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Winter Meetings Day 1 Subscriber Chat!
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Steve Adams
4:22
It's a tax thing. With Snell, for instance, I think he's a Washington state resident (or maybe Florida?) -- not a California resident anyhow, so the signing bonus isn't taxed at CA rates. I was talking to an agent about this a bit ago (not Snell's -- Boras doesn't want to hang out with me I guess ... yet) and he laid out a lot of the tax reasoning and went pretty deep into some of the financial elements of signing bonuses, taxes, deferrals, etc. that kind of made my head spin (I was a literature major, ha) but was good perspective.
Ethan
4:22
Expectation for a potential Anthony Rizzo contract, if the rumors of him to Pittsburgh are real (please God no)?
Tim Dierkes
4:24
There's probably kind of a respectability thing around the $10MM mark, especially as a guy who was earning $20MM.  I wouldn't really offer 10 to Rizzo at this point, but perhaps the Pirates would need to go to those lengths since the club is not necessarily perceived as a top contender.  I'd probably guess around 8 mil with the chance to get to 10+.
Steve Adams
4:25
Yeah I think 8ish probably. For what it's worth, I've not seen Rizzo/Bucs from anyone with any real reporting track record. Doesn't mean the guys who are saying it aren't onto something -- lots of people get random bits of intel -- but it sounds like you're pretty against it and apprehensive of the deal coming together so I wouldn't sweat too much just yet
Blooper Disbeliever
4:25
Do the big names just go in/out without chatting or can you talk people up? Has anyone big recognized you guys/MLBTR overall?
Tim Dierkes
4:26
Anyone in the lobby, or elevator, or standing outside this huge hotel complex, or whatever, is fair game.  In my experience going to maybe 6-8 Winter Meetings in my life, the more recognizable people try to avoid standing around in a way that would allow anyone to approach them.
Steve Adams
4:27
We wear cool little media credential lanyards with our names and affiliation on them, so if they  look close enough they can tell, ha. I'm not sure many "big name" people would pick me out of a lineup, ha.

But yeah, to Tim's point, Dave Dombrowski isn't just sitting in the middle of the lobby sipping a beer or anything
Tim Dierkes
4:27
Perhaps that contradicts what I said earlier.  But I mean you don't have a ton of shots at Boras or Cashman or something.  But if you stand in the lobby for three hours and you're more than a casual fan, you should see some retired players around for various reasons.
Ryan Red-leg
4:27
Any chance the Reds can get Teoscar Hernandez?  Seems like it's going to be quite a bidding war.  If not Hernandez, who do you think they go after via trade or free agency?
Bill Russell
4:27
Is T Hernandez going to sign with the Dodgers? or will he ride off into the sunset with Boston or NY Yanks?
Tim Dierkes
4:28
I'm starting to think he might find better offers from a team other than the Dodgers.  Perhaps he could play upon someone's temporary insanity to get a fourth year.  But there's no reason the Reds couldn't do that.
Steve Adams
4:29
I tend to think he's going to get to a point where the Dodgers just don't want to invest that type of years/dollars in a defensively limited player who's already 32. It's just not how they operate. I was surprised there was so much steam when he was around the 3/60ish expectation, and now with the Dodgers/Yankees/Jays/Red Sox and more all looking at him post-Soto, I'm wondering if he might get to four as well.
4:30
Reds, it depends how much Castellini is willing to push payroll, which we don't have an indication of. I feel like the Reds will end up shopping in a lower tier than Teo/Santander at this point. I previously have liked Teoscar/Reds, but that was admittedly before they gave Martinez the QO
GW
4:30
Is there collective shock over the total amount that Soto got? The last 3-5 years of that contract might not look great.
Tim Dierkes
4:31
The reports a couple days ago that bidding had passed 700 mil kind of muted the shock of 765 for me.  But when I sit back and think about how no one was over maybe 630-650 a month ago (no forecaster, that is), then yes, 765 feels like a total shock.  Especially with no deferrals.  Certainly the Mets know he could be a burden toward the end, but that's the cost of doing business.  Plus there remains the chance he opts out after year 5.
Steve Adams
4:32
Heh, I had just landed and gotten settled and was having a drink and dinner off site at a small bar nearby last night when he signed -- it was funny that you could hear the whole bar kind of gasp and start murmuring "765!" to each other. And that the bar was obviously just full of Winter Meetings attendees. You could definitely hear that he was the topic of conversation around the area for the next 10 mins or so
Blake Snell
4:33
I think everyone goofed by not giving me a long-term contract last off season.  Could have had me for less than the Dodgers paid, suckas.
Tim Dierkes
4:33
I actually agree with that!  We feel a bit vindicated having projected 200 mil for Snell last winter.  I'm guessing he could've been locked up for a straight $150 mil a year ago.
Guest
4:34
What is Milwaukee'a biggest need (or two) and do you see it (them) filled internally, trade or via FA?
Steve Adams
4:34
I agree with all that re: Snell
4:36
They need more starting pitching depth and rotation help. You can't bank on Myers repeating last year, even though he looked solid. Woodruff, who knows? And then you're probably moving Ortiz over from 3B to SS, but you could really look for either left-side spot. I generally feel like a trade is likelier in all facets. They could (and have) dip into the $8-10MM bucket for starting pitchers, but it's an aggressive market for SP this winter. In the infield, the options in  that price range aren't great, unless you really think you can get a Yoan Moncada bounceback.
Kevin C
4:36
How many despairing messages do you get from fans that start with "My team has done less than the A's!"? My Nationals are in that spot. Tell me not all is lost.
Steve Adams
4:36
Most teams have done less than that.
The MLB offseason is a grind. There's plenty of calendar left. Most of the big free agents. Most of the plausible trade candidates, etc.
Tim Dierkes
4:37
I just think it's really early yet in terms of which free agents are off the board, and most of the players that make sense for the Nats are still free agents.  I liked them a bit for Severino, but probably at less money.  There are viable Sevy alternatives, and the big FA 1B are still out there.
Guest
4:37
With so many baseball people there and reporters, how easy is it to get information.  Do you have a team by team contact you stay in touch with, or is there one or two people you use to keep up to date on things?
Tim Dierkes
4:38
I tend to let those relationships develop organically, and I don't have people at every team I talk to.  The ones I do talk to, I don't really pump for info like "Who are you interested in?"  That's a pretty transactional relationship and I guess that hasn't really been our thing.
Steve Adams
4:40
Yeah, echo all of that -- in part because I kind of came up through this learning from Tim and we have similar personalities and approaches to talking to people, ha. Most of my connections were made cold, and you can kind of tell as you interact in those first few instances if they are going to be willing to open up and chat more as time goes on. A lot of people are like "Oh hey I love MLBTR, great to hear from you" and others are just "I'd prefer not to comment" or don't reply at all, which is a pretty good barometer of how things might progress over the years
Adam T
4:40
I know Sasaki is limited to a minor league contract because of his age. What's to stop the team that signs him from immediately extending him?
Steve Adams
4:42
Anything that the commissioner's office deems to be a circumvention of the international rules would be disallowed. So signing Sasaki for a $5MM bonus and then giving him $300MM in March won't be allowed.

It's subjective as to when an extension might be able to actually come into play.... we never ran into it with Ohtani. It'll be fascinating to watch with Sasaki. If he signs a $300MM+ extension in, say, spring of 2026 ... is that going to be allowed by the league? I genuinely do not know.
I think a lot of people (most people) don't
Angels fan
4:42
Artie Moreno keeps talking aggressively. What can the realistically do
Steve Adams
4:42
They've already done more than they did last winter! Low bar to clear
Tim Dierkes
4:43
I feel like they should add a 2B/3B as Rendon/Rengifo insurance, maybe a reliever or two, and probably something better than Adell for RF.
Steve Adams
4:44
They still need more rotation help, but that's been the case for ten years or so. I'm amazed Moreno actually gave the green light on the Ohtani deal. If I were a fan, I'd be hoping that's a harbinger for change and it opens the door for them to pursue Fried or something, but I'm skeptical they'll go that far.

This sounds cynical, but it's true. For years I have just shrugged off trying to guess what the Angels will do because they constantly confuse me, ha. I expect more half measures as Moreno still refuses to come to terms with the reality that he does not, in fact, have the core of a contending club in  place.
RR
4:45
Hi & thx!  Curious why the Cubs are seemingly so motivated to deal Bellinger when they have so much payroll space, and seemingly not a lot of appetite to spend.  Can’t see a lot of 10m relievers, not so sure I see them chasing an ace, probably the RF spot would go to youth…so how would they even be better?
Tim Dierkes
4:46
I generally agree with that.  They are at about $201MM for their CBT payroll, and it's not clear to me what they would add that they couldn't while keeping Bellinger.  Carson Kelly will eat up a bit, and maybe Jed is thinking a little more aggressively on the bullpen additions than he has in the past.  Perhaps it's mostly that they just do not like the return on investment Belli offers at this stage and really want to open up a lane for Caissie and Alcantara.
JL
4:47
If the Os are reluctant to sign someone with a QO, who can they target to improve the roster?
Tim Dierkes
4:48
We still think Eovaldi makes sense for them.  There are a good number of non-QO pitchers out there, most less exciting than him.  They're a great match for Crochet as well.
Steve Adams
4:49
Yeah, Crochet works great there, but he's great for every team. Eovaldi, Heaney... if you want to go big, Max Scherzer and hope he has a rebound in him. They're a great match to trade with the Orioles, but.... Seattle is as stubborn its refusal to trade a pitcher and Baltimore is in its refusal to trade the young position player prospects
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