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12/18/25 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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Roger Conrad

5:13

NextEra Energy has returned about 16.3% year to date-which is basically what the Big Tech weighted S&P 500 has done.

This stock has had a hard time breaking $90 the past few years. But it's also been increasing its dividend 10% a year. And anyone following my advice not to pay more than our highest recommended entry point, took partial profits when the "take profits" level was reached and (especially) bought in when the Dream Buy levels were hit has done quite well.

As for the future, I'm no advising paying more than $80 at this point. But I think there are multiple upside catalysts for the stock in 2026, starting with proving it can grow when solar tax credits phase out, and probable lower long-term interest rates but also the possibility renewable tax credits are extended again--as they were during Trump's first term.

DRG

5:14

Hi Roger,

Roger Conrad

5:14

Welcome and Happy Holidays!

Lawman

5:20

I don't know if you cover AAPL, but if you do, what are your thoughts about this company and whether it should be bought at this price level?

Roger Conrad

5:20

Great company, very expensive stock (36X earnings) with no dividend to speak of. It's also 7% of S&P 500 ETFs and therefore related investment products that underpin all passively managed money and therefore pretty much anything anyone would own with generic "stock exposure."

Bottom line is if you own any kind of fund or product that advertises holding stocks, you're going to own a big chunk of Apple--just like you're going to own a big chunk of even more expensive NVIDIA (7.25% S&P ETFs), MicroSoft (6.15%) etc.

I don't see any reason to buy any of these stocks individually--especially not at historically high valuations and historically high ETF/Wall Street product weightings that are far more likely to drop in coming years than rise further.

Lawman

5:27

Any thjoughts on Microsoft, and whether it is a better value from a share price stanpoint, that pure AI stocks such as Nvidia and Broadcom?

Roger Conrad

5:27

Again, I think most of us probably own a pretty big chunk of these stocks in one Wall Street product or another--from life insurance to 529s to retirement accounts that aren't individual stocks you manage on your own. We're going to get any remaining upside in these stocks from those--as just 7 stocks are now 38% of S&P 500 ETFs: NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, Alphabet, META, Broadcom and Tesla.

Loading up on more of them with other accounts is just going to concentrate you further in the sector that has had the biggest recent run, is the most exposed to any lessening of AI hype, is the most expensive group based on business value and earnings and is the most heavily weighted. You may get a bigger dose of market momentum. But you're increasing your risk.

DRG

5:37

Hi Roger, beyond the priced-to-perfection, hyped-up Utility stocks, which utilities have the best fundamentals and offer total-return potential ? Also, your thoughts on DUK and SO?

Roger Conrad

5:37

Every month in Conrad's Utility Investor, I pick two best fresh money buys--one a little more conservative and the other a little more aggressive. For December, those were two of the cheaper stocks at the time: New England T&D utility Eversource (ES) which had just had its sale of water utility Aquarion rejected by Connecticut regulators and Canadian telecom Telus, which has been downgraded on the basis of tough wireless competition despite stepped up stock buybacks.

But basically, any stock in the portfolios trading below highest recommended entry points is a good buy now based on fundamentals and growth potential. So are the stocks trading below Dream Buy prices--AES, AQN, BEP etc.

I think both Duke and Southern are a bit too expensive to buy right now, other than with DRIPs--which I've had with both for some time. SO did get briefly under 85 after reaching a deal with Georgia regulators that very slightly reduced 2026-27 earnings projections. But it's back over that now. Great companies, high prices.

Alex M.

5:43

Are you gentlemen seeing opportunities in the BDC space right now? Any names that you like at this time? Thanks.

Roger Conrad

5:43

My favorite BDC is HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (NYSE: HASI)--which dominates the energy efficiency niche, pays a generous (5% plus) and growing dividend that's well covered by sustainable earnings and is likely to squeeze shorts in 2026--as the company shows it can continue to grow despite the phase out of tax credits. One measure of success--access to private capital continues to improve with partner KKR and HASI committing an additional $1 bil to the ":CarbonCount Holdings 1" venture.

I'm generally wary of most BDCs because they're basically a black box--unless management is very clear about what they're investing in, you're not going to know what's inside. And in many cases, BDCs have to pursue less creditworthy opportunities and have a higher cost of capital than traditional sources of investment and especially private capital. HASI is an exception but it has to make its case to me every quarter that its' still on track.

Robert

5:47

Any future for GEL in the way of movement. It just seems to sit there.

Roger Conrad

5:47

Hi Robert. I think Genesis is mostly likely to wind up a takeover target. The assets are solid and now with the soda ash assets sold, the company is focused for the first time in over a decade. There was a question whether they would maintain their dividend after paring operations back to midstream. And they've answered that, cutting debt and boosting coverage. We currently rate it a buy in our MLPs and Midstream coverage universe on a dip to 14 or lower. But we may raise that buy target going forward in 2026 depending on improvement in operating numbers.

Guest

5:47

Apologize if this question already handled. What is going on with VLO and similar refiners in the near term? VLO was $180 now in a matter of days its close to $160.

Elliott Gue

5:47

VLO has been one of the top performers in energy this year -- still up 36.2% year-to-date 2025 despite the recent dip. A 12% correction and a bit of profit taking for this name it pretty normal, especially with energy as a whole pulling back the past few days.

5:50

I understand VLO is the top refiner play, but how does PBF compare if we get a recovery? PBF stock has been crushed and even as VLO recovers, PBF stock seems to still have problems recovering. I have considered taking my losses in PBF and adding to my already existing VLO position but not sure if that is wise. Thanks!

Elliott Gue

5:50

Because of its focus on the California market specifically, PBF is going to be more volatile than VLO by a large margin. If refining margins remain strong into next year, especially through the summer, I'd expect PBF to outperform. So, it's more of a trading vehicle. VLO is better if you're looking for a longer term refinery to hold for long-term total returns. That's why VLO is the only refiner we recommend in the Energy & Income Advisor model portfolio.

Guest

5:55

2nd question. This is somewhat duplicative of an earlier question. Have been considering adding another small chunk of VG. Your evaluation of their 2026 operating results. Jim T

Elliott Gue

5:55

We're not recommending the purchase of any additional shares of VG at this time.

Operationally they're fine and have been bringing their new LNG export terminals onstream ahead of plan. The problem is this arbitration headlines -- they won an arbitration against SHEL, lost one to BP and settled one for an immaterial sum with a Japanese firm. SHEL is now trying to get a US court to overturn their loss at arbitration. Generally, we think that the stock has priced in a worst case type scenario. But until the market gets some certainty around the likely size and timing of any awards, the stock will probably drift around near recent lows. We'd like to see some news and a rally in the stock off these lows before recommending the purchase of more.

Mari

5:56

Is VG still a hold/buy? It keeps going down … Thanks

Elliott Gue

5:56

I just answered a question on VG above -- simply put, we're maintaining it in the portfolio for now. We'll need to see some positive news on VG's arbitrations and an upside reaction in the stock before adding to the position in the model portfolio.

Dan N

5:58

Hi Roger- headlines today saying EIX failed to maintain/fully decommission old transmission lines leading to the Eaton fire. Headline is clearly trying to blame company, but wouldn’t this work need investment approval by regulators? Is it negligence, or is there an argument about who’s being cheap here? Or is a fire being started by mostly decommissioned lines so unlikely that no one thought this was remotely a concern?

Roger Conrad

5:58

Hi Dan. Edison shares are actually up a little today on a decent day for utilities. And last week, the company announced a 5.9% dividend increase for next year. Those are both pretty good signs for the company. So is the fact that it's settled 1,551 claims related to the Eaton Fire already, which will be paid out of the state's Wildfire Recovery Fund.

Edison has said for some months now that investigators had not identified any other ignition source for Eaton. And it's warned that meant its equipment would probably be found to play some role. The issue has always been whether the company was negligent--which requires an entirely different determination with a much higher bar. And you're absolutely right the utility needs commission approval for any and all spending.

But even if there is fault and some degree of negligence found, Edison's total liability is now capped at $4 bil under state law. That will almost certainly be securitized and so spread out. And the hit is more than reflected in the stock drop.

Roger Conrad

5:59

Bottom line--i think Edison is still working through this and we'll see a return to an $80 plus share price in the next 12 months as their actual liability is clarified.

John P

5:59

Good afternoon Roger and Elliot,

Roger Conrad

5:59

Hi John. Welcome to the chat.

Frank

6:05

I like investing in out of favor industries, and oil/gas right now fits the bill, and within oil & gas, the Canadian companies are the out of favor of the out of favors. I know you have a list of them but would like to see more in depth write-ups about them. I get the feeling that they're more attractive than their U.S. brethren. Thanks

Roger Conrad

6:05

Thanks for the suggestion Frank. Most of the stocks in our Canada and Australia coverage universe have actually produced decent returns this year--though they have a lot of ground to make up with their US peers.

One key catalyst is Ottawa and Alberta are no longer at war but are cooperating on policy. And that's broken the logjam blocking Canada's ability to export energy to Asia--where it has an estimated 7 day advantage in terms of transportation vs the US Gulf Coast.

The US is still the main market and will be for the foreseeable future--current trade tensions notwithstanding. But exporting to Asia is a huge marginal boost for profitability. We have a number of bets already in the Model: OVV, PBA, TRP--even ET after SUN's acquisition of Parkland. But this is a long overlooked area that should start to get its due in 2026.

Rick P

6:15

Any company specific news driving the weakness in VZ stock recently (same for T)? Thanks, Rick

Roger Conrad

6:15

Hi Rick. All of the US Big 3--AT&T, Verizon and especially T-Mobile US--have been weaker since EchoStar announced it was selling spectrum to SpaceX.

EchoStar, of course, never emerged as a viable fourth national wireless competitor despite enormous investment. But there still seems to be concern that SpaceX will try to succeed where it failed after buying the spectrum.

My view is it's extremely unlikely SpaceX would make a major investment in what's fundamentally a solid margin business with 3 competitors but a decidedly low margin one with 4--especially when the spectrum can be used more profitably. Meanwhile, all three have affirmed guidance and it's clear they're taking broadband market share at an accelerating rate.

I like all three stocks, though the best way to buy into T-Mobile is through parent Deutsche Telekom. VZ and T are still in the black this year BTW.

Guest

6:22

Am considering whether tobuy more AES and/or AQN. What is your outlook for them over the next year?

Roger Conrad

6:22

AES is up a little less than 13% year to date as of today's close. AQN is up 46% plus, so they'll be coming off a strong year. But I think they're both still very cheap stocks with earnings and growth profiles that stronger than current prices would suggest.

The key for AES will be proving resilience in results and that it doesn't face a growth cliff with tax credits phasing out. AQN needs to meet its earnings guidance, which means reducing rate lag. But it's shown strong progress getting that done. And we could actually see a return to dividend growth by late next year. I think AES should rebound to the mid to high teens at least, while AQN should approach double digits.

Susan P

6:28

Energy Transfer announced the "suspension of development of Lake Charles LNG" citing capital discipline. Any reaction by either of you--good or bad. It highlights your points about capital discipline. Apologies if your current EIA covers this news. Importantly, I want to wish you both (and Sherry) a rewarding, healthy Christmas & New Year, with thanks for all your hard work in 2025.

Roger Conrad

6:28

Thank you Susan and we wish you a Merry Christmas/Happy New Year as well!

The language ET management used is that it has many more opportunities to invest for a higher return with less risk than completing the Lake Charles LNG export facility. It didn't close the door on revisiting the project but said it wanted another investment partner.

I like capital discipline. And there is a lot of LNG capacity being built right now on the Gulf Coast and elsewhere. These are typically multi year projects that cost billions of dollars--so capital must be spent well in advance of revenue. I like how most companies are lining up financing, gas supply and off takers before doing anything themselves.

But so long as ET continues to find ways to grow without that kind of capital commitment and risk, I'll consider it a major plus. The latest deal is the USAC affiliate's acquisition of J-W to add compression expansion--that will raise ET's income without having to issue any equity or debt.

Elliott Gue

6:30

A lot of questions on tonight's chat regarding precious metals and related stocks like the gold mining, royalty and streaming firms. Long term, I think silver and gold prices have significant additional upside. I wrote a back in September for Creating Wealth and Free Market Speculator outlining my case for $6,000 gold and $100+ silver. However, please understand that we've been bullish on silver and precious metals for some time now, including for a long period back in 2024 and again early this year when silver, in particular, was decidedly out-of-favor. That's no longer the case and these commodities are extended on the charts -- the weekly relative strength index on Silver for example is currently at 86+ and the monthly chart RSI is 88+ -- that's the most overbought silver has been since 1974, 1980 and 2011. 1974 wasn't the ultimate top of the bull market, but silver traded sideways for 4 years from early1974 to early 1978 and both 1980 and 2011 were significant tops. My point is that at some point

-- Perhaps soon – these markets are going to take a breather and there could be significant corrections. I’m talking 20 to 30% along the way to the ultimate bull market peak. So, while I am still bullish and we’re still recommending exposure to gold, silver and precious metals mining stocks, both in long-term services like Creating Wealth/Free Market Speculator I think a word of caution is also in order. This trend is NOT new and we have large gains – triple digit gains in some cases – built up in a lot of these recommendations. My inclination remains more on the side of taking profits on major rallies rather than adding aggressively to positions that are up 50 to 100% in some case in a matter of just a few weeks this year. Please be war of the FOMO (fear of missing out). I suspect that other commodity groups – energy and some other metals being prime examples -- could take the leadership reins from precious metals next year.

Sal

6:34

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year Gentlemen First let me say I also have been with you since the personal finance days . Its been great I learned some hard lessons ( in the beginning) not following your advise ,but since grown my retirement fund exceptionally well thru the years Thanks . I believe Elliott mentioned he was expecting NEM to reach $100 dollars here we are . Is it time to take some profits .

Roger Conrad

6:34

Thanks Sal and Happy New Year and Merry Christmas to you as well. We certainly appreciate your loyalty and I hope you'll stick with us for years to come--continuing grow your retirement funds!

Yes, I have a position in Newmont Corp in the CUI Plus/Dividends Premium portfolio that's been a huge winner this year--up 171% plus). I did sell 1/3rd of the position earlier this year close to this price and now that we're back there again (close $99 plus today), I'm considering selling another third.

I like the company and the Newcrest acquisition is really paying off for them. But a good piece of these gains are due to elevated inflation expectations pushing up gold prices. And my view is those are likely to cool a bit as we get more data and after a Fed chairman perceived as independent is appointed--which I think is likely.

But there will be more to come in CUI Plus/Dividends Plus if I do advise this. It's quite possible inflation expectations go even higher from here.

Fred L

6:38

What is your outlook for TYG? Regarding your expectations for midstream, do you think TYG will return to the lofty values of the last cycle?

Roger Conrad

6:38

Hi Fred. We believe this energy upcycle still has a while to run. And midstream is usually among the last to peak--as that tends to happen when producers turn on the taps to take advantage of higher oil and gas prices. Midstream and the Tortoise Energy fund have already come a very long from the 2020 low. It's still made money this year (around 8% year to date). And it pays a nice dividend. But the peak is still down the road.

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