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2016 World Series Game 1 Live Blog
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Stephen
10:43
Whew
Dave Cameron
10:43
Joe Maddon is a good manager, but I don't know about his choices today.
Paul Swydan
10:43
Can you imagine the meltdown Miller and Cleveland would have had if that had been called a check swing?
Dave Cameron
10:43
You have to hit Soler there.
Drew
10:44
Do they let Miller go more than 1?
Dave Cameron
10:44
Yep. Miller for the 8th, Allen for the 9th.
Netflix and Rich Hill
10:45
Does the LI take into account the count, too?
Bork jr
10:45
Soler really struggle s against breaking stuff, but that's the time to use him or don't roster him
Dave Cameron
10:45
Yeah, if you're not going to PH him for your 3rd string C against an LHP with the bases loaded down 3, you're not ever going to use him.
Paul Swydan
10:45
I don't think LI takes the count into effect, but I'm not 100% sure. Dave?
Dave Cameron
10:45
It does not.
Re
10:45
Soler and Ross were very similar hitters this year and it's not like Soler has any kind of history to fall back on
Dave Cameron
10:46
Ross hitting a few homers in 150 PAs doesn't change the fact that he can't hit.
We have an army of data on this.
Paul Swydan
10:46
Last three years wRC+
Ross - 71, 34, 101
Dave Cameron
10:46
34!
Paul Swydan
10:46
Soler - 148, 96, 106
Pretty sure Soler is better.
Dave Cameron
10:46
Steamer's projected wRC+ for Ross: 71
Tom
10:47
so glad Maddon didnt get validated for that decision with a walk
dan
10:47
Honestly curious - do you guys think Maddon is a bad in-game manager? Seems like you've been quick to call him out today.
filihok
10:47
Ross 148 wRC+ vs lefties last 3 seasons
Dave Cameron
10:47
That's exactly how platoon splits should not be used.
Paul Swydan
10:48
Joe Maddon is a good manager who likes to do things against the grain, seemingly just for the fun of it. They frequently don't work out for him, yet people tend to give him a pass because overall he's good.
Dave Cameron
10:48
No, I don't think Maddon is a bad manager. He's excellent. I just am not going to assume everything he does is correct.
Appeals to authority aren't any more valid just because the authority is a smart authority.
Paul Swydan
10:48
Also, don't feel bad filihok, Dave was just lecturing me about this platoon splits thing the other day.
Ryan
10:49
Joe Maddon is prob an okay manager, but let's be honest here: Tito >> Maddon
AJS
10:49
Yeah, explain the platoon splits thing please?
Dave Cameron
David
10:49
Don't get me wrong, I'd go with Soler too, but it is true that he can't hit sliders.
Dave Cameron
10:50
The short summary: what a batter does against same-handed pitchers is good information, and you know less if you throw it away and only focus on what he does against opposite-handed pitching. The bigger sample of what he does against all pitchers (with a standard platoon adjustment) is a better predictor of future platoon performance than past platoon performance.
Paul Swydan
10:50
Sliders aren't even his worst pitch. Change-ups are. Also, Miller doesn't throw ALL sliders. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14221&position=OF#pfxpitchvaluesc
Poonrod
10:51
Someone is pulling for the Cubs. Someone's name is Dave cameron
Dave Cameron
10:52
Don't criticize Maddon for stuff like this, and we're biased towards stats-friendly teams and treat them differently. Do criticize them for stuff we criticize everyone for, and we're rooting for them. Okay.
Paul Swydan
10:52
Also, for his career Ross' wSL/C is basically the same as Soler's. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1551&position=C#pfxpitchvaluesc
alpha
10:53
Ross is no longer catching. That was stupid
Paul Swydan
10:53
And most of the positive hitting against sliders for Ross came last decade.
peachesnnuts
10:53
The pinch hit penalty comes in to play in that decision as well
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