JotCast | Weekly College Baseball Chat: March 18

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Weekly College Baseball Chat: March 18

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Confused Hog Fan

1:31

Hopefully this will get sorted out down in Austin this week, but how do you justify keeping a 7-loss Longhorns team ahead of 2-loss SEC teams like Auburn and Arkansas. At what point does "you are what your record says you are" outweigh the eye test?

Aaron Fitt

1:31

Strength of schedule, sir. Texas has played a much, much, much harder schedule than Auburn and Arkansas -- and the Horns have two legitimate premium series wins, the sweep over LSU and two of three from Texas Tech. That blows away anything Arkansas or Auburn has done. It's not about the eye test in this case, it's all about the substance of the resumé.

1:32

And at this point, if the committee was putting together its field of 64, I'd have to think Texas would be seeded higher than Auburn and Arkansas, because those high-end wins carry a lot of weight.

Tom

1:32

Who do you think will win the WCC? LMU and USD look like the 2 best teams right now!

Kendall Rogers

1:34

Tom -- Based on Aaron's reports from the Seattle Baseball Showcase, my money would be on San Diego to win that league, but heck, don't sleep on Gonzaga, who took A&M to the wire and took two of three from Southern Miss over in Hattiesburg. I also liked Pepperdine's bats when I saw it against Stanford earlier this season, and the Waves broke out in the final two games against the Toreros. St. Mary's is another club I could easily see winning the league. That league seems to be wide open.

Aaron Fitt

1:34

Yeah... I actually like USD and Saint Mary’s the best in that league, but as always it’s going to be a battle royale, because there are things to like about USF, LMU, Gonzaga, BYU and Pepperdine too. It really is wide open.

Carson

1:35

Any concerns about the Miami starting rotation after this weekend? McMahon looked off and Van Belle got rocked. I know McMahon will bounce back, but feel BVB is limited. Think Cecconi moving to the Sunday role is best for this team moving forward?

Aaron Fitt

1:35

I’m not concerned about the rotation — chalk it up to a bad game for McMahon, he’s too talented to struggle for long. But I definitely agree about Cecconi, I'd love to see him move into the weekend rotation. What a talent that guy is.

Sam

1:36

Did La Tech lose their chances at an at large bid after week one of conference play barring some ridiculous win streak from here out? It just seems that Arkansas and USM were the only hope of a good RPI opportunity.

Kendall Rogers

1:36

Sam -- It's probably too early to start speculating on that, but just reading the tea leaves -- La. Tech has an RPI of 60 right now and lost two of its non-conference series, and just got swept (at home) by Southern Miss. Based on historical precedent, I find it hard to believe La Tech would be an at-large team at the end of the season unless it does some incredible things the rest of the way in Conference USA. I still think this club is dangerous, though.

Casey

1:37

Your thoughts on USM this past weekend? Do you think the offense we saw this weekend is the one we can expect to see from here on out? Obviously we can’t expect 40 hits and 27 runs every weekend but can we at least be encouraged that the horrid offense from earlier this season is gone?

Aaron Fitt

1:38

Definitely encouraging — this was a lot more like what we expected to see from Southern Miss heading into the season. The offense I saw in Starkville in Week Two was really unimpressive, but I figured Scott Berry would get those guys going at some point, and now we’re seeing it. Obviously the personnel there is plenty capable, led by Wallner and Hunter Slater and Matthew Guidry and Brant Blaylock. That’s a nice core to build around. Now let’s see if the pitching can really make strides, because they still have some things to figure out on the mound.

1:39

Who are some of your favorite freshmen (or newcomers) across the nation?

Kendall Rogers

1:40

TC, I will keep this short, but I really like Adrian Del Castillo of Miami and Kendrick Calilao as my hitters. Del Castillo has huge power for a youngster and Calilao is a complete player. He can go opposite field with big-time juice and has such a mature approach. On the mound, I've been really impressed with JT Ginn. It's not easy sometimes to have the success he's had already with a huge target on your back and with high acclaim, but he's met expectations in a big, big way.

Aaron Fitt

1:42

I'll throw Cole Wilcox into the mix -- he was sitting 98-99 out of the Georgia pen on Saturday, touched 100, and has a big-time power slider too. You watch, he's going to take off in the second half and become a huge difference maker.

John

1:42

LSU still struggled to score in Game one this weekend, but other than that, they looked much better. Hess (still too many walks), Walker, Hilliard, and the pen threw well combined with 23 runs in the last two games of the series. Is this a sign that LSU has turned the corner or do you think that this was just a symptom of playing and overmatched Kentucky team? How do you see their matchup this weekend with UGA going?

Aaron Fitt

1:43

I think they have turned the corner. Hilliard should only get stronger as the year goes on, which I think will be big for LSU, because we all saw what he's capable of last year. I think there are plenty of very nice pieces on the mound there, and it was good to see Hess turn in seven strong innings, but you're right about the walks, he's gotta rein in his control. Certainly we've never lost faith in the LSU offense, there's too much talent there -- I expect a huge second half for that unit.

Mike

1:44

Where's Penn State?

Kendall Rogers

1:45

Mike -- We are really impressed by Penn State's start, which is why Aaron wrote about them last week in our Under The Radar feature. However, the schedule just doesn't warrant a ranking at this point. PSU has that nice series win over UCF, but otherwise it's a bad non-conference slate, which includes a series win over UMass-Lowell this past weekend. No doubt this team is significantly better, though. We'll see how they do this weekend as they open up league play against Minnesota.

BullDawg

1:46

Mississippi State ranks in the top in almost every major pitching statistic. After seeing how they performed against Florida on the road, just how real is this staff and how do they stack up against the rest of the nation?

Aaron Fitt

1:46

Oh, it’s real, and it’s spectacular. I’ve said repeatedly now, I think Small and Ginn might be as good a one-two punch as you’ll find anywhere, and Keegan James certainly has big stuff in the No. 3 spot, but he needs to be more consistent. I just love the bullpen though — the depth of that group is incredible, I think. Gordon is as reliable a closer as you’ll find, Colby White has huge stuff, Liebelt is a very good bridge guy who presents a different look from a lower slot, Self and Price are battle-tested veterans, and Barlow and Eagan have good stuff from the left side. Love that staff. Might well be the nation's best.

Tex

1:47

Dallas Baptist has a bunch of guys with mid to upper 90's velo. Also with quality wins over A&M and OU. Are they close to the top 25?

Aaron Fitt

1:47

They'd be ranked this week if they hadn't lost their weekend series -- we finally had room to bring them in, and they went and lost two of three to Houston. But yes, DBU is a good club, I expect it will be in the Top 25 at some point this year.

Jacob

1:50

I'm a big Oregon State fan, however when watching them play they do not seem like a top ranked team (maybe im just spoiled from last year) The hitting from the team has been poor so far, yesterday was better but then the fielding played the worst i have seen from the beavers in a long time. Am i to down on them? How do you see the beavers finishing the year?

Kendall Rogers

1:51

Jacob -- I'm definitely not pressing a panic button after losing a series to UCLA (on the road) with Kevin Abel out. I think Oregon State's offense will be a little erratic. After all, the Beavers lost a TON from last year's club from an offensive standpoint. McGarry and Rutschman have been great, but obviously guys like Tyler Malone have to step up. After the weekend, Malone is now hitting under .200. That has to change.

Kevin

1:51

Michael Bienlien's start yesterday was unfortunately no different than all but maybe 1 or 2 of his other career starts. Can't throw strikes, anything that is over the plate gets mashed. The 3rd starter seems to be the hole for the Pack (and it's amazing they started 19-0 while figuring pretty much everything else out). Anyone stand out to fill that role? Thought it should've been Andrew Blake. He's looked great out of the bullpen and can touch at least 94. Does Dalton Feeney ever make it to the rotation or does Avent keep using him and Kent Klyman as the 1-2 punch on the back end?

Aaron Fitt

1:51

You’re right, Bienlien was not good at all, just kept missing to the glove side with everything. Doesn’t feel like he’s the answer as the Sunday guy. I asked the coaches that same question yesterday — how do you see the Sunday starter shaping up going forward? They all pretty much threw their hands in the air, they really are trying to figure it out themselves. Blake is a neat option — you’re right, his stuff is pretty good, and he’s physical enough that maybe he can maintain it. I feel like Feeney has been too good a fit in the pen, I suspect they’ll leave him there going forward, but you really never know. They clearly need somebody to give them better outings on Sundays.

Grant

1:51

OU now in your guys’ Top 25. Encouraging seeing this lineup coming together and Ruffcorn in the pen. What’s the general feeling of the Sooners going into Big 12 play? Is their ceiling hosting a regional or will they come back down to earth in B12 play and get in the tourney as a 2 or 3 seed?

Kendall Rogers

1:53

Grant -- The Sooners struggled in the bullpen on Friday, but bounced back the rest of the weekend. The rotation looks really solid now with Cavalli getting back on track, Nathan Wiles and Levi Prater, who has been outstanding the last two weeks. Prater struck out 15 against Mo. State over the weekend. OU has some soldi pitching depth and the offense is good enough, IMO. Right now, this is a regional No. 2 seed type of club for more with potential to be a host with a strong showing in league play.

Ted

1:54

U Va has an excellent coaching staff and lots of talented players. But they’re off to a slow start. How do you see the rest of their season going?

Aaron Fitt

1:54

Feels like it’s gonna be a struggle, Ted. I just don’t think they’re good enough on the mound. The struggles of McGarry and Vasil have perplexed me, those guys do have real talent, and they just can’t figure it out. I really like Noah Murdock and expect he’s going to start stringing together quality starts in ACC play, but right now that staff has been a major disappointment. The offense is good enough to keep them in plenty of games, but right now I’d have a hard time revising my preseason opinion that Virginia was the 11th-best team in the ACC.

Carrigan Jackson

1:55

Emerson Hancock. Talk to me.

Aaron Fitt

1:55

Feels like he might be establishing himself as the early frontrunner to go No. 1 overall next year. Stuff has always been electric, but it’s gotten better and better, and he’s learned to command it. He sat 96-98 on Friday, and was still 96 on his 105th pitch, with a filthy 85-87 power slider and a quality changeup he could throw for strikes. Awesome body, great makeup, the whole package really.

Luke

1:55

What do you think of Ethan Small not being on the Gold Spikes watch list? Pretty convincing stats so far. #HailState

Aaron Fitt

1:56

He definitely will be on the next list -- remember that the current list was put together in the preseason, and it was really really hard to narrow down, a lot of good players had to be cut. But Small has clearly established himself now as a frontrunner for the award; his strikeout-walk numbers are absurd.

1:56

Can you think of a couple teams that are currently underperforming that are serious contenders? Conversely, are there a couple of trans who are playing a bit above their heads at the moment?

Kendall Rogers

1:58

BK -- For me, the national title contender underperforming right now is Texas Tech. The Red Raiders didn't do much offensively at the Frisco College Classic, and they scored just nine runs in three games against Texas over the weekend. I have zero doubt they are much, much better than that. In terms of playing over their heads a little, I might go with NC State. There's nothing loud about its pitching staff, but the Pack are getting the job done.

Slighted Bulldog

1:58

MSU is 18-2. UCLA is 14-4. MSU is top 20 nationally in BA at .310. UCLA is 120th nationally with a .268 BA. MSU and UCLA have almost identical ERA's (MSU is slightly better) but surely the MSU staff gets the edge with Small and Ginn up front. MSU is top 10 in runs scored. UCLA isn't in the top half of the country. MSU is 6-2 against ranked teams with 3 of those wins coming as true road games. UCLA is 2-2 against ranked teams, with neither of those wins coming on the road. MSU returned 89% of their lineup from the Omaha team last year. I know it doesn't really matter, but everyone wants to be #1. By what metric do you have UCLA in front of MSU (aside from logo)?

Aaron Fitt

1:58

Asked and answered earlier, but you certainly lay out a strong case for Mississippi State, so I wanted to let people see it. Hey, MSU has moved up from preseason No. 14 to No. 2 in just five weeks, that’s not easy to do. We obviously love their team.

Rebel28

1:59

Hey guys, thoughts on Ole Miss' drop to #18 after close games with Louisville and getting the series win over Alabama. Are the rebels close to putting it together with Hoglund emerging as a weapon on Sunday? Thanks

Connecting…

SEC Least

2:43

Do you think this weekend will be a trend in the SEC? SEC West whooped up on the East. Is it just a week one deal, or do you think the West is truly that much stronger than the East overall?

Andrew

4:25

Mississippi State feasted on Florida's bullpen this weekend. The season's young, so are the pitchers and MSU is really good, but it does look like UF's bullpen is a big question mark. And that's not a new development - for every breathless off-season story about Florida having x number of pitchers who can throw over 90 MPH, the Gators haven't really had a stereotypically deep Kevin O'Sullivan bullpen since 2015. The last few years it's mainly been one or two stalwarts out there backing up a dominant starting rotation. And now there are no stalwarts. It feels sacrilegious to question anything about O'Sullivan's pitching development machine, but why have the Gators mostly failed to develop the kind of deep bullpens we expect from them over the last few seasons?

Josh

4:27

With LSU sweeping Kentucky this past weekend and going on the road back to back weeks at Georgia and Mississippi St. do you think that going 3-3 in the SEC the following two weekends will be the best thing for this semi veteran team going forward when they have the Aggies at home the first week in April.

SEC West

4:52

The SEC West, which has 6 of the 7 teams ranked, went 13-2 against the SEC East this past weekend. How much will cannibalization affect these teams when they have to play each other?

Bill

5:21

How sustainable is Auburn's pitching this year?

Oxford Bald Eagle

5:23

I like the way Southern Miss destroyed Tech this weekend but I’m beginning to think C-USA is even worse than normal this year. I’m thinking it’s a 1 bid league. Also, I’m assuming Wallner’s injury coupled with his struggles at the plate and Southern’s ability to pitch means we won’t see him on the mound. Thanks for what you do.

Mike

5:39

OSU - UCLA, for those who watched that series the first 2 games were pretty well reflected by the box score but game 3 really was fielding issues for Oregon State as opposed to struggling pitching. The 1st inning Double was an error (missed a "can 'o corn" flyball in the outfield) that had a hometown scorekeeper rule on, the Beavs also dropped an outfield ball that led to runs, and infield errors plated other runs. That being said, OSU was predicted to finish 3rd in the Pac-12 behind Stanford and UCLA. My question is how much does scheduling factor into OSU's ranking and predicted finishes? They have the toughest Pac-12 schedule this year by far (away series at UCLA, ASU, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon). How much will that play into both rankings and predicted conference finishes? I do believe that if that UCLA series was at Goss OSU would've taken it 2-1...but maybe I'm just a homer. With that schedule is it realistic for Beaver fans to hold their breath for hosting a regional/national seed?

Dan

5:40

You dropped Oregon State 3 spots and with the number of errors and Pitching performance by our starters(minus Abel of-course) I'd say that's fair. My question is.. with one out and the score 9-7 was Pat Bailey right that the UCLA 2nd baseman was off the bag for the second out in the top of the 9th that would have loaded the bases for Oregon State?

John

5:40

LSU still struggled to score in game one this weekend, but other than that, they looked much better; Hess (still too many walks), Walker, Hilliard, and the pen threw better and 23 runs in the second two games.

David

5:46

Should I be worried about Ole Miss pitching that is missing 3 major pieces from last year's tam in Holston, Roth, Fowler.

Guest

10:32

Kevin

5:46

Kendall, what do you make of LSU's pitching staff as a whole? I'd say this weekend was arguably the best showing they've had all year, yet they still issued 15 walks and had 3 HBP. They're an enigma to me so far.

J ROD

5:54

Should I be worried about Fullerton? That team is too talented to be as consistent as they've been. Do you think I'm over reacting and should be expecting them to win the big west and make a run per usual ? Idk gentleman they are confusing me! Haha

Brandon

6:01

Tech is a hard team to figure. Early in the year, starting pitching was a bit suspect. Against UT, our weekend starters were excellent. Seems like our "vaunted" offense is sputtering a bit. Any concerns with the lineup? I'd rather be hitting on all cylinders in June instead of March.

Zach

6:02

How differently do you view getting the sweep vs winning 2/3 in top tier matchups? For example NC State, Miss. State, UCLA

Brett

6:05

Arkansas with a solid opening weekend sweep against a weak Mizzou team. What worries you most about the Hogs going forward?

6:07

Seems like a big drop to 18 for the Rebels after close midweek loses to Louisville and getting 2/3 from Bama. What do ya'll expect to see from the Rebs moving forward?

Knox

6:10

What do you think about the vols and this past weekend, should fans be concerned? Also how does the heat sheet work as I’ve seen multiple vols throw 96 and Schultz throwing 100+?

Luke

6:15

Which team has the best starting rotation in the nation? The best bullpen?

Darryl

6:17

While there's a lot to like about Miss. State, what area of their game would you say needs the most work?

eight26

6:17

Fullerton appears to have their Friday and Sunday pitching figured out, but that Saturday situation ... woof. Their bats are as strong(er) as I've seen in years. So ... is this team any good or not? Coach Hook always dials it in down the stretch. Can he make the magic happen this year too?

BaseballGirl

6:19

Even though Tennessee was swept by Auburn, how do you think they will perform the rest of the conference season? Were there any positives you saw from Tennessee during the Auburn sweep?

Rich

6:29

Oregon State has some big issues with trying to find a solid lineup that can be a good threat at the plate, their rotation has been disrupted with Able out and iffy Sunday production, and the fielding has been pressing lately - yet they are still 13-4-1, having played the 2nd most difficult schedule in the nation. Some fans are panicking, but we were so spoiled with the team of the past few years - any real reason to be concerned?

TheRealMiami

6:32

I know it's probably a little off the radar, but the Miami RedHawks seem to be putting something special together with their start this season in Oxford. Kent State has had a rough start, mostly because of what looks to be a tough schedule, but is this finally the year another team could run the MAC wire-to-wire? Just kind of curious if there were any thoughts on Miami/Kent or the MAC in general.

Jacob

6:35

I’m starting to get concerned about FSU, what’s your thoughts on the Noles?

SEC WEST

6:36

The SEC West is always a tough division but this year is incredible. Feels like someone could win it at 17-13 due to teams just beating up on each other. What three teams do you think have the best shot at winning the west? State looks great. Ole Miss is very talented and avoid Vandy and UGA in the east. AU can pitch the hell out of it. Ark and aTm seem to be better than expected. Should be fun. Would love your thoughts!

Mike

6:39

What is going on with the Irish? Lose to some terrible teams, but win back to back road series in the ACC before heading home. Many big series coming up soon, but general thoughts?

Brandon

6:42

Arkansas pitching has been surprisingly solid so far, Campbell, Scroggins, and Kostyshock have really upped their game. Do you see Arkansas having enough offensive firepower to make another run?

Rob Bible

6:48

Also, USM obviously is going to have to RPI issues with the loss to UNO and the two losses to Gonzaga. Do they get an at large if they manage to get to 40 wins? Or do they have to win the tournament? Seems like the Ole Miss games are must wins this year.

Guest27

6:54

Should we be concerned with FSU's weekend rotation? Parrish has been avergae, Van Eyck has control issues, and for what seems like a lot of years in a row they don't have a defined Sunday starter. With that being said, what are your thoughts about FSU now that they have two conference weekends under their belts?

Chele

7:01

The PAC-12 has really stepped up this year with UCLA, OSU, ASU, and Stanford all being ranked, and Washington is always gritty. How do you think they stack up against the SEC and do you think in the future we see more pre-conference play between the two conferences?

7:05

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