseason

0

Reply

Ben

-

4:39

-

If you were a manager and had to use Carlos Santana, Victor Martinez, Mike Napoli, John Jaso, Josh Donaldson, or Joe Mauer to catch a full game in 2018, which former catcher would you trust most behind the plate?

0

Reply

Grimace

-

4:39

-

Do you think the narrative that Ohtani will almost certainly go to an AL team due to DH has been way overplayed/ overvalued?

0

Reply

Canyonero Driver

-

4:41

-

Ohtani? Ohtani Ohtani Ohtani? Ohtani!

0

Reply

Ros

-

4:42

-

Stanton trade by Friday?

0

Reply

Jeremy

-

4:43

-

Hey Travis,

0

Reply

Ben

-

4:43

-

How long before someone breaks Randy Johnson's single season K/9 mark of 13.41 and Pedro's K% of 37.5%? Who do you think it will be?

0

Reply

AJ

-

4:46

-

Why is this offseasonn going so slowly? By this time last year, the Astros and Braves had made a handful of deals and the Dbacks and Mariners had made a pretty big trade. Are Ohtani and Stanton holding things up or is it just one of those things?

0

Reply

the pale king

-

4:47

-

do the dodgers add otani, stanton, or mostly stay put?

0

Reply

Zonk

-

4:47

-

A Doug Fister signing and a Ryon Healy trade. The "Hot Stove" is in a block of ice! I hope you are resting for a busy December....

0

Reply

the pale king

-

4:47

-

verdugo, alvarez, a-gon, and kazmir for stanton

0

Reply

John Mozeliak

-

4:48

-

What are the odds I sign Kevin Maitan this time around?

0

Reply

Greg P.

-

4:49

-

Happy Cyber Monday, Travis! What are you shopping for today?

0

Reply

resumeman

-

4:49

-

Does Steamer (and the other projections) include a park adjustment? So like, if Brandon Belt got traded to the Yankees, would his projected batting line improve significantly?

0

Reply

Guest

-

4:49

-

Do you find the lack of activity to date this off-season to be perplexing? I just don't understand how two players (Stanton, Ohtani) can completely freeze the FA market until their outcome is determined.

0

Reply

Brad

-

4:51

-

Rays - total rebuild or nibble again around edges? Window is now through last year or two of Archer's contract (where value can still be extracted from trade).

0

Reply

Jaff

-

4:51

-

How much would Joey Votto get if he was a free agent?

0

Reply

Nivra

-

4:51

-

What was your favorite Thanksgiving side dish?

0

Reply

Zonk

-

4:52

-

Jung Ho Kang was released by his DWL club after "hitting" .143 in 91 PAs. Rust from the long layoff? Are the Pirates possibly hoping he just stays in Korea at this point, even on a small commitment?

0

Reply

Nivra

-

4:52

-

Where do you think Stanton ends up and why?

0

Reply

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

-

4:52

-

Travis, I'm going to go get some ramen. Have fun with this chat and keep everyone in line until I'm back.

0

Reply

Matty P

-

4:53

-

Who is more suited for first base? Michael Brantley or Jason Kipnis?

0

Reply

John

-

4:54

-

Do you think teams will say negative things about other teams? Like Dipoto will just trade you anyway! Minnesota's winters are terrible! Look what Plaschke said about Darvish when he had a bad game!

0

Reply

Nivra

-

4:54

-

Where do you think Ohtani ends up and why?

0

Reply

Q-Ball

-

4:54

-

How aggressive should the Brewers be this offseason? Steamer projections really hate their lineup, and sees alot of regression. They've also been linked to Arrieta. What do you think?

0

Reply

Nivra

-

4:55

-

What was the most fun thing you did during the long weekend?

0

Reply

Nivra

-

4:55

-

How much time does the pitch clock end up shaving off the average game?

0

Reply

AHume92

-

4:55

-

Do you see an NL team possibly using Ohtani as an outfielder on his non-pitching days, or is that simply too risky? I know the Fighters backed off on doing that (to Ohtani's dismay, it seems).

0

Reply

Nivra

-

4:55

-

Should the SF Giants tank and rebuild like the Astros?

0

Reply

HappyFunBall

-

4:58

-

Hot stove? More like bitterly cold, frozen like a turkey on Sunday before Thanksgiving stove. Amirite?

0

Reply

The Underwearer

-

4:58

-

Will the Giants be forced to undertake a Tigers-level rebuild within five years?

0

Reply

Little T

-

5:00

-

Do you use R or SQL in your work for FanGraphs? Would it benefit a young baseball analyst like me to learn?

0

Reply

Zonk

-

5:03

-

In your opinion, what losing teams had the best year as an organization? Maybe the White Sox, who picked a direction and rebuilt their farm system with conviction? Who else?

0

Reply

Zonk

-

5:03

-

In your opinion, what organizations overall had the worst year, besides the Braves? The Orioles seem a bit adrift, am I right?

0

Reply

DTH

-

5:04

-

Am I being a Cubs homer here (entirely possible), or does the Braves punishment serve to highlight how relatively light the Cardinals hacking punishment was?

0

Reply

Sterling Malory Chris Archer

-

5:04

-

Re: Stanton to the Phils. What kind of prospects would the Fish want if the Phils take on the entire contract? Any top 5 or top 10?

0

Reply

Mike

-

5:04

-

which organization's Ohtani pitch would you most like to read?

0

Reply

Mike

-

5:04

-

Don't worry it's just water weight!

0

Reply

Zonk

-

5:04

-

Why do the Orioles keep trading off IFA slot money for peanuts? Do they really think the IFA market is a waste of time?

0

Reply

KW

-

5:04

-

Since most of the free agent market has been deadlocked by Stanton and Ohtani, will we see any significant signings before the Winter Meetings?

0

Reply

AHume92

-

5:04

-

If the Phillies were to go the Donaldson or Cole route, as you suggested, would Darvish make sense for them as well? Looking at their depth chart, their starting pitching behind Nola seems rather uninspiring.

0

Reply

Cam

-

5:04

-

Chances Cubs land Ohtani?

0

Reply

Young T

-

5:04

-

Also, will Otani end up with more career WAR than any other Japanese import sans Ichiro?

0

Reply

Young T

-

5:05

-

*Ohtani

0

Reply

Q-Ball

-

5:05

-

What teams shouldn't waste their time filling out the Ohtani questionaire? I mean, he's not going to Tampa or Cincy...right?

0

Reply

Silly Beane

-

5:06

-

Hi Travis, could you please walk over to the stove and turn up the burner?

0

Reply

Daniel

-

5:06

-

When and where is the winter meetings this year?

0

Reply

Mike

-

5:06

-

So once I read that Ohtani doesn't even care about financial information, I admit it made me feel like the Dodgers are looking better every day, since the 300k bonus is basically the only thing they have working against them, and a million factors working for them

0

Reply

Ryan

-

5:07

-

Which 1B signs first?

0

Reply

Brandon M

-

5:08

-

The Fister signing is exactly what a team like the Rangers should be doing, right?

0

Reply

Blob Saget

-

5:08

-

While everyone gained weight over Thanksgiving I got sick and lost five pounds.

0

Reply

Ryan

-

5:08

-

Who are your early Rookie of the Year candidates?

0

Reply

P

-

5:09

-

Will the political situation in the states versus Canada play any part in Ohtani’s decision? Or will it be a non-factor?

0

Reply

Blob Saget

-

5:09

-

Thanksgiving food is overrated anyway

0

Reply

Concrete melts off me

-

5:09

-

How many Gms do you think are on this chat?

0

Reply

AHume92

-

5:09

-

Probability that Stanton is a Marlin one year from now? It seems odd that his trade is being treated as some foregone conclusion. Was that an expectation for any new ownership group? How long (if they trade Stanton) until clearance of debt allows the Marlins to flex some financial muscle?

0

Reply

CT

-

5:09

-

Word came out recently, though unsurprisingly, that the Dodgers will try to move A. Gonzalez this offseason. While he's been their butter and eggs guy (thanks, Vin) through 2016, 2017 was a lost year and may signal the end of his true effectiveness, meaning they will likely have to eat the $21.5M owed to him in 2018. Does it make sense to move the face of the franchise (to at least the Hispanic population in LA) and all-around great clubhouse guy for nothing? Since you're paying him, why not hold onto him and those intangibles, allowing him to PH or fill in at 1B 1-2 times a week, moving Bellinger to the OF? Just seems unnecessary to offload a positive force on the club with no return.

0

Reply

Aaron

-

5:10

-

When was the last time a reader made you completely rethink your stance on a particular topic?

0

Reply

AHume92

-

5:10

-

That's generous. I'd hardly put Hosmer and Edwin in the same group. Hosmer seems a lot less desirable.

0

Reply

JJ

-

5:11

-

Assuming Stanton's not going to St. Louis, is Jose Abreu a Cardinal by the start of next season?

0

Reply

Daniel

-

5:11

-

Has the Ronald Acuna hype train gone so far that people's forgotten that Freddie Freeman still plays in Atlanta?

0

Reply

Luke Weaver

-

5:11

-

did you know i was the best pitcher in baseball from august until the end of the year by xfip?

0

Reply

Shuck Bowalter

-

5:11

-

I own a $13 Greg Bird in an Otto league. Various projections don't love him, but I think I have a bargain. Tell me why I'm right.

0

Reply

Brent

-

5:13

-

Who’s moving this offseason. Markakis or Kemp? Both?!? (Please be both) And Acuna is in RF regardless, correct?

0

Reply

Jay

-

5:14

-

Do you think that the entire Hot Stove season really won't get started in full until Ohtani signs? Usually there are one or a few players who have to sign to set the market in motion. Do you think he's holding the whole thing up right now?

0

Reply

AHume92

-

5:14

-

Would Toronto releasing Morales seem not entirely crazy? He has almost no value in today's game and has suddenly turned into a groundball machine. I can't imagine finding a taker in trade and he is clogging DH (blocking Ohtani?) on an aging roster.

0

Reply

Anon

-

5:15

-

Man, Fister's contract is really light. I thought the players sold out the kids so that players like Fister got more money in Free Agency. If this is a sign of things to come, the players really got hosed in the last round of negotiations.

0

Reply

BT

-

5:15

-

% chance the Phillies can be the ones to pull off the Stanton deal?

0

Reply

A cat

-

5:15

-

Is the ability to communicate the benefits of an analytics approach to players now as important as the old "players' manager" moniker?

0

Reply

Q-Ball

-

5:15

-

I found the Hot Stove. How do I turn this thing on?

0

Reply

Q-Ball

-

5:16

-

I found the Hot Stove. How do I turn this thing on? https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=...

0

Reply

Ham Bone

-

5:17

-

Re: Braves punishment ...Doesn't it give incentive for amateur to agree to illegal deals?

0

Reply

David

-

5:17

-

Is there much evidence - beyond commentators' assumptions - for the widespread belief that Ohtani wants to go to a large-ish market? He is leaving money on the table by coming to the U.S. now rather than in a couple years, suggesting that money isn't his primary motivation. I'll also argue that his biggest endorsement potential, if he's highly successful in MLB, is in Japan and not North America, also pushing against the idea that endorsement dollar potential in the local market will be a big driver of his decision. He's originally from a fairly small city in Iwate Prefecture. Maybe he's a person who wants to live in a huge metropolis, but that's certainly not the sort of place that he grew up.

0

Reply

LegallyEagle

-

5:17

-

Would it make sense for MLB to allow catchers/pitchers to have smart watches to enable signs-transmission that's less prone to sign-stealing? This would reduce mound-meetings.

0

Reply

Anon

-

5:17

-

I'm surprised the Japanese media hasn't ferreted out who Ohtani wants to go to.

0

Reply

Estevao

-

5:18

-

Hey Travis what do u think of my takes https://maximustake23.blogspot.com.br/

0

Reply

Colin

-

5:18

-

What would a deal look like between the Cubs and Braves with Teheran going to the Cubs?

0

Reply

STLCards

-

5:19

-

What middle of the order bat do you think St Louis will land this off season?

0

Reply

Risky

-

5:19

-

Thoughts on Joe Morgan's asinine letter?

0

Reply

CamdenWarehouse

-

5:19

-

What do you think of Hart's resignation? Do you think he had knowledge of what was going on? Your article about the amount of time he and Coppy talked made me suspicious.

0

Reply

Bored Brad

-

5:21

-

Thinking about following the NBA again to pass the winter months. Should I root for my regional team (Pistons) or just watch as a fan of the game in general? Should I watch the NBA at all?

0

Reply

STLAlan

-

5:21

-

If the Cardinals strike out on Stanton, what middle of the order bat could you see them landing this offseason?

0

Reply

Paul Allen

-

5:21

-

Who's window is already closed and should "blow it up" a la Cubs/Astros?

0

Reply

Estevao

-

5:22

-

https://maximustake23.blogspot.com.br/2017/11/a-winning-formula.html the Rockies path to the postseason

0

Reply

LegallyEagle

-

5:22

-

Isn't it a bad idea for any team to tie up the amount of money it would take to sign a player like Harper/Machado? The team is just paying at or above market value for WAR and likely taking on all the risk associated with possible injuries. Wouldn't it make more sense to diversify risk and sign multiple talents players?

0

Reply

LPFan

-

5:22

-

how about increasing series length to 5-6 games?

0

Reply

Anon

-

5:23

-

What's the worst (from owner's perspective) non-Pujols contract in baseball? From the players perspective, it's definitely Aaron Judge.

0

Reply

Mike

-

5:23

-

As a White Sox fan, I can tell you those White Sox fans have no idea what they're talking about.

0

Reply

Ryan

-

5:23

-

Should the braves prospects be eligible to be signed by teams from the year they were eligible? Seems unfair that those prospects are available now despite being signed in a previous year

0

Reply

Anon

-

5:23

-

How many people are in the chat?

0

Reply

He Hate Me

-

5:23

-

How much does the prospect return on a José Abreu trade change if it’s José Abreu + James Shields? [N.B. I think the Padres are paying about half of Shields's remaining 1 yr/$23m.]

0

Reply

Liver Failure

-

5:23

-

The name of Matt's Diet

0

Reply

AHume92

-

5:24

-

Which reliever will get the worst contract of the off-season? The obvious pick seems to be Holland (Savez?!), but I'd throw Cishek in there too, because of the length he might get.

0

Reply

A cat

-

5:24

-

Does LAD try to get under the CBT line or do they make the Stanton trade?

0

Reply

Paul Allen

-

5:24

-

Which team could be most likely the Yankees and only partially rebuild to get back to the kind of core of players to be competitive for years?

0

Reply

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Travis Sawchik hosts a chat