JotCast | 2023-24 Top 50 Free Agents Live Chat With Tim Dierkes

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Joey

9:35

Last year you sent MLBTR premium subscribers some email correspondence about the debates you had over certain players in the top 10. Will you do the same this year?

Tim Dierkes

9:35

That's a fun idea. We should do that, yes.

Steve Adams missed his team picks because he was on paternity leave for all of October. So this week we're gonna send out his picks for subs.

Minasian

9:35

Would Tim Anderson fit halos, put him at 2B. How much would it cost?

Tim Dierkes

9:36

Yes, that match seems reasonable enough. Maybe 10-12 mil. I have wondered if he might seek a smaller market though, get out of the spotlight a bit.

Nick

9:36

I can’t believe none of you picked show Ohtani to go to the Rangers. I think they blow everybody out of the water with some ridiculous amount of money.

Tim Dierkes

9:36

I think Steve might be thinking about making that pick.

Joe

9:36

Do you see the Orioles finally pulling the trigger and getting a top of the rotation arm to put us over the top? I would be thrilled with Gray or Montgomery.

Tim Dierkes

9:37

For the last few years they have been a wild card because they have soooo much potential payroll space. Angelos' comments have not implied big spending but they could fold Sonny Gray onto the payroll with zero issue. We didn't predict such a thing, prob because we are stuck on Elias not doing anything in FA yet.

WPB

9:37

With a weak knee and a year off, it's sad that Hoskins will probably have to take a prove it contract in a prime year. Any chance at all some team takes a chance and gives him a big contract?

Tim Dierkes

9:38

Certainly a point of debate, I think it comes down to the player's preference. There's straight one year, there's two years with an opt-out (our choice), and then there's max out for 3 or 4 years. Any of these would make sense to me.

Dave

9:38

What would be the most surprising—but also plausible—signing you could see the Nationals making?

Tim Dierkes

9:40

One scenario I've played around with in my head is them signing Bellinger. He's young, they have a strong Boras relationship, and as I've said it could be spread long to have a low AAV. I don't expect this, but it doesn't seem insane to me and would shock the baseball world.

Guest

9:40

Why would Tim Anderson be worth 10 Million after the year he had?

Tim Dierkes

9:40

Past success. Guy played around a 4-WAR pace as recently as last year. There should be some perceived upside on a one-year deal.

Totally a guess

9:40

What one prediction do you feel most confident in?

Tim Dierkes

9:41

Interesting question. To be totally honest I am never confident in predictions, there's an inherent uncertainty in it. I think I feel the best about Yamamoto getting $200MM.

Ross Atkins

9:42

Hey Tim, boss is breathing down my neck. What are some impact moves you think I should make? Do I go all in for Ohtani? Do I move some of our prospect depth for Soto? Or do I get multiple pieces (Jeimer, Hader, Taylor, Pederson)

Tim Dierkes

9:43

I haven't figured the Blue Jays out yet. Belli aside, the FA market doesn't seem to match up with their seeming need for an OF or 3B, particularly if they are over Matt Chapman. And the pitching staff looks pretty solid. So I do lean toward the "spread it around" concept.

One thing I am not sure of is how much a team would have to overpay Ohtani to get him to join a team that he does not prefer geographically. A matter of $100MM?

Jeff

9:44

Do you see Hoskins as a match for the Nats. Need a power bat for first base and he needs a pillow contact.

Tim Dierkes

9:44

Sure, solid fit. Nats might have to overpay in the case of a sought-after FA.

Among Us

9:44

Have you ever heard of MLB players or execs reading these chats? And do you think your top 50 list has ever effected the free agent market?

Tim Dierkes

9:45

I know execs, agents, and players read the site in general, so I assume some poke their heads into chats.

I have not heard of an instance of us affecting the FA market. It's generally a bidding war, so our guesses shouldn't matter.

GBS42

9:45

Is the Bellinger prediction based on input from multiple team sources or other knowledgeable insiders? It just seems so long and so expensive.

Tim Dierkes

9:46

No. And you might disagree with this, but we do not ask around for opinions from execs and agents. Not because we're smarter, but because I believe no one actually knows and if you invite too many cooks into the kitchen it does not help.

9:47

We were $91MM short on Xander Bogaerts last winter, but our $189MM projection I think matched up well with the consensus, so nobody really called us out on it.

But I do take huge whiffs like that seriously and made a plan to A) focus on the total and not the years and B) be aggressive on Boras clients because (like it or not) that company often exceeds expectations.

9:48

Since $264MM deeeeeeefinitely does not match consensus - like at all - we're gonna hear about it if he signs for $150MM.

9:49

But if you wanted consensus, you could check out FanGraphs' contract crowdsourcing (which is cool) or average everyone's number. Putting our neck out there even if we look stupid is more fun, right?

TxDude

9:49

Which players gets the “Bogaerts” contract this year? The shockingly huge overpay

Tim Dierkes

9:49

I think Bellinger is my guy here and I gave Bogaerts a lot of thought as a comp (I see some similarities, some differences).

9:50

There is a school of thought that the Bogaerts contract was one team being nuts and will not be repeated. That is valid. I don't know what the runner-up bid.

edward

9:50

what do you mean MLBTR doesnt have an effect on the market? Ross Atkins literally just asked a question and you answered !

Backing Y'all Up a Bit

9:50

Just for your sake: I don't think 12 years for Bellinger is insane, especially with contracts exploding the way they are. Did most predict Bogaerts to go for the years he went? Also, this market for hitters is a lot more thin. I think a couple teams will get caught up in a bidding war and offering that extra year or two

Tim Dierkes

9:51

Hey that's nice. And 31% of you are past my Belli midpoint number, so there are some people out there thinking this goes big.

I knew the number might be perceived as high, but actually didn't have a feel for how much people would dislike it until after we published. That can be scary but then I step back and think about how cool it is to do this for a living!

Good Vibes Only

9:52

Hey Tim! Thank you for all the awesome content from you and team. Did the plan for additional Shohei-FA content fizzle or has there been virtually no news to report as he appears to be in stealth mode?

Tim Dierkes

9:53

I think there was less quality Japanese media Ohtani content out there to translate and summarize than I expected. I thought maybe he'd do some Japanese press interviews and stuff we could grab.

Connecting…