JotCast | 07/28/2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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07/28/2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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Roger Conrad

4:29

Hi Denisimo. There's still too much production capacity in Lyondell's key markets. And what's been happening in the Middle East has likely prolonged the supply glut in China, which before appeared to be resolving gradually.

My thought before the Iran war was that Lyondell was well positioned as a company to weather the low point in the cycle--thanks to a successful ongoing plan to streamline operations and cut costs to boost free cash flow. And I believe we'll see more evidence of that progress July 31, when management releases Q2 results and updates guidance.

That said, I still think LYB stock is being treated as a proxy for geopolitical events--rather than where the company is in its cycle. I'm more tempted to buy when the tensions cool and the stock comes down. But it looks like we could see another dip back to the 40s before there's a sustained uptrend.

Allan

4:29

Thanks for chats

Roger Conrad

4:29

Thank you for joining us and your questions!

Allan

4:35

Would you recommend holding gold stocks?I did take some profits at higher prices. Any favorites besides NEM?

Roger Conrad

4:35

If you're looking for a company with similar quality to Newmont, Barrick Mining (NYSE: B) is the closest peer. They release earnings August 10.

The company is also interesting because of the new dividend policy they adopted this year--to pay out 50% of free cash flow as cash dividends and stock buybacks. There's now a base dividend of 17.5 cents per quarter, supplemented by a variable component that's determined in large part by gold prices. There was a 24.5 cent variable payment in Q1. There was just the base in Q2. But the policy is a good way to get paid cash when gold prices move higher--as well as when the company becomes more efficient. I would rate the stock a buy up to 40, Newmont to 120.

shelll

4:35

Hi Guys,

Roger Conrad

4:35

Hi and welcome to the chat.

Jimmy

4:41

One hour into this chat and not a word about Vistra. Can you express your thoughts through year end 2026?

Roger Conrad

4:41

Hi Jimmy. I actually did answer a question about Vistra Corp a bit earlier in the chat. We get to these questions as quickly as we can comprehensively and concisely.

The short answer is we're going to find out a lot more about how the company is faring on August 7, when management releases Q2 results and updates guidance. And I'll have my analysis in the
August issue of CUI, which posts August 10.

I rate the stock a buy at 160 or less. It's come well off the highs of last year when I consistently recommended taking a partial profit. But management has consistently executed its business plan including acquisitions and debt reduction. Assets are running well. And energy demand in Texas where it's focused is booming.

As far as the stock, a lot of people treat it as an AI proxy. And with Big Tech selling off a bit, that's been a negative for the shares recently. But the company is healthy and growing and the stock is at a good entry point. I like it for holding a position the rest of the year and beyond.

Roger Conrad

4:41

For disclosure purposes, I do own Vistra personally--and have since it traded sub-20.

4:50

Hi Elliott, can I get your thoughts on CW portfolio holdings SGI, ARCC, RBA, and BBB. It's been a while since they were added to the portfolio and have gone nowhere. Do you still rate them a buy below the share prices shown in the portfolio table?

Elliott Gue

4:50

TBBB is up around 6.5% since recommendation and I still like that as a play on emerging market growth. I think the main issue there has been the rise in the dollar took the shine of EM stocks, but if a stock is showing a profit and hasn't been in the portfolio for more than 6 months, my general inclination is to give it some room for the story to work. I am also not worried about RBA, which is up 5.8% since recommendation back in Jan. I think that stock could see a catalyst from their earnings release next week. ARCC is a BDC -- Business Development Company -- recommended right at the end of last year. It's down less than 1% once you factor in the hefty yield. My concept for recommending a small position there was that the private credit contagion story was way overdone, especially for large BDCs with long track records like ARCC. I believe that story may be playing out -- in particular look at how many of the BDCs like ARCC, as well as the private equity names like BX have started to berak out from recent

Elliott Gue

4:50

consolidations. Software stocks have stopped falling (MSFT, ADBE, etc.) and one of the big fears was BDC's exposure to software stocks. Again, in my view an overreaction. We didn't jump in until the group was already way off those 2025 highs, but were still a little bit early. But, I think that theme is starting tow work out and if we see more upside through earnings season, I'd even consider recommending an add. SGI is probably the name on your list I am least excited about. My plan has been to give them one more earnings report to prove themselves. If we don't get some move higher soon, I'll probably use SGI as a source of funds for new ideas. In the service I am looking at some more biotechs as well as, perhaps, some smaller tech companies. These are ideas I've been generating from my research into 13-F filings from a number of hedge funds with a long track record of success in these specialized industries. Next batch of 13-Fs hit in mid-August.

Susan P

4:50

Question for Roger, with apologies if you've recently addressed this in CUI+ (that I am behind reading & catching up on) or this chat: What are your thoughts on Pfizer? Thanks much

Roger Conrad

4:50

Hi Susan. Thanks for joining. You're first to ask about Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE), which has been pretty rangebound since I added it to the CUI Plus/CT Income portfolio earlier this year.

The big pharma reports Q2 results and updates guidance on August 4. And I'll have my analysis of those numbers in the next CUI Plus.

My long view on PFE is it's where ABBV was in its product cycle at the beginning of this decade--with investors wondering whether/when revenue from its massive pipeline of new and existing patented treatments will offset lost sales from expiring patents. I think Q2 numbers and guidance will provide evidence that's happening. I think the results will pretty much mirror guidance, based on the same trends affecting Q1. And I don't expect a lot of action in the stock. But the dividend will be well covered and with the recovery that will be enough reason to stick with the stock.

Alex M.

4:58

Hi Roger. The REIT index is at its high for the year, and the 10-year note is also near its high for the year. Are REIT investors expecting a material drop in interest rates over the next 12 months? Because I would expect REITs to be encountering more headwinds with the 10-year near 4.6%. Thanks.

Roger Conrad

4:58

Hi Alex. As I wrote in the July REIT Sheet, I think the rally is more related to growing evidence REITs are learning how to live (profitably) with higher for longer borrowing costs.

REITs would find more development and acquisitions attractive if borrowing costs were lower. But the key is that prospective investment returns generate sufficient margin above those costs. And that appears to be the case for at least the best in class companies across sectors--at least from what we've seen with REITs that have now reported Q2 results and updated guidance like Prologis Inc (NYSE: PLD).

Two other reasons for REIT buying: Property stocks are historically under weighted in major indexes. And they're sharply undervalued relative to the same real estate held privately.

If rates rise enough, they're going to be a formidable headwind for the entire stock market--including REITs. But I don't think current prices are reflecting any expectation of lower interest rates, though that still may happen.

Alex M.

5:08

Hi Roger. AMT and CCI have now reported earnings, and SBAC is scheduled to report next week. What are your current thoughts on the cell tower space? Thanks.

Roger Conrad

5:08

As I said earlier in the chat, Q2 results are coming at us hard and fast. So I reserve the right to change my mind on further reflection from the comments I'm making now.

That said, I think the tower sector has now put both T-Mobile US downsizing of former Sprint connections and the Echostar/DISH contract default behind it. American Tower property revenue growth was very strong at 6.3%. And while much of that was from the data center operation, organic tenant billings growth was solid at 1.7%. That enabled AMT to raise 2026 guidance for the second consecutive quarter. And I think we could see at least one more boost this year.

Crown Castle is in a bit weaker position after selling its fiber network. And revenue including DISH and T-Mobile developments dropped again. Nonetheless, the REIT held to FFO and EBITDA guidance, indicating the worst is behind it.

I definitely favor AMT over CCI. But both stocks remain cheap right now because of greatly overblown concerns about what SpaceX may do in US wireless.

Roger Conrad

5:12

As a post script, I'm increasingly convinced SpaceX is even worse positioned than DISH/Echostar was to create a viable fourth US wireless network--when Charlie Ergen exited the business by selling off its spectrum. For one thing, a fair chunk of DISH spectrum was sold to rival AT&T Inc, not SpaceX. But satellite based networks are far more expensive to operate than towers and fiber. And even after a record IPO fund raise, SpaceX' finances are murky at best--one reason the stock is now -14% below its IPO price and less than half the post-IPO high.

Dan P

5:19

Berkshire seems to have found a footing with a couple of acquisitions, though none in energy. Yet, Greg Able comes w an energy background. Have you heard of any activity or see targets matching his interests?

Roger Conrad

5:19

Hi Dan. If you look back to when Ebel joined Berkshire Hathaway, it was when the US electricity and natural gas infrastructure business was flat on its back with the implosion of Enron. Buffett could buy whole companies on the cheap--and he did so with the former MidAmerican Energy, PacifiCorp and lastly NV Energy.

Those valuation bargains don't exist in the energy space today--with the possible exception of Hawaiian Electric. Also recall Buffett's statement a couple years ago about utility wildfire risk being untenable. As it turned out, a number of states have now passed legislation limiting liability. And one reason was Buffett's implied threat to stop investing in his utilities. But this no doubt remains a concern for Greg Ebel as well.

I still believe IdaCorp would be a great fit for Berkshire's other utility assets. But at almost $150, I would be very surprised if there was an offer from anyone. In fact, Berkshire is in process of selling its Washington state assets to Portland General.

Roger Conrad

5:20

So bottom line I don't think Berkshire will be much of source for energy acquisitions any time soon. I do think the NextEra/Dominion. Energy merger has massive potential and may unlock similar mergers of equals.

Hans

5:26

Roger, What is your opinion on LDOS

Roger Conrad

5:26

Hi Hans. It's not a stock I currently track (Leidos Holdings). The company appears to be getting a lot of US Department of Defense orders. And the stock is way off its highs of earlier this year. That plus the solid dividend increase this year are interesting to me. That said, I would want to see Q2 results on August 4 before making any decision to buy. The stock has come down a long way at the same time other defense stocks have held their own.

shelll

5:32

The spin offs from MDU (KNF and ECG) seem to have run into some headwinds. They both seem to be good companies. Is there something about the 2 companies that I missed. Both have more than doubled in price. Is it time to unload?

Roger Conrad

5:32

The MDU spinoffs have generally tracked the fortunes of their respective sectors--materials for Knife River and construction services for Everus. Both stocks got out of the gate fast following the IPOs and have since consolidated below their highs. I think they're both very high quality companies. KNF in particular is a potential inflation beneficiary. And both companies' Q2 results and guidance due out August 4 should highlight continuing business growth and financial strength.

I think both stocks are likely to go higher in coming years. But my standing advice for any income investor who's still holding shares of KNF and ECG is to take the profits and buy something with a yield. Neither of these companies is likely to pay a dividend. And remaining MDU (earnings August 6) is likely to announce a payout increase next month.

Don C.

5:39

Gentlemen—I have noticed that Canada, under Mark Carney, is now adding to their gold reserves. Carney was head of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England before becoming Prime Minister. Clearly, he is wired to central bankers all over the world. Does this shift in Canadian gold purchases mean anything of note?

Roger Conrad

5:39

Hi Don. I'm pretty bullish on gold and particularly gold mining stocks going forward, after the recent pullback to around $4,000. Elliott made some excellent comments earlier in the chat about gold having essentially zero correlation with the stock market and negative correlation to the US dollar, which is currently strong in the wake of the Persian Gulf conflict (as it usually is in crisis). But I think inflation is not going to be transient. And I think the Fed has limited ability here to really tighten monetary policy, with deficits where they are and employment likely weaker than it appears.

I agree that Carney--unlike former PM Trudeau--is pretty wired in to global economic and monetary trends. And he doesn't make stupid moves. So Canada building gold reserves is another reason for me to stick with positions in the yellow metal and related mining stocks.

Mike C

5:52

Good afternoon gentlemen (and Sherry) - Thanks for hosting these, they're always super-insightful and helpful. Several years ago, you were covering metals, and had AA as one of the holdings. For those of us that lean in the direction of long commodity supercycle, long hard assets, and so on, curious what are your thoughts regarding Alcoa and any metals plays. (I appreciate that both BHP and NEM are metals companies, covered in excellent, bedrock-solid Roger's CT-I service.)

Roger Conrad

5:52

Hi Mike. It's always a good time to look at these miners when they drop the way Alcoa has since June--to the point where it's substantially in the red YTD.

As I said, we're still sifting through a lot of earnings and Alcoa hasn't been a stock I've focused on recently. But Q2 results were even stronger than Q1, the company slashed debt and management announced a major acquisition June 30--former BHP spinoff South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets.

The acquisition will improve Alcoa's supply position. But it's also important to note that much of its business is in smelters--essentially the refining side of the business. And margins are heavily affected by demand from industry, as well as smelter facility performance. Outages forced the company to cut 2026 guidance this month.

Bottom line: Alcoa looks more interesting. But as far as miners, I prefer BHP. I also like FCX, though it looks a little expensive at this price.

Guest

5:59

Roger: I know you like both BSM and MPLX. But because of the scheduled 12.5% annual dividend increases for the next 2 years for MPLX, I am leaning toward putting fresh money there. And does MPLX have more upside growth than BSM? Your thoughts. Thanks.

Roger Conrad

5:59

It's really apples and oranges. Black Stone's cash flow, dividend and share price are going to basically track natural gas prices. The appeal/value proposition is that firming gas prices will boost output from its lands in the Haynesville shale by third parties--which already have aggressive plans there. That plus higher realized prices for oil and gas will boost cash flow and push annual dividends toward management's goal of $2/sh from $1.28 currently. And that will push the stock into the 20s.

MPLX by contrast is boosting cash flow by adding new energy infrastructure under contract. And its majority owner Marathon Petroleum is boosting dividends to a higher percentage of cash flow--which benefits it directly.

I think both stocks are buys now (BSM to 16, MPLX to 60). But MPLX is the safer of the two, while BSM has the most capital growth potential.

BKNC

6:06

I have held on to AES but I personally believe there is not much point in holding it any longer. Very disappointed with management selling at such a low valuation. They were not looking out for the shareholders. So, I am looking for other alternatives, I was looking at AVA, VST, DUK, CWEN, BEPC and EXE. I am interested in pros or cons for these (your opinion). I believe you like them all. I am just trying to find a way to differentiate and make some good selections. I thought you might have some insight which would help. Any knowledge or differentiators appreciated.

Roger Conrad

6:06

I share your disappointment in the selling price of AES. I still think there's a slight possibility this deal comes apart, which would push the stock down near-term but open up possibility to much bigger gains. But that said, the stock price has risen very close to the $15 takeout price and I'm considering making a move with the August issue of CUI (Aug 10 post).

As for replacement stocks, all of those you list are in the CUI portfolios. Duke Energy and Exelon are selling below my buy-in prices and I would wait for a pullback before entering. Avista, Brookfield, Clearway and Vistra are at good prices. But the best idea may be to wait until we get a good look at those Q2 earnings and guidance.

I will have my analysis on almost the entire CUI coverage universe in the August issue. And I highlight the two best buys for the month then as well.

Al C

6:25

SPCX - What portion of SPCX future revenue do you think will come from their internet operations vs space endeavors? How long before SPCX internet operations grab significant market share away from T, VZ and TMUS?

Roger Conrad

6:25

Hi Al. SpaceX' 80% plus owner Elon Musk alone will determine where that company will spend its money. And I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for him to tell us. But I don't see SpaceX disrupting the business of the Big 3 telecoms.

First, AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile are coming off record Q2 results. And they're the strongest they've ever been financially and in market power. Their costs are dropping and their capabilities are expanding.

Second, land-based networks are far cheaper to operate than satellite based ones. And SpaceX isn't offering a new product--just another way of delivering what the Big 3 are more cheaply. Also the Big 3 are in an alliance for 100% US data coverage--which will eliminate the need for satellite entirely when complete.

Third, it would cost upwards of $100 billion for SpaceX to build a new network with comparable reach to the Big 3. And having four competitors rather than three will undermine margins for all--so the return on that investment would be paltry.

Roger Conrad

6:26

Of course, SpaceX may push ahead anyway. That's possible when one person has so much control of a company--no checks and balances.

6:28

But I think it would make a lot more sense for SpaceX to pursue its primary goal--putting people on Mars--by working with the Big 3, rather than going to war with them. And in any case, Mr Musk's record of really disrupting industries isn't what it's cracked up to be. Remember when SolarCity was supposed to run electric utilities out of business--before Tesla absorbed it to prevent it going belly up?

Jeffrey H

6:38

Dear Folks, I just joined the chat and perhaps you have already addressed this question, but I am wondering about your thoughts about CWEN, which seems to be spiraling downward. Any thoughts as to why and whether this signals a buying opportunity? Many thanks

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