Return toCapitalist Times
07/28/2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
This chat is available to members only. Please log in to participate.
Eric F.
2:44
Hello sirs, can you talk about the earnings presentation on XPLR, and if you think it’s still on track for the future.
AvatarRoger Conrad
2:44
There's quite an ongoing data dump of Q2 earnings and guidance updates. So we're still picking over a lot of results, including XPLR Infrastructure's (NYSE: XIFR).

You can expect full analysis for this company as well as the other 160+ I track in Conrad's Utility Investor, when the August issue posts on Monday the 10th.

But my initial read of XPLR is recovery is very much on track. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance, ongoing development CAPEX (50% repowerings completed) and plans to extinguish the remaining CEPFs (convertible equity preferred finance) that forced last year's dividend elimination. That includes the first payment for CEPF 5 and retirement of $500 mil of remaining convertible notes. Debt interest expense was cut 20%. And it looks like new revenue from investment is balancing what was lost from asset sales, with the result of flat free cash flow and EBITDA.

I suspect there's some buy on rumor sell on news going on today. The silver lining is XPLR is just under my highest buy in price of 12.
Mr. G
2:50
Any update on AES? You've recommended hanging on, as there's a few more dividends to be paid, but that money can reinvested in higher-paying stocks if the buyout, at the very low price, is going to be completed
AvatarRoger Conrad
2:50
AES stock has closed the gap toward 15 over the past month, since management won the shareholder vote. So the return for hanging onto the close--assuming regulatory approvals are forthcoming and the acquiring consortium holds together--has declined somewhat.

My view is still that the stock would drop on deal failure but has a great deal of long-term upside if the company were to remain independent. But I am currently reconsidering this position. And I may have new advice for you in the August issue.
Sandra W
3:01
Thank you Roger for deftly navigating change and keeping us aware of the pitfalls. 
 
We have health challenges now and I'm not sure my mental condition is up to trading. I am wondering how you think about determining who to consider managing our brokerage accounts. Our sons are caught up in the quick wealth hype that is rampant on the internet and think we are losing out with this kind of portfolio. I wouldn't consider them. Our Broker rep says he can't match your success. Where to look?
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:01
Hi Sandra. I think we've entered a period where a carefully selected portfolio of individual stocks is going to greatly outperform the big cap indexes--as we saw in the 2000-2010 period. And that means having a seasoned advisor attending to your portfolio will be extremely important if you're not managing your own positions.

You have confidence in our work at Capitalist Times and we appreciate it. And you say your broker says he can't match our success. So here's a suggestion that, yes, does have an element of self interest on my part: Just have your broker read our stuff and manage your account accordingly.

He can also write me at service@capitalisttimes.com.

Thank you for your question.
Alex M.
3:09
Hi Elliott.  With so much attention being paid to the higher yields on long-dated Treasury securities, is there a reason the U.S. Treasury doesn't simply shift toward issuing more short-term Treasury bills to reduce its borrowing costs? I'm curious what the trade-offs or unintended consequences of that approach would be.  Thanks.
AvatarElliott Gue
3:09
Actually, the US Treasury has already shifted to favor T-Bills over longer term notes and bonds. It started with the "Yellen pivot" back in 2023. Basically, there was an overnight facility at the Fed called "Reverse Repurchase" (RRP) , which allowed money market funds to park cash at the central bank and earn a risk free interest rate. When the Treasury started issuing more T-Bills, the rate on T-Bills was slightly higher than what's available in the Fed facility, so money market funds shifted trillions from RRP to T-Bills. The high was around $2.7 trillion for RRP in the spring of 2023 and today it's at $350 billion. The exact mechanics are a little complex, but draining RRP allowed Treasury to issue more Bills to fund the yawning deficit while the Fed  reducing the size of its own Treasury holdings without hitting high powered money (basically bank reserves, the level of which influences economic activity most directly.) The end result is that Treasury issuance is already heavily biased in favor of the
AvatarElliott Gue
3:09
front of the curve, far more so than the Treasury would like longer term. Some years back they put out a study projecting an optimal mix of maturities -- 15% to 20% in T-Bills-- and they are far from that baseline now (around 23% at times). The benefits of increased T-Bill issuance includes that it puts less pressure on long-term borrowing costs, taps cash reserves in money market funds and offers flexibility. The risks are that the Treasury must rollover and refinance massive amounts of debt every few weeks, it makes borrowing costs very leveraged to short-term Fed policy rates and changes and  it tends to dry up liquidity in longer-term Treasury markets which markets rely on for pricing risks. Further, primary dealers -- big banks that facilitate Treasury auctions, struggle to manage auctions when liquidity dries up.
Bill M.
3:09
Hi Roger and Elliott,
CWEN keeps moving lower with a yield approaching 6% that is growing at 6% a year.
My experience is that there may be problems that haven't been made public yet. Do you think there may be problems? The second question is why did XPLR sell off after what looked like good earnings and progress with the convertible debt?
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:09
Hi Bill. Clearway will release its Q2 results and update guidance on August 5--so we'll have a good opportunity then to see if anything has changed at the business. But at this point, I there's no reason to expect anything has.

The company did consolidate its heavily discounted Class A shares and Class C shares into a single equity earlier this year. And the price has been weak ever since, suggesting some Class A holders were in to play a close in the discount and have been selling since. And I think the stock has picked up some downside momentum since. But I'm going to stay with CWEN at least until we see the results.

As for XPLR, as I answered in the previous question, we may be seeing some buy on rumor, sell on news. But in any case, the Q2 results and guidance demonstrate the recovery is on track. And the stock had been above my buy in price of 12.
Frank
3:21
I always thought that in times of geopolitical instability you bought gold. Inflation rising, you bought gold. Now it seems that every time war flares up in the Mideast gold goes down. Same with high inflation readings and gold goes down. It seem unmoored from it's traditional uses and trades now like a "Risk" asset. Am I seeing this right?
AvatarElliott Gue
3:21
The long-term correlation between gold and stocks is close to 0 and that hasn't changed significantly in recent years. So, since stocks are generally considered a risk-on asset, and gold isn't correlated to the S&P 500, I don't think we can say it's a risk-on asset. Over the past 27 years, the two macro factors that have had the strongest influence on gold are the value of the US dollar (US Dollar Index) and real rates (rates adjusted for inflation). Gold is inversely correlated to both. Lately the dollar has been rallying and real rates have been rising, both negatives for gold prices. The US dollar generally benefits in times of crisis and, as I covered in a recent video the US dollar has become increasingly positively correlated to oil prices in the past 10 years, likely a consequence of the shift in the US from the world's largest importer of energy commodities to a net export position. Simultaneously, while rising oil prices are a net benefit to the US, they hurt all of America's main trading partners
AvatarElliott Gue
3:21
(Europe, UK, Japan, even China). So, the recent conflict in the Middle East has been sort of a double-whammy for gold -- there's been a typical flight-to-safety run for the dollar and, unlike the 70s, the US dollar is now a "petrocurrency."  I cover the issue in more depth in this video: https://open.substack.com/pub/freemarketspeculator/p/the-us-dollar-is-...
Clay Montgomery
3:44
Would you view Pinnacle West (PNW) as a possible good short-sell now until the end of the year? Can you suggest another similar utility that might be better for shorting now?
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:44
There are basically two reasons to short a stock now in the dividend-focused coverage universes I track. Either underlying business fundamentals are weakening or the stock has reached a price/valuation that's historically not been sustainable.

I'm not recommending shorting any utility stocks at this time based on reason #1--that may change once we've seen Q2 numbers and guidance. But the fact is this sector is about as healthy as it's been for some time. That said, there are a number of companies in the Utility Report Card coverage universe currently trading above prices where I'd advise taking at least a partial profit. That point for Pinnacle West (NYSE: PNW) is 120--so the stock is still somewhat below that level. But AEP is above 130 and there are more possibilities in the URC table.
Clay Montgomery
3:45
Thanks, Clay
Susan P
3:49
Healthy & Happy Summer to both of you...I am recalling your theme the 'Year of Nat Gas' and how the focus on oil has dimmed the spotlight on nat gas' potential export role going forward. Happily, BSM (Blackstone Minerals) bumped its distribution recently. My question for either or both: has this year's developments around oil, especially the refined product as explained so exceptionally in Elliott's recent FMS, changed your outlook for LNG exporting from the USA. I know the early months of Epic Fury damaged infrastructure in the Mideast but wondering if the supply route changes for oil and its refined products have impacted your nat gas outlook. Thanks much for all the help you both--and Shelly--provide subscribers.
AvatarElliott Gue
3:49
Thanks for being in the chat and for the kind comments about the FMS video. Hope you're having a great summer as well. Significant volumes of Middle Eastern LNG remain stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the closure of Hormuz. The primary regional exporter (Qatar) has experienced some facility damage and, more importantly i think, they've delayed expansion projects scheduled for 2026-2029. The world's LNG Big 3 are the US (#1), and Australia/Qatar which have been vying for #2 and #3. Australian LNG exports are set to flatline and decline as their main projects mature and Qatar was set to emerge as the solid #2. With Qatari expansion in doubt, and buyers likely to view regard eventual expansions as higher risk of disruption, the US is the main viable alternative. The problem is that it takes time for the US to build out additional export capacity. It's happening -- I see an additional 4 bcf/day of LNG export capacity by roughly the end of 2027, and even more in 2028-2031, but until it's physically in place
AvatarElliott Gue
3:49
a lot of US gas volumes are trapped in North America and can't be used to exploit the wide arbitrage gap (Sub $3/MMBtu in US vs. ~$21 in Europe/Asia). All that US gas, trapped in the US, also doesn't really help Europe/UK, where the situation is looking pretty dire heading into the winter of 2026/27. SO, my view is that the conflict probably means we see more gas-attached export capacity -- LNG, nitrogen fertilizer, methanol  -- but incremental volumes beyond what we already have penciled in for the next 18 months are likely a 2029+ story. A lot of LNG buyers (again Europe) put all their 2026-28 eggs in the Qatari basket,
sanctioned away access to Russian volumes and that looks like a frighteningly bad call/trade.
As for refined products/oil and LNG. They’re separate markets. There are no workarounds for LNG volumes around Hormuz as there are for oil. LNG export terminals in the US are very different in terms of construction than refineries.
The one link is that refineries consume a lot of natgas. Basically, refining is a process of heating liquids up (ie. Oil) to separate those liquids into hydrocarbon molecules of different lengths (shorter/lighter molecules more gasoline-like and heavier chains moving into distillates (diesel) and products like asphalt). Gas is a key fuel for that, so that’s an additional cost advantage of US, Middle Eastern refiners compared to other regions since they can consume their own domestic gas.
Guest
3:50
Your opinion on GEL....short term and as a long term holding.  Thanks for your timely advice.  Monroe
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:50
Hi Monroe.

Genesis Energy will release Q2 results and update guidance on August 6. And following this month's dividend increase to 20 cents a quarter (up 11.1% sequentially and 21.2% from a year ago) there's every reason to expect the pipeline company's Q2 built on the momentum from Q1.

Our view on this MLP became considerably more positive when management strategically pivoted to focus on its high quality midstream assets and sold the unrelated soda ash business--cutting debt. The big question at the time was if the remaining operations would support the dividend. And management has since answered that as a definitive yes with the dividend increases. Again, we'll know more next month. But Genesis is a buy up to 16--we track it in the MLPs and Midstream coverage universe table.
shelll
3:51
Hi Guys, Now that I have taken profits off the table in VLO, where would you suggest putting the proceeds from that sale. One of your recent posts suggested upstream energy companies.
AvatarElliott Gue
3:51
In the flash alert we suggested upstream producers and services companies. Our favorites include PR, OVV and EOG upstream (also XOM and CVX among the majors). On the services front, we still like SLB and BKR.
Guest
3:57
Hello Roger, Given that my view of the market is pretty high, I would love to know your opinion of buying a fair amount of safe high dividend stocks and reducing my ETF exposure. Do you have an opinion on 6 or 7 safe high dividend stocks that might fit the bill. Thanks, Richard
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:57
Hi Richard. You might want to check out my CUI Plus/CT Income Portfolio service. It currently holds 18 dividend paying positions across a range of industries. I also provide weightings for balance. And the average year-to-date return for the stocks is a little over 20%.

If you're interested in seeing this service, please contact Sherry at 877-302-0749, M-F, 9-5 ET.

At this point, there are also a large number of top quality real estate investment trusts selling at good prices/high yields. And my REIT Sheet points out the best of these. There are also some real bargains in the utilities sector, though there are many stocks trading at what have historically been unsustainable valuations and we have to be more selective. The same is true in the high yielding midstream energy space, where most C-Corps are pricey.

I think it's a good idea to move from ETFs--especially those centered on big cap indexes that are going to be heavily tech weighted.
Hans
3:59
Elliott,  How does BIZD compare to HTGC
AvatarElliott Gue
3:59
BIZD is an exchange traded fund (ETF) that holds a portfolio of Business Development Companies (BDCs) -- there are a total of 36 names in there at last count. HTGC is a BDC (in fact it's in the BIZD portfolio) that focuses on venture debt in the tech and life sciences (biotech). BDCs basically lend money to development stage companies; like a bank loan most of these loans carry floating interest rates, which gives you some insulation from rising rates. Though, of course, this represents higher risk debt from a credit perspective than your normal senior bank loan portfolio or high-yield (junk) bonds.
Frank
4:03
I have a pretty extensive portfolio of MLP's and I love them for the deferred income, getting income that doesn't show up on my current tax returns. K-1's are no problem with Turbotax. I was dismayed though when I added BSM and saw all my income moved over as "Royalties" over to Schedule E at a higher tax rate. Bummer. I assume DMLP is the same, but not VNOM. It seems to negate the advantage of owning the MLP
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:03
Hi Frank. First off, I'm glad to hear you have no problem with K-1s using Turbotax. And as you point out, there are numerous advantages to deferring taxes. Black Stone and Dorchester are both royalty companies--cash flow depends on what third parties produce on their lands and the realized selling price for that output. Viper essentially does the same thing, with Diamondback Energy's plans the primary driver. But it has no K-1, so more limited tax advantages.
BKNC
4:09
What are your present thoughts on VST? I have been a little bit skeptical due to the winter freeze a while back ago for TX. It has come back and may be good at this point.
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:09
I think Vistra Corp management has consistently executed its business plan since the previous decade. And as a result, it's free cash flow growth has been consistently strong, allowing steep debt reduction and stock buybacks. The portfolio has been greatly strengthened with acquisitions--most importantly the nuclear plants formerly owned by First Energy Corp and this year a substantial amount of natural gas generation.

Q2 results are slated for August 7. And I expect to see continuing momentum at the business, solid debt and operating cost reduction and a lot more about AI-related growth.

The stock has come off a long way since last year, when we consistently recommended taking partial profits. But I'm bullish at 160 or less.
JT
4:10
HI Elliott, I enjoyed your Sunday Deep Dive on refining crack spreads.  If you had a position in VLO and have sold 2/3rd of it on the run up, would you be looking to sell the rest here?  Has history shown any time when refining margins are this good and in such cases, are they short lived and come crashing down soon after?
AvatarElliott Gue
4:10
Thank you! Unfortunately, we're in uncharted territory here -- we've never seen crack spreads this elevated before. In a higher-for-longer refining environment I can get to a VLO valuation ~$350. However, we're not far off that and so I think the downside risks outweigh the upside potential from here.
Alex M.
4:15
Hi Roger.  What are your thoughts on the preferred shares of EIX?  Some of them are yielding roughly 7.5% and have some upside to par.  Thanks.
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:15
Hi Alex. I think they're a conservative investment at this point. Like the common stock, prices have risen to reflect Edison's greatly improved outlook regarding potential liability for the Eaton Wildfire. But yields are still attractive for some issues. And I expect company prospects to continue improving, with Q2 results and guidance due July 30.

The biggest risk is inflation. Should worries push longer-term borrowing costs higher, the price of these preferreds will sink. That's one reason I prefer shorter-term obligations when it comes to fixed income.
Don C.
4:21
Roger/Elliott—the world is buzzing with forecasts about AI. Can the utilities ramp up very quickly. Will there be enough copper to cover the increased electricity needsa? Thanks for all that you both do.
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:21
Hi Don. Utilities are currently planning record CAPEX over the next five years--driven in large part by contracts and agreements already signed with hyperscalers--data centers powered up for AI. This buildout is happening very fast and putting upward pressure on the price of copper and other commodities. But so far, utilities' supply contracts are more than covering those costs.

On the question of copper supply, the rule for commodities has always been that supply crunches are ultimately resolved by (1)Increased production, (2)Companies learning to do more with less (conservation) and (3)Increased use of alternatives. Plenty of money is made by miners throughout the cycle. But there's never a point where supply "runs out" as once predicted by the Club of Rome and other organizations.

That said, we see a lot of value building positions in the strongest miners like BHP Group (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP). They're positioned to take advantage of the demand by ramping up output consistently in coming years.
Denisimo
4:29
Regarding LYB mentioned earlier, I was wondering your thoughts on getting back in.  It has been yo-yo-ing up and down with the Strait's news.  As a cyclical sector, do you think once the War is 'over' that'll be the time or are we still a few years away?
Connecting…