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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat
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Travis Sawchik
12:02
Hi
12:03
The offseason is technically over ... but yet it warmed up over the weekend
Go figure!
Let's talk about it ...
Q-Ball
12:03
Chris Tillman back to the O's felt inevitable, and turns out it was...
Joe
12:04
The biggest news of the last week, obviously, is that Chris Tillman just signed with Baltimore. What's the chance he rebounds to be something better than a complete disaster?
Travis Sawchik
12:05
DC is calling for a 5.25 ERA and I don't see a lot of reason to be optimistic
12:06
Tough being an extreme fly-ball guy in this day and age, and in Camden Yards and the AL East , especially if the stuff has ticked down (as it has)
Gerbil King
12:06
Would a 9 man BP be an absolutely crazy idea for the Phillies to try with their lack of starters who go more than 5-6 innings?
Travis Sawchik
12:07
Yes
If we had 27-man rosters then I could see it
Fat Matt
12:07
I ended up working on a company holiday.  It's nice to not have to be secretive about following FG chats since nobody can see what I'm doing
Travis Sawchik
12:07
Are you alone in a cubicle, Matt?
Zonk
12:08
Find a home for Mike Moustakas.  Where can he go?  The Moose is Loose!
Travis Sawchik
12:08
There is no obvious fit for poor Moose. Atlanta makes some sense, Philly if they doubt Franco (but I guess he gets another look) ...
12:09
Cozart and Frazier took two available openings, Yankees want to stay under the cap, sorry, tax threshold
KC!
Secret Moose
12:09
How quickly can the Tampa Bay Rays become the new Montreal Expos or Portland Somethings?
Travis Sawchik
12:10
Didn't the Rays just decide upon their new stadium site in Ybor city?
I hate to see teams relocated but the Rays and Tampa need to figure out this stadium deal
Grant
12:11
Thoughts on Bregman exceeded expectations this year?
Travis Sawchik
12:11
I think his second half is a harbinger of big things to come... so quick inside, Crawford boxes, love it
Stars and Scrubs
12:12
We have seen (most of) the best non-JDM players and relievers sign, and some lower tier players. Will the remaining QO free agents likely end up being the last to sign?
Travis Sawchik
12:12
The QO is not helping players like Moustakas, for sure, even if a first-rounder is no longer attached. It's another element working against some players
Erik
12:12
What do you make of the structure of the Hosmer deal? Frontloading the money with an opt-out and a lower-AAV second section seems extraordinarily sensible and fair to me. Could you see some of the big deals next offseason following that blueprint?
Travis Sawchik
12:14
The back-end seems like an insurance policy for Hosmer in case he continues being the player he has been since 2014, when he's been 0.1 fWAR better than Lucas Duda  ... If he makes a swing chance and improves his overall production and consistency this is a five-year deal
12:15
But in a vacuum, I do like the creative nature of the deal ... and paying more for a player's peak than his decline
Dominic
12:15
Do you know of a good source that has data about international amateur signings?  Preferably one that can be sorted by year or by team.
Travis Sawchik
12:15
Data? Or just any information? Baseball America has the best signings database
Steve Diego
12:15
Can you tell me if I'm being a delusional Padres fan? I think signing Hosmer to a 5/100 deal is a pretty good deal. At $9M/WAR, he only has to average +2.2 WAR per season, which is reasonable given his ~.350 xwOBA. Then he either opts out, well after Urias and Tatis have come up, or doesn't and we're on the hook for $13M a year, which is less than guys like Beltran and Cargo got to not contribute to playoff teams last year. Also, while Myers' COF defensive is a question mark, we now have a ton of major league ready depth (even if it's quantity over quality) that we can use to fill other holes without touching our top prospects. All in all, we signed a good player to a reasonable contract and kept our minor league bounty untouched.
Travis Sawchik
12:17
First, despite the weather, SD might not be the easiest place to recruit to given the general lack of winning in an often forgotten baseball market, and the Padres have money to spend ....
So they got someone to take it
12:18
And the Hosmer deal has upside if he can become a more consistent player -- and/or -- learns to improve his batted-ball profile
So it's not the worst FA deal even, particularly given his age
12:19
But I hate to make an eight-year commitment to a 1B who ranks 12th in WAR since 2014 at his position and who has about the same career launch angle as Dee Gordon
12:20
Hosmer was Dave Cameron's No. 1 free agent landmine ... and the Padres still signed him for more dollars than predicted. I feel like Boras probably executed another end around the front office
He Hate Me
12:20
Several teams have broached the subject of the 6-man rotation but would piggy-backing at the 5th starter spot be a better idea, to see if one guy can win the job outright? Also it doesn’t force the ace to make fewer starts. Would it make sense for a guy like Ohtani (or really any Japanese import) to piggy-back in April/May in order to ease into a 5-day schedule? To me, throwing 3 guys for 3 IP each might be even better, as one or more of them could be available for an inning or two between "starts" and you get three chances to unearth a breakout guy instead of two. Thoughts?
Travis Sawchik
12:21
I think we'll see more teams experiment with piggy-back starters. I think the overall trend is going to be more rest, fewer innings
Jimbo
12:21
Does the humidor news have an impact on JD Martinez's signing? Do you think he takes a deal with Boston?
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