JotCast | 2023-24 Top 50 Free Agents Live Chat With Tim Dierkes

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Phils

9:20

I’m irate as a Phillies fan. You all have Nola leaving and no big replacement in FA. What do you think the Phillies are going to do in their rotation?

Tim Dierkes

9:21

You really gotta look more closely at our team predictions my guy. And I do hope you're not actually irate about them.

Also, a note on the team predictions. They are not our primary focus when we do the list. We are each just presenting what we feel is a plausible scenario at that moment in time. It's not a statement about what each team is going to do in the way some people interpret it as.

9:22

I picked the Phillies for Snell, so dunno what this guy is talking about, but I find them plausible for any FA starter. Same for the Red Sox

Jerry Seinfeld

9:22

Realistically, Steve Cohen isn't likely to roll into the season with Senga, Quintana and a bag of chop shop parts. The top 50 doesn't have much coming to Queens for SPs. What is the likely outcome there?

Tim Dierkes

9:22

My guess is that they look at shorter-term deals to fill out the rotation - Giolito, Maeda, guys like that. This is really just a guess.

MikeD

9:22

Put the players old team in the contest? Thought I read a few years back that 90% of players who file for free agency don’t return to their former teams.

Tim Dierkes

9:23

I'd have to run some numbers, but I think you'd typically get around 10 correct by just putting all old teams. Getting 10 right can be hard to do.

Guest

9:23

I don’t see anybody predicting Cody Bellinger to Texas. He has a lot of relationships on that team. Am I missing anything?

Tim Dierkes

9:24

I think we generally find that match to be plausible. They also seem to have a healthy relationship with Boras. They would probably exhaust the Ohtani possibility first.

Jeff Nooney

9:24

Who gets the biggest contract this offseason from the Mariners?

Tim Dierkes

9:24

I learned something recently from our contract tracker. Jerry Dipoto as Mariners GM has never signed a position player to a multiyear deal or spent more than the $7MM he gave to AJ Pollock.

9:25

That led me to not put the Mariners on a FA position player. Then I looked at their rotation and seeming ability to create great RPs out of nothing, and I did not give them any top 50 FA. He's called Trader Jerry for a reason.

That said: sometimes it is a mistake to assume that since a GM has always done something or avoided something, that will always continue.

9:26

My example is Hoyer and his thing with only signing RP to cheap one-year deals. That failed last winter and it's not crazy to think he'll consider multiyear RPs.

DbacksFan

9:26

Feels like you guys just plugged big market team names into 90% of the players. Teams that were in the hunt down the stretch have money to spend, specifically my Dbacks. Think they will shoot higher than Seth Lugo.

Tim Dierkes

9:26

I had the DBacks as my Sonny Gray pick for a while, but went with the Braves.

9:28

Mike Hazen's lone FA splurge in seven years was MadBum, which was a total disaster. And that was $85MM, so nowhere close to our Snell/Nola/Monty range.

But these guys just went to the WS. I agree that the big names are at least on the table here.

Dgrfns

9:28

I second the idea of a top 25 trade candidates. I see the Dodgers being big in the trade market. They have players in the minors that need to play.....

Tim Dierkes

9:29

That kind of list pairs well with the top 50 FA list, because there are no team picks on the list that would satisfy every fanbase.

If I had a time machine, a fun exercise would be to go back and make team picks that were 100% correct, and then get lambasted for not giving enough to certain teams.

Garver

9:29

Regarding the Mitch Garver market, is he moreso a catcher or a DH?

Tim Dierkes

9:30

In my mind, he's more likely to stay healthy if you don't catch him at all or limit him to a third-catcher type situation.

Snell v. Nola

9:30

I feel like I am taking crazy pills. I understand Nola was wildly inconsistent this year. But Snell feels like Jekyll and Hyde. Why would someone pay premium money to a pitcher who is not able able to pitch past the 5th inning?

Tim Dierkes

9:30

One thing I want to note is that none of these contract predictions are endorsements. They are just what we think is most likely to happen.

9:31

Snell's 5.625 innings per start this year seems fine for 2023. Nola was at 6.05, that's notably better but I'm not sure it's incredibly important either.

In terms of Snell's risk at our contract projection: I think it's very high.

Guest

9:31

Why do you have Lee going to San Diego when it seems they are not looking to spend any money

Tim Dierkes

9:32

My thought is that they seem to scout KBO heavily, they had a big KBO success, the AAV is low, and there's some chance they unload $33MM in Soto (and possibly others).

9:32

Is it just me, or does this year’s top 50 seem lighter on talent than previous off seasons? It would be interesting to see how this crop compares in value stats to past seasons

Tim Dierkes

9:33

I think the position player market is terrible. That played into the contracts for some mid-tier guys. Sometimes that bears out and sometimes teams shrug and still don't pay 'em.

Guest

9:33

Mets could make for a super bullpen say if they went to sign Phil Maton, Matt Moore and convince Craig Kimbral to be the 8th inning set up for Diaz

Tim Dierkes

9:33

Ya know, I wouldn't call that a super bullpen.

Chat GPT

9:33

In the twilight of the baseball year, When autumn's whispers fill the air, MLBTraderumors.com unveils its grand decree, The Top 50 Free Agent Predictions, wild and free.
Excitement brews, a fevered pitch, As fans delve into each tantalizing glitch, Rumors swirl, hopes take flight, As teams strategize in the cold, dark night. From sluggers to aces, the list unfurls, In anticipation, the baseball world twirls, Contracts, negotiations, a thrilling dance, Eager hearts await the offseason's chance. Speculations rise, discussions ignite, With every signing, dreams take flight, The hot stove season ablaze with cheer, As the MLB landscape shifts, crystal clear. So here we stand, on this offseason eve, Where hope and speculation interweave, MLBTraderumors.com's list, a catalyst of glee, For the grand game's fans, in joy and spree.

Tim Dierkes

9:34

I actually think this is the only useful thing I've seen Chat GPT do, write poems about random things better than I could.

Guest

9:34

I like Imanaga to Arizona. Thoughts?

Tim Dierkes

9:34

Forgot to name him in the previous question, but absolutely.

Isaac

9:34

Most likely reunion: Montgomery/Flaherty to STL, E-Rod to BOS, or other?

Tim Dierkes

9:35

I think Monty to STL, but I find E-Rod going back reasonable enough. I forget how many GMs later they are since he left...

Connecting…