JotCast | 2023-24 Top 50 Free Agents Live Chat With Tim Dierkes

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Tim Dierkes

9:03

I would be very surprised if one team signs Bellinger and Yamamoto.

This does happen occasionally (Seager/Semien), but I do not expect it.

Spaghetti Marinera

9:03

Does Ohtani set the market, and thus freeze it until his outcome is known? Or is he seen as an outlier that won’t influence attempts to sign other players high on your Top 50 list?

Tim Dierkes

9:04

I think if you are totally serious about Ohtani, it would A) hold up your pursuit of any DH-first player and B) potentially hold up your pursuit of another $100MM+ player.

Burke

9:05

Which starter best fits into the Dbacks current timeline and what type of contract would that look like?

Tim Dierkes

9:06

They're a win-now team, so any top starter fits their timeline. I don't generally view Hazen as a free agent risk-taker, but it's probably time to roll the dice more than usual.

The guy that I think most teams see as a better investment is Yamamoto, since he's 25.

Adam

9:06

That’s cheap for Nola. Look at Jordan Zimmermann with Detroit years ago. Nola would have to outdo that.

Tim Dierkes

9:07

In terms of Nola topping $110MM, I think everyone expects that. We are slightly on the lower side with Nola and $150MM. We stopped there given that two of his last three seasons have had a 4.46 or worse ERA. We have been saying that he kind of slid down to $150MM and Montgomery ascended up to it.

That said, I find $175MM or something for Nola to be reasonable.

Bellinger--Cubs

9:08

None of you had Bellinger to the Cubs.....which is more likely reason---1) with Cubs he is almost strictly a first baseman or 2) Cubs will not give him 12 years?

Tim Dierkes

9:08

For me it's that the Cubs won't give him the total amount of money he wants, which I'm guessing is $250MM or more. I do consider PCA's presence a mitigating factor as well.

9:09

The 12 years thing is just an example of lowering the AAV on a young player. I don't feel strongly that it should be 12 and not 9 or something.

Lieutenant Dansby

9:09

What makes you think Teoscar Hernandez gets 4yr/$80m when the Mariners didn’t even feel comfortable offering him 1yr/$20m?

Tim Dierkes

9:10

He's a guy where I think he has the best chance of doing a two-year contract or something and making our pick be quite wrong. We basically gave him Schwarber money. He hit pretty well for about 4 months this year, the market for bats is terrible, his Statcast is strong, and he's a better defender than Schwarber I think. That said it was not a good year and there's risk that other teams feel like the Mariners.

9:11

It's also possible the Mariners just didn't want to lock in with him at 20 mil in November as they try to increase contract, as Dipoto said.

Mark

9:11

Who do you think the Dodgers should target to go along with Ohtani. The Dodgers need more top end pitchers.

Tim Dierkes

9:12

They would seem to be a good match for Yamamoto. Otherwise I picture guys like Gray, Imanaga, Stroman.

Snell, Nola, and Monty don't seem like Friedman's style, but it's not crazy or anything.

Custard Creams are the Biscuit For Me

9:12

The Giants are going to massively overpay in order to get a big name, aren’t they? Zaidi basically said so.

Tim Dierkes

9:13

Yes, I think we all expect the Giants to finally succeed in landing a star player. That apparent desperation is one factor in us putting really big numbers on Ohtani, Bellinger, Yamamoto, Snell, and Matt Chapman.

Chapman is another one where I see higher risk of being wrong on the contract. It was a weird season.

Cashgod

9:13

Ok you guys were playing around with the 12-year Bellinger prediction, right?

Tim Dierkes

9:14

We have taken a lot of flak for the 12 year thing. I think I have explained that choice pretty well in the chat. I actually think 13 years is in play [ducks]

The idea is that a $22-23MM AAV for Belli would be quite low. Under the old model Anthony Rendon got $35MM a year.

Anthony was saying that if we'd done 10/260 or something people would have found it more palatable.

MikeD

9:15

I know the team debated contracts back and forth before publication, but would you care to share the biggest disagreements within the group?

Tim Dierkes

9:15

Nola, Sonny Gray, Teoscar come to mind.

9:16

I came in pretty low on Candelario and Gurriel, but I wouldn't call it a disagreement because the other guys convinced me pretty easily that they will get more than three years.

Matt

9:16

Tim, huge props and thanks to you and your crew. MLBTradeRumors keeps me going all year. Your writers are awesome. I am so grateful for the content. Keep up the great work!!

Tim Dierkes

9:16

Nice to hear, thanks!

Akiva

9:16

Most Top 50 FA predictions, including MLBTR, seem to imagine subdued Mets activity, or even sitting out free agency entirely. How is this squared up with Steve Cohen being Steve Cohen and do you think Stearns, in general, is taking things slow in Queens?

Tim Dierkes

9:17

I feel like Scherzer and Eppler gave away the plan a little bit, and Cohen didn't deny it. I know that Stearns also seemed to walk it back slightly.

I think Cohen is capable of signing any free agent. I also think he's going to look hard at Ohtani and Yamamoto. Ohtani because he's a generational player you may only get one shot at, and Yamamoto because he makes sense even if you're taking a slight step back.

9:18

I like them less for Snell, Nola, and Montgomery.

What if Belli Bombs?

9:18

How risky is it to sign Cody Bellinger to a 12 year deal? Especially in light of the underlying stat cast metrics, is one resurgent year really enough proof for teams to shell out $22-$30 million a year for more than a decade?

Tim Dierkes

9:19

As I've said I'm more focused on the total. I do think giving Bellinger $264MM is a risky investment, but that's true of most major free agents.

I should also note that Anthony was more in the $240MM range. I gave that a lot of thought and could have dropped to that, but that was my floor.

9:20

I have since learned that most people do not think Belli gets anywhere close to this! That's the fun of it. We took our shot. I think since a lot of people are around $150MM on Belli, $210MM is kind of a dividing line.

Bellinger contract

Over $210MM (30.3% | 167 votes)

Under $210MM (69.7% | 385 votes)

Total Votes: 552

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