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Week 4 - Sunday Chat
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AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:45
Hello, welcome to our Week 4 NFL Survivor Chat.
11:46
Get any questions in, just remember they may not show up right away if I have a backlog, as I post them once I am ready to answer.
So far today, we've got the news that Deshaun Watson is out, though that shouldn't have a big impact on survivor. The line has shifted to the Ravens now being favored but still by less than a field goal.
11:47
The most notable events are the Chargers now being favored by 7 against the Raiders, with the news that Jimmy Garoppolo will miss.
11:48
That is being countered by the Chargers rising popularity, as they are up to 9% and may continue to climb. Our models are lower on the Chargers.
And the Vikings continue to rise, from -3 earlier in the week to now -5, which is line movement in the direction of our model leans all week.
B
11:48
What do you think about the Chargers and Ravens today with rookies QB's starting for the opposing teams today?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:49
I think the Ravens are still too risky. On the road, the Browns were the favorite, and it's still a team with injuries playing a strong defense.
11:50
The Chargers, I think it's interesting that the the Raiders may have the most prominent one (Garoppolo) but the Chargers have a lot of key injuries that create uncertainty with the favorite. No starting center (which is an often undervalued position to lose in betting markets) no Derwin James or Bosa, no Ekeler, Williams, etc
Garoppolo has thrown 6 picks, O'Connell is a big unknown, uncertainty there.
Greg K
11:51
I’m in a pool with 32 people left.   I already lost 1of 2 picks and know a lot of people are going with 49’s.   I was thinking of going with Chiefs.  Any ideas?   We can use the same team as much as we can.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:52
If you can go with any team, then you have to just take guesses on how the pick popularity will go. Let me run some quick numbers on where I think the break-even point should be in a 3-way contest between picking 49ers/Eagles/Chiefs only.
11:59
I do think you might consider it if you think over 40% of the pool will be on SF, since the chiefs and eagles have decently high win odds also. There's a good chance that all win (over 51%) but you at least leave open the possibility of a big upset wipeout.
or, I should say, over 50%, if you think the pick rate of Chiefs and Eagles individually will be less than 49ers.
Pete
11:59
Hi Jason - Happy Week 4!  Minnesota looks to be on the rise ...do you think there is concern about PHI or SF getting upset today by WSH or ARI?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:00
SF would take a big upset, the type of game where they just turn the ball over or the Cardinals get some defensive or special teams big plays. Market has it at around 12% on Cardinals and that's about right.
12:01
Eagles playing Washington, the market is accounting for the division risk there, it's the type of game where the home field advantage doesn't matter much, and we've seen the road teams in this series play well. Washington also may have more upside, even though the offense is inconsistent.
AP
12:01
Don't trust Cousins in the road
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:05
since 2019, the Vikings are 3-2 on the road when favored by between 4 and 7 (3-2 ATS)  and 3-4 at home (1-6 ATS).

The market is accounting for where the game is played, but I'm not sure he's worse specifically because of a road game, once accounting for that.
Pete
12:05
My PG models keep fluctuating between MIN and PHI & SF - it's tempting to try and save some FV & be contrarian but like AP mentioned MIN feels pretty risky.  That being said look at what happened w JAX last week...BAL too.
Guess Any Given Sunday rings true!
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:06
Yeah, I think it boils down to some personal decisions there on the margins. Each pick has different rationales. I am going to have some Minnesota and a mix of all. Eagles make most sense now on pools that probably don't get to late and this is a decent spot. Vikings make most sense in really large pools, especially those that require late picks. 49ers are safest but have a lot of value in latter half of the season and could be a hammer late.
12:08
I get the Vikings' hesitancy, but I do think playing them relative to those pushing up the Chargers and picking the Cowboys is a decent game play. They have the lowest future value of those three and they aren't any riskier.

Now, if you don't want to drop to that risk level, that's a different question.
Dave
12:08
This isn’t a question per se, but I thought it was noteworthy that SF was 48% picked in Circa this week
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:09
Yes, that one surprised me in some ways. I have them as by far the most valuable future pick in Circa, and I'll make some predictions. The winning entries will be over-represented with those that got through this week without using SF.
12:10
It appears to me that a lot of people have decided they are saving the Eagles for Christmas (which in turns makes them a less valuable pick, and increases the value of still having KC and SF then)
12:11
Because the Eagles were the most available of the Big Three this week, and were also below their public pick rate in Circa.
Ander
12:11
Whats ur thoughts on playing the rams or Denver to not burn all 49ers play
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:13
I think the Rams are too risky of a pick. If you save SF, it's so you can use them in a future week rather than taking a risky pick in the 60-65% range. But Rams are even below that, and that's why we show their EV at 0.74.

As for Denver, the thesis makes sense in some really large pools since they likely have zero future value, if you can get them through. But man, that game is another that would make me sick. The resistible force versus the moveable object.
12:14
Denver's EV is 0.81, which makes them a possibility I think only in deep, multi-pick type pools where you know you will need to pick a lot of teams by the end of the year to win.
12:15
Looks like the Jags are kneeling it out to win 23-7. A week after they knocked a bunch of people out.
12:18
It doesn't look like we have gotten any more notable changes in last half hour. Cowboys now at -6, Chargers at -7, Vikings at -5 among that next tier of options, with the Saints -4 as the only other team favored by more than a field goal.
12:23
there was a question earlier about the rookie QBs. Back in 2019, I wrote about first starts. Here were some of the notes then:

  • Since 2009, games involving first-time starting QBs who were not drafted in the first round, and weren’t their team’s opening game starter entering the year, do show higher variance in terms of margin against the spread. In other words, the final score margin is more likely to be way off the point spread (in either direction) than other games that don’t meet this criteria.
  • The teams with first-time starters did not win as many games as expected, despite that higher variance and despite mostly being underdogs. That is a counter-intuitive result.
  • This overall underperformance in terms of win percentage is driven by an especially poor record in close games. That could be just bad luck that will even out in time, but a plausible causation theory also exists, since first-time starters lack NFL game experience.
doesn't have data from the last three seasons in that.
12:24
We've got about 5 minutes left, and I'll leave the chat open until then, so get any final questions in.
Furman
12:26
Vikings or 49ers ... 401 in pool ... I have only 1 entry remaining.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:27
I think it would take guts and a willingness to be done now at a higher rate, but I'm taking the Vikings in this situation. In fact, that's what I am doing in a slightly larger pool where I am down to one, and will have a multi-pick week late.
12:28
and I'm hoping the 49ers are really popular and lots of entries use them up in this pool
Furman
12:28
Vikings it is!!!  Thanks!
Ander
12:30
1451 lest it’s multi pick week in week 4 what’s the best way to play this? Save Niners or burn my 2 picks on them is Vikings and eagles play also?
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