JotCast | Wild Card Series Day 2 Chat

Wild Card Series Day 2 Chat

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Tony Wolfe

1:18

Tanaka's also really good in the postseason (46 IP, 1.76 ERA)

Jay Jaffe

1:18

The Yankees looked pretty good last night, and they're obviously in the drivers' seat now. If Judge and Stanton are back to being threats, there's just nowhere to hide in that lineup except maybe Sanchez, who's not a true talent 69 wRC+ guy i don't think

i've covered some sterling Tanaka postseason starts

1:19

that guy is nails

Tanaka-Carrasco, even https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/10/09/yankees-indians-alds-masahiro-tanaka...

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

1:21

What kind of contract can Ozuna expect in this weird, covid-dependent offseason? Over/under 3/$75?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

I'd love to see what Dan's projections say but I'm sure he can do better than that, coming off such a strong season in a winter with very few impact bats available.

1:24

Looking at our spiffy new free agent tracker https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?sort=-1,1, Ozuna is tied for the highest WAR of any pending free agent, and is younger than LeMahieu (also 2.5 WAR) and Springer (1.9). After those two and Realmuto, the dropoff is steep, not that guys like Gregorius and Brantley won't find decent deals

Darth NateR

1:25

After a Brewers upset, what upset would most surprise the folks on this chat?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

Twins threatening here in the first thanks to an Altuve error, 12_ 2 out.

Tony Wolfe

1:25

Kind of a boring answer since it's the other 1 v 8 matchup, but the Jays always seemed like a longshot over TB

Jay Jaffe

1:25

A Blue Jays comeback from down 1-0 versus the Rays, a Padres pennant given the state of their rotation

Tony Wolfe

1:26

They just don't have enough arms, even before dropping Game 1 last night

Jay Jaffe

1:26

no, they don't. But those bats can be fierce

Tony Wolfe

1:27

for sure

Domingo

1:27

Is Bauer the coolest player in the game?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

ugh

Tony Wolfe

1:27

trevor what are you doing in this chat you're supposed to be pitching

Jay Jaffe

1:28

he stepped off the mound to engage in some targeted harassment on Twitter

Dan Szymborski

1:28

OK, postseason projections updated.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?&ser...

Jay Jaffe

1:29

wow, Padres still 67%?

Tony Wolfe

1:30

Twins strand bases loaded in the first again. That should go fine

Jay Jaffe

1:30

They had one job

Central

1:31

Any truth to the speculation that some of the very best seasons all coming from the central were aided by the bad offenses in those divisions?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

I think the lack of interdivisional play makes every dominant season somewhat suspect. The AL Central had four of the league's six lowest-scoring teams, for example

1:33

in the dugout interview, Baldelli saying Buxton's out because he's not 100% but wouldn't elaborate

Dan Szymborski

1:33

There's a very weird Central is the Toughest Because They Have Seven Playoff Teams! meme going around even though the reason they have seven playoff teams is that they have several of the weakest teams in baseball.

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Royals and Pirates were among the least competitive teams in the majors

gump

1:34

You would think that the Twins would have found ABs for Kirillof in the regular season rather than having him take his very first career AB in the playoffs.

Dan Szymborski

1:34

Royals/Pirates/Tigers probably weaker than all East teams this year and probably all but Rangers in West.

Jay Jaffe

1:34

Tigers put up some fight for awhile but didn't have enough pitching

(though the future for Detroit is bright in that department)

Tony Wolfe

1:35

Sure, but the Twins also had a pretty good lineup, usually 60 games only gets you to the Super 2 deadline, which is when someone like Kiriloff would be expected to show up

*pretty good outfield, I meant

bighen

1:36

how does tender/non-tender work if a team wants to offer a guy a lower salary? Like Steven Matz for the Mets was supposed to make $5M this year and they have to decide what to do with him. Can they offer him $3M for 2021 or does it automatically go to arb ? like i think they should try to keep him at a lower price point but not at $6-7 M etc.

Guest

1:36

Did the Fangraphs staff make picks for the post-season?

Dan Szymborski

1:36

We did!

Jay Jaffe

1:37

The maximum you can offer a guy is a 20% pay cut. if you want to go lower than that, you need to nontender

Dan Szymborski

1:37

Which I can't find now, helpfully.