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2023 FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:01
Good morning from blustery Tempe, AZ. Let's get right to it, there's still plenty to do.
Max
12:02
Where does Jordan Walker play on the field at the big league level and could he make the Opening Day squad?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Right field and eventually first base. Probably doesn't make the team out of camp, they have too many other options, Walker isn't currently on the 40-man, and he's relatively new to the outfield.
Max
12:03
What is Kumar Rocker at this point?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
For me, a pretty good reliever. He was something like 60th on the 2022 draft ranking. 2022 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs
JP
12:04
All right -- let's address the elephant in the room. Pfaadt over GRod making waves. Obviously the gap is pretty thin between both given their placement. But is this more because of GRod concerns or Pfaadt is just that good?
Oaktown Blues
12:05
Are you out on Luis Medina at this point?
Tess Taruskin
12:05
Medina's command has been a concern for a while and got worse in '22 (22 Ks in 20 innings at Double-A).
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Sorry, my page crashed....
AZFan
12:06
How did Gabriel Moreno fall out of the top 100 entirely?
Tess Taruskin
12:06
Easy: he graduated.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
He graduated
12:07
Grayson v Pfaadt: More about liking Pfaadt a lot, though has something to do with the direction the arrow is pointing for both. Pfaadt picked up spin across the board, Grayson lost two ticks of velo and 200rpm across the board, Pfaadt's delivery and athleticism more typical for a starter than Grayson.
Jackson
12:07
How likely do you think it is that either Ethan Salas or Felnin Celesten make the top 100 in the next two years?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
Salas' BPs in AZ have been crazy enough that we talked about it already this year
Nick
12:08
Rickey Tiedemann - Curious on why you have his ETA set at 2026? Buzz is that he has a chance to appear as soon as this year. Thanks!
Tess Taruskin
12:08
The ETAs correspond to when guys need to be added to the 40-man for Rule 5 protection, rather than expected MLB debut.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
That should have been manually pushed at least a year, though
Sean
12:09
Ely de la Cruz has such a tantalizing combination of speed and power, and looks like a future star.  From a player development perspective, does it make sense for the Reds to give him a chance to play at the big league level this year given that they are unlikely to contend?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Maybe at the very end. His swing decisions and defense are still pretty spotty.
Jason
12:13
You all seem to be the lowest on Evan Carter. Do you really think there is no chance for him to add more power? Reports are his exit velocity is already above average, so he may need to just find more loft (which admittedly may be difficult with his current swing)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
I wouldn't say there's no chance but he doesn't have the look of a guy who adds it, not athletically anyway. There was not universal support from scouting/executive sources to include him, in fact it was pretty split, lots of others think he's a low-impact guy.
And his exits velos are not above avg. His max exit on the year was average, everything else (his avg, hard hit rate, etc.) were all below
Matt
12:14
What factors led to projecting Logan O’Hoppe with 40 game power?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
His amount of raw power and the typical reduction catchers get from their relative lack of playing time and frequency of injury. Reading and Madison probably helped him hit that many homers, too.
Larger Bases
12:15
There are a number of players, like Jose Salas, that have fallen off the list from last year. Has your opinion on guys like Salas changed meaningfully or has he slipped from a 50 FV to a 45+ FV?
Thomas
12:15
Yours is the only list I've seen with Addison Barger ranked so high, let alone the middle of the list. What are you seeing that others don't?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
Salas is just a 45 now, Josh Rojas type. Came away from AFL thinking he wasn't a lock SS.
Tess Taruskin
12:15
(Re: Barger) Lefty bat-speed and defensive utility with a strong arm. There's huge upside there, and the fact that he brought it to a level where he wasn't the oldest on the field.
Eric A Longenhagen
bk
12:15
Is it pronounced Barger, or Barger?
Tess Taruskin
12:16
Barger, like how he barged onto the list this year.
Brennen Davis' Mom
12:16
How close was Brennen Davis to making the list despite the awful 2022?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Close, the injuries and hit tool risk were just too substantial but we still love the person and power.
Sky
12:18
When do you see Perez and Painter debuting in MLB? More broadly, which pitchers do you think will provide their teams the most production in 2023?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
I think Painter might kick down the door straight outta camp but both only threw like 70 innings last year so that might cap what they do in 2023.
Kate
12:21
Has there been any change in the way you are evaluating hit tools?  Felt like there were a lot of major downward revisions on hit tools (including a lot of guys who previously had 55 or above).
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Mostly it's been the idea that hitting big league stuff is so hard that guys tend to get worse as they climb the ladder. The guys who are in the big leagues for a long time almost always are because they can really hit, as you dive into the swing and miss data lots of minor leaguers who we consider good prospects are already swinging and missing more than career big leaguers.
Jeremy
12:21
Buest guess for top MLB prospect in 2024?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Wood then Bleis
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