JotCast | World Series Game 5 Chat

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sadtrombone

8:50

Joc/Stripling deal was because Moreno was sick of waiting and didn't like feeling beholden to the Dodgers. Of course they were both terrible this year so it probably worked out well for them.

Dan Szymborski

8:50

The Angels really *should have* closed the deal though.

Craig

8:50

Was Bill Buckner “great?” Maybe just some friendly courtesy

Dave Roberts

8:50

The Joc deal got held up and the word was that Moreno didn't want the delay

Guest

8:50

Luis Rengifo was worse

David Laurila

8:51

Fun fact: Bill Buckner's last career home run was an inside-the-parker.

Dan Szymborski

8:51

Man Bruce Willis got old.

Fangraph's Lurker

8:51

Arozarena has been amazing, and has me wondering how good Franco will be. Can you give me an example of the gap between them with two players currently in the bigs?

Dan Szymborski

8:52

Aro's been terrific, been Wander has mega-superstar potential that Aro can't touch.

kevinthecomic

8:52

Wasn't Buckner batting champ or MVP or something one year?

Dan Szymborski

8:52

I know you said currently, but Dom DiMaggio was a really good player.

David Laurila

8:52

In 1980 withe the Cubs.

Dan Szymborski

8:53

But he was never going to be *Joe*. How did I pull *that* particular name switch? SMDH

Guest

8:53

How many megasuperstars are currently playing

Dan Szymborski

8:54

That's always in the eye of the beholder. I'm thinking top 5ish guys

Mike

8:54

People getting gushy about Arozarena forget what Aristedes Aquino looked like in 19. Guys start as phenoms much more frequently than they're able to sustain it when the league gets to scout their weakness for a season of PAs. Arozarena could be a mega star and he may also be playing the best 50 games of his career at the best possible time

David Laurila

8:55

Dom DiMaggio pulled a hammy in the eighth inning of the “Pesky Held the Ball” Game 7 and had to be replaced in center by Leon Culberson, a less-accomplished fielder. Played a role in Enos Slaughter’s mad dash.

Guest

8:56

So Dan, just confirming, you don’t use playoff stats in ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

8:56

No, I always do!

I tested years ago with ZiPS and with Marcel. Slightly improves the accuracy.

Which makes sense, these aren't exhibition games, they're games that *super* count against the best teams in baseball!

Wouldn't it be weird if we only evaluated boxers by non-championship fights?

Mike

8:57

Playoff stats seem way more useful this year with extra games in the postseason and less games in the regular season. Much larger increase in the sample

Dan Szymborski

8:57

They're always useful though!

Dodger Fan

8:57

That was Margot's birthday present to John Smoltz.

David Laurila

8:57

Speaking of bunting, last night’s failed sacrifice by Enrique Hernandez was a defendable strategy IMO. Had it been successful the Dodgers would have had a runner on third, one out, and Betts — a great hitter with a relatively low K rate — at the plate. If you pitch around him, you get Seager and Turner.

8:58

Sacrifice bunts are mostly bad, but there are exceptions.

Dan Szymborski

8:58

Arozarena has nine homers against the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers. Why should those not be in projections? These were games that mattered and these were things that he DID.

Guest

8:58

Kershaw’s at that age where he gets a handicap, huh?

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

8:58

That call was kind of outrageous.

Andrew Friedman

8:59

“I talked to Dave last night. If he loses the World Series, we’ll offer him as tribute in Manfred’s Inaugural 2021 Hunger Games”

Guest

8:59

David, that's the rub of the bunt though isn't it? "If it's successful." I think the criticism is the chance that it wasn't successful, PLUS the diminished chance of a regular hit working out.

Dan Szymborski

9:00

If you run the numbers on bunts, it doesn't take a very high successful bunt hit rate for the calculus to become much better.

I like bunts when it's a situation and with a guy where it *could* be a sacrifice, but there's a real chance it could be *more*.

And really, the threat of a bunt has value.

Though I'm not sure how to do the math with that.

Chuck

9:00

Have you run Aroz’s projections for next year? Im very curious for fantasy

Dan Szymborski

9:00

I did in one of the Live events for FG!

9:01

The Eric/Ben casts.

I don't have it handy.

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