You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Week 5 - Sunday Chat
powered byJotCast
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:46
Welcome to the Week 5 Survivor chat. Miami has moved to a 13-point favorite, Detroit has dropped to a 9-point favorite, and Miami's outlook has improved with those odds shifts. Baltimore is also up to a 4.5-point favorite this morning against Pittsburgh, Kenny Pickett is expected to start for Steelers.
11:49
We are also keeping an eye on Buffalo, who is currently down 11-7 against the Jags in the late 3rd quarter. About 4% of public picks are on Buffalo, we don't have any recommendations out to use the Bills.
Soh
11:49
Just debating between these options, because I've seen a lot of people on Pitt +4.5. Who do we like more today... the Ravens or the Falcons? Tough to lay on Atlanta, but market has been moving in their direction
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:51
I honestly don't know what to make of that Atlanta-Houston game. Houston was not expected to be good, and the preseason market priors are still influencing the line.
11:53
But they have a young QB who is clearly playing better than expected for a rookie, a new coach, and may just be better than expected. Atlanta was expected to make the jump but their QB has looked bad. To the extent the priors have baked in "rookie QB-bad" and "second year QB good" those factors may still be influencing a line. I guess I have no confidence that Atlanta is better than Houston.
Ander
11:53
Tough lost with Washington, I have 1 pick left and about 1.1k entries left the model is saying to take Eagles but I feel it’s risky, I don’t like playing with the public but it feels like Miami is the play just to survive this week
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:54
I think Miami is a fine pick, Philadelphia still has late value in Weeks 16 and 17 in a large pool.
I guess think about how you want to play next week, as Miami against Carolina is an immediate option there.
Justin
11:54
So you guys had me 2 Washington, 1 PHI, 1 BAL.  I only took 1 Was.  Would you use that extra pick on Mia or Det?  There's NFW I can do another PHI or BAL.  I have over 4000 people in my pool.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:55
I would probably go Miami based on market odds and Detroit having future value. I'm honestly surprised the market hasn't reacted more to the Amon-Ra St. Brown injury. I think he's fairly important to what they do and they struggled a bit on offense last year when he wasn't 100% or sitting out.
Soh
11:56
Yeah I honestly don't have any read on the game either, I was hoping you did! I guess the Ravens are my alternative, hoping very much for both Miami and Detroit to lose! But taking some Miami to advance with the public, would be absolutely stunned if they did somehow... lose.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:57
Yeah, I would be stunned to see Miami lose but it's football. It would take a game with turnovers for the Dolphins and some big plays for the Giants. Dolphins probably don't lose if the turnover factor is close to zero.
Alan
11:57
I believe is smart to lay off Miami & Detroit and save them for later on in the season.  Want to save Baltimore & Philadelphia also. Thinking outside the box, New England, Cincinnati, Green Bay. Is that way too risky in a large pool?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:59
Cincinnati makes the most sense on market odds. I think you can justify taking the swing when your odds are low anyway. There's like a 4% disaster scenario where nearly all of a big pool gets wiped this week. Buffalo potentially contributing a little to that as well, as Jags are in scoring range again to start the 4th and they will need a comeback.
12:00
and when I say your odds are low anyway, I'm referring to odds overall of cashing in the contest.
12:01
I jinxed the Jags by the way, Lawrence fumbled in field goal range as I was typing.
Bf
12:02
What do you think of Houston after Atlanta flying back from London this week?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:04
I think that's a relatively unknown factor. I think there were a couple of games last year that teams played right after a trip to London rather than get a bye, Minnesota win and Green Bay loss I believe.

I just think that's a complete wide open game with a whole host of outcomes. If Texans are "actually good" then we might get to pick them in the future. This seems like the type of game that will tell us more after their last two results, and playing with a little higher expectations.
Soh
12:05
Ok my pool locks at 12EST. So here are my numbers if you're interested. 82% on DET and MIA, Detroit actually more popular in mine. I'm one of 3 people on Baltimore. And if both Detroit and Miami lose, I'll have 3/16 entries remaining (assuming those other selections advance) WOW
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:06
yes, that's the benefit of playing on a true contrarian. Washington's loss actually contributes to that as only Detroit and Miami have any popularity in a typical pool among teams that could advance.
Soh
12:08
Excited to see how it plays out! Thanks for the analysis this week Jason! Loved the strategy
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:09
I am excited to have a survivor pick start a game by not throwing a pick six or fall behind right away.
12:11
I'm gonna leave chat open for a few more minutes, then head out. Last call for any questions today.
12:14
okay thanks everyone. Don't let this be the day Kenny Pickett decides to play like a good QB.
Connecting…