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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

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Travis Sawchik

1:01

Mike Moustakas, too

Ballpark that is

Josh

1:01

Where would you value Ohtani as an asset? Top 15 in the league?

Travis Sawchik

1:01

Given age and dollars, I'd have him top 5

1:03

I think he's right there with Correa, Trout, Lindor, Seager, Judge and Bryant in terms of trade value

Ben

1:03

If a player (like Ohtani) puts up 3 WAR as a pitcher and 3 WAR as a position player, is that any more or less valuable than a player worth 6 WAR as just a hitter (or pitcher)?

Travis Sawchik

1:04

More, I suspect, since he offers a club more roster flexibility and in-game creativity .

Daniel

1:04

How good is Austin Hays?

Travis Sawchik

1:04

I'm intrigued. Let's see what he does in 2018

He Hate Me

1:05

I guess I missed the KATOH projection for Ohtani. What's the likelihood of him becoming a 9-10 WAR/year player? Sounds like Kool-Aid to me.

Travis Sawchik

1:05

I think he projects more as a 5-7 WAR player in 2018

1:06

That's based upon projections of translated numbers

Brian

1:06

Hard to believe but there are now 1 year old babies that have never seen the Cubs win the world series. The Cubs FO needs to rectify this, and that right soon.

Travis Sawchik

1:06

Pressure is on!

1:07

I do think there is some pressure to keep up with the Dodgers short- and long-term

Anon

1:07

Is there any chance Ohtani is a Sidd Finch-esque prank being played on American baseball fans?

Travis Sawchik

1:07

Kind of wish we could wait to have an April 1 signing story

1:07

What’ll be the most interesting Otani fallout storyline? How Fantasy baseball deals with it? Details on teams pitches?

Travis Sawchik

1:08

Other than performance, how the team employs him

1:08

No offense to Yankees fans, but I’d hate to see Ohtani sign there. That’d have to be the worst case scenario for the league right?

Travis Sawchik

1:08

I've argued the best-case for the league is Ohtani on a bubble team to give the league another contender

1:08

What is your interest level in Michael Fulmer as an ace-level SP who could be traded? Do the injuries and the Mets history concern you?

Travis Sawchik

1:09

The injury is a concern, yeah

John

1:09

What would Ohtani's WAR be around if he were say a number 2 SP and top 5 DH?

Travis Sawchik

1:09

I think he'd be about a 6-win player

DH production was actually pretty poor in the AL last year

I Hate UCOR Class

1:10

Chances Ohtani ends up with NYY?

Travis Sawchik

1:10

34%

I am the walrus

1:10

Do you think Profar can someday be a league average player?

Travis Sawchik

1:10

I do. There's a potential come-back story here. ...He was once the No. 1 overall prospect. there's serious talent and makeup there

Sterling Malory Chris Archer

1:11

How worried should teams be about Ohtani’s injuries last year? No one seems to mention them.

Travis Sawchik

1:11

If this was a free-market, max contract situation, we'd hear more about them

He Hate Me

1:12

I think where the Ohtani train falls off the rails is when people start talking about him as a top-5 DH. Longenhagen has a 40-45 hit tool grade on him. That's not even starting-DH.

Travis Sawchik

1:12

Not sure about top 5, but I think he's a better hitter than that

MooseknuckleCurves

1:12

Would you keep Bradley, Berrios or Morton this year?

Travis Sawchik

1:13

Berrios

While I love the postseason version of Morton, he's had trouble staying on the mound

Berrios is already good and should become better

BJOGC

1:13

How is putting on 6lbs even possible over such a short amount of time? That's 21,000 calories over maintenance. It's either water weight or you guys are all disgusting

Travis Sawchik

1:13

Salt intake?

Connecting…

Capt'n Canada

4:34

Can something baseball related happen please? Ohtani or something!?

Spork

4:33

Is Maitan likely to be a good investment for how much of his team's bonus pool he'll take up?

4:34

There’s royalty in the blue jays nation now!

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

4:35

Hello Travis! I hope you had a great holiday. So you are really big into Hardball Dynasty. Sell me on why I should do that instead of Ottoneu going forward.

Hannah Hochevar

4:36

Surprised by Fister's low cost. Does this alter our offseason $ projections or is he an outlier (or injury)?

mike

4:36

who are the yankees going to target this offseason

Ben

4:39

If you were a manager and had to use Carlos Santana, Victor Martinez, Mike Napoli, John Jaso, Josh Donaldson, or Joe Mauer to catch a full game in 2018, which former catcher would you trust most behind the plate?

Grimace

4:39

Do you think the narrative that Ohtani will almost certainly go to an AL team due to DH has been way overplayed/ overvalued?

Canyonero Driver

4:41

Ohtani? Ohtani Ohtani Ohtani? Ohtani!

Ros

4:42

Stanton trade by Friday?

Jeremy

4:43

Hey Travis,

Ben

4:43

How long before someone breaks Randy Johnson's single season K/9 mark of 13.41 and Pedro's K% of 37.5%? Who do you think it will be?

4:46

Why is this offseasonn going so slowly? By this time last year, the Astros and Braves had made a handful of deals and the Dbacks and Mariners had made a pretty big trade. Are Ohtani and Stanton holding things up or is it just one of those things?

the pale king

4:47

do the dodgers add otani, stanton, or mostly stay put?

Zonk

4:47

A Doug Fister signing and a Ryon Healy trade. The "Hot Stove" is in a block of ice! I hope you are resting for a busy December....

the pale king

4:47

verdugo, alvarez, a-gon, and kazmir for stanton

John Mozeliak

4:48

What are the odds I sign Kevin Maitan this time around?

Greg P.

4:49

Happy Cyber Monday, Travis! What are you shopping for today?

resumeman

4:49

Does Steamer (and the other projections) include a park adjustment? So like, if Brandon Belt got traded to the Yankees, would his projected batting line improve significantly?

Guest

4:49

Do you find the lack of activity to date this off-season to be perplexing? I just don't understand how two players (Stanton, Ohtani) can completely freeze the FA market until their outcome is determined.

Brad

4:51

Rays - total rebuild or nibble again around edges? Window is now through last year or two of Archer's contract (where value can still be extracted from trade).

Jaff

4:51

How much would Joey Votto get if he was a free agent?

Nivra

4:51

What was your favorite Thanksgiving side dish?

Zonk

4:52

Jung Ho Kang was released by his DWL club after "hitting" .143 in 91 PAs. Rust from the long layoff? Are the Pirates possibly hoping he just stays in Korea at this point, even on a small commitment?

Nivra

4:52

Where do you think Stanton ends up and why?

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

4:52

Travis, I'm going to go get some ramen. Have fun with this chat and keep everyone in line until I'm back.

Matty P

4:53

Who is more suited for first base? Michael Brantley or Jason Kipnis?

John

4:54

Do you think teams will say negative things about other teams? Like Dipoto will just trade you anyway! Minnesota's winters are terrible! Look what Plaschke said about Darvish when he had a bad game!

Nivra

4:54

Where do you think Ohtani ends up and why?

Q-Ball

4:54

How aggressive should the Brewers be this offseason? Steamer projections really hate their lineup, and sees alot of regression. They've also been linked to Arrieta. What do you think?

Nivra

4:55

What was the most fun thing you did during the long weekend?

Nivra

4:55

How much time does the pitch clock end up shaving off the average game?

AHume92

4:55

Do you see an NL team possibly using Ohtani as an outfielder on his non-pitching days, or is that simply too risky? I know the Fighters backed off on doing that (to Ohtani's dismay, it seems).

Nivra

4:55

Should the SF Giants tank and rebuild like the Astros?

HappyFunBall

4:58

Hot stove? More like bitterly cold, frozen like a turkey on Sunday before Thanksgiving stove. Amirite?

The Underwearer

4:58

Will the Giants be forced to undertake a Tigers-level rebuild within five years?

Little T

5:00

Do you use R or SQL in your work for FanGraphs? Would it benefit a young baseball analyst like me to learn?

Zonk

5:03

In your opinion, what losing teams had the best year as an organization? Maybe the White Sox, who picked a direction and rebuilt their farm system with conviction? Who else?

Zonk

5:03

In your opinion, what organizations overall had the worst year, besides the Braves? The Orioles seem a bit adrift, am I right?

DTH

5:04

Am I being a Cubs homer here (entirely possible), or does the Braves punishment serve to highlight how relatively light the Cardinals hacking punishment was?

Sterling Malory Chris Archer

5:04

Re: Stanton to the Phils. What kind of prospects would the Fish want if the Phils take on the entire contract? Any top 5 or top 10?

Mike

5:04

which organization's Ohtani pitch would you most like to read?

Mike

5:04

Don't worry it's just water weight!

Zonk

5:04

Why do the Orioles keep trading off IFA slot money for peanuts? Do they really think the IFA market is a waste of time?

5:04

Since most of the free agent market has been deadlocked by Stanton and Ohtani, will we see any significant signings before the Winter Meetings?

AHume92

5:04

If the Phillies were to go the Donaldson or Cole route, as you suggested, would Darvish make sense for them as well? Looking at their depth chart, their starting pitching behind Nola seems rather uninspiring.

Cam

5:04

Chances Cubs land Ohtani?

Young T

5:04

Also, will Otani end up with more career WAR than any other Japanese import sans Ichiro?

Young T

5:05

*Ohtani

Q-Ball

5:05

What teams shouldn't waste their time filling out the Ohtani questionaire? I mean, he's not going to Tampa or Cincy...right?

Silly Beane

5:06

Hi Travis, could you please walk over to the stove and turn up the burner?

Daniel

5:06

When and where is the winter meetings this year?

Mike

5:06

So once I read that Ohtani doesn't even care about financial information, I admit it made me feel like the Dodgers are looking better every day, since the 300k bonus is basically the only thing they have working against them, and a million factors working for them

Ryan

5:07

Which 1B signs first?

Brandon M

5:08

The Fister signing is exactly what a team like the Rangers should be doing, right?

Blob Saget

5:08

While everyone gained weight over Thanksgiving I got sick and lost five pounds.

Ryan

5:08

Who are your early Rookie of the Year candidates?

5:09

Will the political situation in the states versus Canada play any part in Ohtani’s decision? Or will it be a non-factor?

Blob Saget

5:09

Thanksgiving food is overrated anyway

Concrete melts off me

5:09

How many Gms do you think are on this chat?

AHume92

5:09

Probability that Stanton is a Marlin one year from now? It seems odd that his trade is being treated as some foregone conclusion. Was that an expectation for any new ownership group? How long (if they trade Stanton) until clearance of debt allows the Marlins to flex some financial muscle?

5:09

Word came out recently, though unsurprisingly, that the Dodgers will try to move A. Gonzalez this offseason. While he's been their butter and eggs guy (thanks, Vin) through 2016, 2017 was a lost year and may signal the end of his true effectiveness, meaning they will likely have to eat the $21.5M owed to him in 2018. Does it make sense to move the face of the franchise (to at least the Hispanic population in LA) and all-around great clubhouse guy for nothing? Since you're paying him, why not hold onto him and those intangibles, allowing him to PH or fill in at 1B 1-2 times a week, moving Bellinger to the OF? Just seems unnecessary to offload a positive force on the club with no return.

Aaron

5:10

When was the last time a reader made you completely rethink your stance on a particular topic?

AHume92

5:10

That's generous. I'd hardly put Hosmer and Edwin in the same group. Hosmer seems a lot less desirable.

5:11

Assuming Stanton's not going to St. Louis, is Jose Abreu a Cardinal by the start of next season?

Daniel

5:11

Has the Ronald Acuna hype train gone so far that people's forgotten that Freddie Freeman still plays in Atlanta?

Luke Weaver

5:11

did you know i was the best pitcher in baseball from august until the end of the year by xfip?

Shuck Bowalter

5:11

I own a $13 Greg Bird in an Otto league. Various projections don't love him, but I think I have a bargain. Tell me why I'm right.

Brent

5:13

Who’s moving this offseason. Markakis or Kemp? Both?!? (Please be both) And Acuna is in RF regardless, correct?

Jay

5:14

Do you think that the entire Hot Stove season really won't get started in full until Ohtani signs? Usually there are one or a few players who have to sign to set the market in motion. Do you think he's holding the whole thing up right now?

AHume92

5:14

Would Toronto releasing Morales seem not entirely crazy? He has almost no value in today's game and has suddenly turned into a groundball machine. I can't imagine finding a taker in trade and he is clogging DH (blocking Ohtani?) on an aging roster.

Anon

5:15

Man, Fister's contract is really light. I thought the players sold out the kids so that players like Fister got more money in Free Agency. If this is a sign of things to come, the players really got hosed in the last round of negotiations.

5:15

% chance the Phillies can be the ones to pull off the Stanton deal?

A cat

5:15

Is the ability to communicate the benefits of an analytics approach to players now as important as the old "players' manager" moniker?

Q-Ball

5:15

I found the Hot Stove. How do I turn this thing on?

Q-Ball

5:16

I found the Hot Stove. How do I turn this thing on? https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=...

Ham Bone

5:17

Re: Braves punishment ...Doesn't it give incentive for amateur to agree to illegal deals?

David

5:17

Is there much evidence - beyond commentators' assumptions - for the widespread belief that Ohtani wants to go to a large-ish market? He is leaving money on the table by coming to the U.S. now rather than in a couple years, suggesting that money isn't his primary motivation. I'll also argue that his biggest endorsement potential, if he's highly successful in MLB, is in Japan and not North America, also pushing against the idea that endorsement dollar potential in the local market will be a big driver of his decision. He's originally from a fairly small city in Iwate Prefecture. Maybe he's a person who wants to live in a huge metropolis, but that's certainly not the sort of place that he grew up.

LegallyEagle

5:17

Would it make sense for MLB to allow catchers/pitchers to have smart watches to enable signs-transmission that's less prone to sign-stealing? This would reduce mound-meetings.

Anon

5:17

I'm surprised the Japanese media hasn't ferreted out who Ohtani wants to go to.

Estevao

5:18

Hey Travis what do u think of my takes https://maximustake23.blogspot.com.br/

Colin

5:18

What would a deal look like between the Cubs and Braves with Teheran going to the Cubs?

STLCards

5:19

What middle of the order bat do you think St Louis will land this off season?

Risky

5:19

Thoughts on Joe Morgan's asinine letter?

CamdenWarehouse

5:19

What do you think of Hart's resignation? Do you think he had knowledge of what was going on? Your article about the amount of time he and Coppy talked made me suspicious.

Bored Brad

5:21

Thinking about following the NBA again to pass the winter months. Should I root for my regional team (Pistons) or just watch as a fan of the game in general? Should I watch the NBA at all?

STLAlan

5:21

If the Cardinals strike out on Stanton, what middle of the order bat could you see them landing this offseason?

Paul Allen

5:21

Who's window is already closed and should "blow it up" a la Cubs/Astros?

Estevao

5:22

https://maximustake23.blogspot.com.br/2017/11/a-winning-formula.html the Rockies path to the postseason

LegallyEagle

5:22

Isn't it a bad idea for any team to tie up the amount of money it would take to sign a player like Harper/Machado? The team is just paying at or above market value for WAR and likely taking on all the risk associated with possible injuries. Wouldn't it make more sense to diversify risk and sign multiple talents players?

LPFan

5:22

how about increasing series length to 5-6 games?

Anon

5:23

What's the worst (from owner's perspective) non-Pujols contract in baseball? From the players perspective, it's definitely Aaron Judge.

Mike

5:23

As a White Sox fan, I can tell you those White Sox fans have no idea what they're talking about.

Ryan

5:23

Should the braves prospects be eligible to be signed by teams from the year they were eligible? Seems unfair that those prospects are available now despite being signed in a previous year

Anon

5:23

How many people are in the chat?

He Hate Me

5:23

How much does the prospect return on a José Abreu trade change if it’s José Abreu + James Shields? [N.B. I think the Padres are paying about half of Shields's remaining 1 yr/$23m.]

Liver Failure

5:23

The name of Matt's Diet

AHume92

5:24

Which reliever will get the worst contract of the off-season? The obvious pick seems to be Holland (Savez?!), but I'd throw Cishek in there too, because of the length he might get.

A cat

5:24

Does LAD try to get under the CBT line or do they make the Stanton trade?

Paul Allen

5:24

Which team could be most likely the Yankees and only partially rebuild to get back to the kind of core of players to be competitive for years?

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