You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
2023 FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects Chat
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
Pug
12:23
No Gavin Cross? too many K's? too old for the level? not enough PA's to change initial report? Seems strange to leave off a guy just demolishing A ball.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
Just think he's more a bankable platoon corner guy than he is a true everyday CF or anything like that. Still like him, had him in the middle of round 1 and thought he was a fine draft pick, we just don't tend to 50 corner bats until they're basically ready. He should have destroyed A-ball, the ACC is arguably better.
Kate
12:25
The 35 hit tool project for Carson Williams is pretty scary.  Obviously he still has a path to being a useful player given his other skills, but what are the odds of a guy like this actually making some improvements to get to like a 45 hit tool?  With guys who struggle this much with contact, is there kind of a ceiling of how far we can actually expect them to improve?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
I think it depends, in Williams' case were talking about a guy who has only focused on hitting for a little while so there's greater variance there. I also think it's fine if he has a 3 bat and gets to all that power. That's basically Willy Adames.
If i may, public tool grades tend to be too clustered in the 45-55 range and I'm hyper aware of that as I'm grading.
bob
12:29
why did you leave zack gelof off the list and what does he have to do to get on it
Tess Taruskin
12:29
Too much in-zone swing and miss. If he can tamp that down, and tap into consistent in-game power, he'll get a bump.
Eh?
12:30
Can you name one prospect that has been called underrated so many times, he's actually overrated now? And vice versa?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
Good question. I'm entirely off social media and comment sections now so that part of the zeitgeist eludes me such that it's tough to answer. Based on chat, I'd say Evan Carter is super hyped online. Obviously I like him (he's on there) just not as a 60 or anything, that's his right tail outcome. Vice versa? Any of the dudes we stayed on just to give them more time to breath as prospects, like Yorke, Leiter, Henry Davis, those guys who had tough years but who we're trying not to overreact to.
Angelus Novus
12:32
What 'type' of player do you feel that you have 'missed' on in past top 100 lists. What have you done to shine away these blindspots?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
I've tended to be light on guys who haven't played a ton in the minors and just rocket straight to MLB. Juan Soto, Michael Harris, guys like that. The way I'm drawing info often misses those guys and monitoring promotion pace and working the phone on guys who I flag is the only way to remedy that.
Missed 2020
12:32
How much of an effect is the missed 2020 season having at this point? How long to you anticipate it affecting prospects?
Tess Taruskin
12:32
There's a ton of impact across the board, especially for guys who missed time with injuries either right before or right after. There's also guys who signed later than they would've otherwise (Edgar Quero is an example), whose developmental process has an atypical shape as a result.
Eh?
12:33
If Gabriel Moreno were still eligible, around where would he rank on this year's list?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
Third
folks can read his full report here: THE BOARD | Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball
Jack
12:34
Mason Miller has some scary injury flags - is his placement on the list simply due to the quality of his stuff IF he stays healthy?
Tess Taruskin
12:34
Yes. The injuries are bad-scary, but the stuff is good-scary.
Jeff
12:35
Several prospect rankings have mentioned that the Cubs have a longer-than-usual list of players in the top 150 or so who could move up to the top 100 quickly with the right kind of year. Do you see a name or two that fits that description?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Horton, that guy might just be scratching the surface.
12:38
Yes, I'm a little scared of the hit tool because of what has happened to Tork and Kelenic, who have similarly stiff front sides during their swings. That said, Marcelo's hitting hands are so freaking sweet and he's performed to expectation so far, so he's still stuffed on here. I just didn't 6 him or Lawlar like I did Merrill due to confidence in the hit tool
Walla Walla Ron Washington
12:38
The Marcelo Mayer write-up seems very lukewarm for his high ranking, compared to some of the other names around him. Were you tempted to push him lower?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
^
Eric
12:40
No Gabriel Moreno...is that an oversight or are you just WAY out on him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
I know some publications don't use actual rookie eligibility to gate their lists but they really should, especially when it now has real-world consequences because of the CBA's rookie incentives.
Guest
12:42
Where would Brayan Bello have slotted in on the list if he hadn't just exhausted his rookie eligibility?  55 FV?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
Yes, or right behind Senga as the first 50 or so
Mcgraw45
12:42
Do prospect evaluators mostly frame prospects by their best outcomes? For example, the Samuel Zavala write up says you think "he'll be an every day corner guy in a few years."  This seems like a really good outcome for a prospect, and isn't it far likelier that he peters out in a few years? Is it just that writing "this prospect is more likely to be a fifth outfielder, but might be an every day regular someday" is less fun? Or is everyday regular more likely?
Tess Taruskin
12:42
Zavala is super young, and has demonstrated specific ways in which his profile is super mature for his age (namely his approach). Since he's not obviously hitting the same types of stumbling blocks other guys his age hit, we're more confident in his ability to avoid petering out. That said, that long runway also allows for plenty of currently unforeseen circumstances to alter his trajectory, but there's no need at this point to assume that will happen, and there are compelling reasons to think that it wont.
Mike
12:42
Is Emmanuel Rodriguez's omission from the list primarily related to health (his knee), contact problems (26% k-rate at low-A), or something else?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
the combo
Naked Mole Gaetti
12:43
How close were the KC's Gavin Cross & Maikel Garcia to the list? You see Cross as ending up in a corner and maybe aren't sold on his bat as league-average for a RF'er, I assume?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
Garcia was on in the middle of last year but his lack of physicality relative to the other 50 fv shortstops caused me to reposition him while we worked on the list. Still love him, hope he gets stronger. Prob a sweet util guy tho.
Matthew
12:44
How much consideration for a 50 FV grade did the Yankees fringe top 100 players get? (I'm thinking mostly of Everson Pereira, Austin Wells, and Spencer Jones, but if there are others you thought about I wold be interested in those too)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
Pereira I cut after Tess wrote him up (sorry Tess) because I'm just not confident that swing plays. Wells' arm makes him tough to project as a catcher and his swing has Bleday traits that kept me off him to this degree. Spenny I wanna see hit pro pitching. That system is loaded, Sweeney almost made it too.
Squirrels
12:46
I was very surprised to see James Wood at number 3. I am excited as a Nationals fan, but why do you rank him so much higher than other rankings I have seen?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
Again, tough to speak for others, I have more confidence in his hit tool than everyone but Merrill in that tier. Elly and Chourio both feel like riskier prospects with comparable ceilings to Wood. Beavis and Butthead - Wood - YouTube
Also, the Petrified Forest is legit, people should check that out.
tumtum
12:46
Junior Caminero was deemed to have excellent future power tools. How high can he climb in the rankings next year? Top 50? Top 20?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
Make better swing decisions than he did down under this winter.
Connecting…