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2024-25 Top 50 Free Agent chat with MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald
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Darragh McDonald
9:27
I would put other clubs on that list, like the Brewers, Guardians, Twins, Mariners, Rangers, Pirates. Probably the Braves too. But I do think the expected aggressiveness of the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Giants will lead to a better offseason. If teams like the O's, Tigers and Nationals dive in headfirst, that helps too.
Steve Adams
9:27
Is there an echo in here? I expect more fireworks in general, yes. Motivated buyers in the Red Sox and Mets make a big difference. The Tigers will be more aggressive.

I'd still pump the brakes on your "only six" teams, though. It depends on your definition of "major" free agents, I guess, but I can't see the Twins, Pirates, Brewers or Guards going too big (Minnesota in particular).
AA
9:27
What kind of hot stove action am I cookin' up between restructuring contcats and the surprise delining of D'Arnaud?
Tim Dierkes
9:29
For the Braves, it could be as simple as knowing they already have Sean Murphy and are ready to break in Drake Baldwin.  If they believe in Baldwin, there's not a lot of room for another $8MM catcher.  And perhaps they tried to peddle TDA and failed.  So I'm not necessarily convinced this portends an Adames signing or something, especially with the news Joe Jimenez will miss the season.
Darragh McDonald
9:29
I would take AA's shuffling as a bad sign for Atlanta's spending capacity, not a good one. It's not that he's liquidating assets for a big investment. He's looking for change under the couch cushions.
Steve Adams
9:30
I don't think those moves are a precursor to anything significant. I think it's just a matter of recognizing they're already right up against the luxury tax as a third-time payor before they do anything. It's the downside of extending all these guys when they're so young. Because most extensions are backloaded, Atlanta's bottom-line payroll on a year-to-year basis is a lot cleaner than their luxury-tax bill, which is based on the contracts' annual values.

I very much like Darragh's analogy.

I think they'll still make some additions, but I'm not buying any Willy Adames speculation and I think Max Fried's gone.
David
9:30
Do you think it is an issue that Soto will eventually be a DH and teams like the Dodgers already have a long term expensive DH?
Tim Dierkes
9:33
I can't really think of a team like the Dodgers other than just the Dodgers, who have a DH locked up for a long time.  I think that assuming the Dodgers actually want to make a run at Soto, Ohtani and his DH-ness isn't much of an impediment.  Soto plays next year at 26.  So if you want him out of the OF in, say, six years, you could try 1B, or maybe Ohtani is winding down pitching by then and can play some OF himself...it just seems like such a "down the road" issue that I doubt it matters.
Darragh McDonald
9:33
I don't see why Soto can't have a pit stop at first base for a few years before getting to DH status, like Bryce Harper. The Dodgers only have Freeman for three more years and Soto is 26. I think he can easily stay in the outfield until then.
Steve Adams
9:33
The notion that Soto will "eventually be a DH" is overwhelmingly overblown to me. He's not a good defender, but he's made defensive strides in recent seasons and is such a good hitter that it doesn't really matter. We still see guys like Schwarber and Castellanos in the OF, and they're worse defenders in addition to being significantly lesser hitters (Castellanos especially).

The fact that you might want Soto to start DH'ing when he's, say, 33 or 34, doesn't mean anything. Teams are buying all of his late 20s and early 30s.
John
9:34
How do you expect the Orioles to replace Corbin Burnes? Do you think a trade is the most likely scenario? Ride with Grayson at the top with Bradish when/if he returns this year?
Tim Dierkes
9:35
I think the simplest thing is to just sign one of the better non-long-term SPs, like Kikuchi or Eovaldi.  If you're looking for front-end SP production on the trade market, I don't see much beyond Crochet.  Some of the Rays guys are a bit interesting, but I'm not sure they'd want to deal with the Orioles on them.
Darragh McDonald
9:35
I think it's hard to say. The expectation is that new ownership will want to do a bit of spending, but we don't know what the comfort level is since Rubenstein just officially took over in March. They have almost no money on the books and could go to the top of the market by re-signing Burnes but we have no real idea if they want to do something like that.
Steve Adams
9:38
I wouldn't count on a single inning from Bradish next year. The Orioles needed more pitching after they acquired Burnes last year. I opined as much at the time. They eventually added Eflin, but waiting til the deadline was too long and probably prevented them from addressing the lineup more meaningfully in July.

I don't think they'll re-sign Burnes, but I can see them on a mid-tier arm like Kikuchi and expect they'll be active in the Crochet market as well. I hope I'm wrong and that they just shock everyone with a big deal for Snell, Fried, Burnes... it's more fun and opens up more chaos once a team demonstrates a willingness to spend at a level that breaks recent precedent.

But, I think they'll sign a Kikuchi type and maybe buy low on Walker Buehler or something. I just can't see them at the top of the market based on prior activity, and the lack of any firm indication from Rubenstein (or concrete reporting from their beat suggesting it's possible)
Hayden
9:38
I’m curious what your all’s thoughts are on the Chicago Cubs. As a fan, it seems like they have at least a solid regular at every spot, but more than anything I think they need a star hitter. Do you see any avenue of them adding that bat?
Tim Dierkes
9:40
I got into this in yesterday's mailbag, but I don't see much path to improve the offense, if we assume they will not make a run at Juan Soto.  Side note, the Ricketts family has done well in lowering expectations so that fans basically have zero expectation that the Cubs would go after a Juan Soto.  Anyway, I think they just need internal improvements from players like PCA, Paredes, and the catcher spot.
Darragh McDonald
9:40
I'm skeptical of them adding a bat. As you said, they have decent guys all over the roster. Some of them have no-trade clauses that make a shake-up difficult. They also have a whole bunch of really good prospects who will need opportunities soon. My guess is they focus on one big rotation addition, which is why I predicted them to sign Fried.
Steve Adams
9:42
Not really, which is why they make so much sense for a top-end pitcher. I thought the possibility of a rare Cubs/Cards trade sending Contreras back to Chicago was a fun off-the-wall concept to kick around, but that's less likely with Contreras wanting to stay in STL.

You could dream up some pie-in-the-sky scenarios about trading for Cal Raleigh since the M's have Harry Ford in the wings and want to cut back on their strikeouts, but he's such an entrenched part of the Mariners' clubhouse I can't see if. There's no real impact catcher who I think could be had in trade this winter if Willson isn't moving.

The one path could be just pivoting and trading Isaac Paredes, then pushing for Bregman or something, but there are genuine scenarios where Paredes outperforms Bregman at the plate anyhow.

If they can trade Belli, it might open up a few more paths, but then you're also just removing a pretty decent bat from the lineup there, too.
Pitching's the route to go
JeffyM
9:43
Who do you think signs the most regrettable contract of the offseason?
Tim Dierkes
9:43
I suppose I'll go with Max Fried.  As my colleagues know I'm just not a huge Fried guy.
Darragh McDonald
9:44
If someone gives Alonso the mega contract he's looking for, something in the Olson/Freeman range of 160ish, I think that would age poorly.
Steve Adams
9:45
Probably Pete Alonso for me as well, but since Darragh already mentioned him, I'll throw out what most probably think is a surprising pick: Corbin Burnes.

Burnes isn't the dominant ace he once was, despite the big-game rep and nice ERA. HIs K% has plummeted from the days he was whiffing like 35% of his opponents and is now barely above-average. He's still a good pitcher, but I wouldn't want him near the $200MM contract I think he'll seek and likely land.
Jeff M
9:45
After last season's "full throttle" debacle, all reports indicate the Red Sox are going to give out some money again. How real do you think this is and if they are spending, who are the targets?
Tim Dierkes
9:46
I understand the skepticism that the Red Sox will sign a big name FA this winter.  I think they're ready to do so and the logical choices would be Burnes, Snell, or Fried.  Things would get interesting if they were to, say, trade for Crochet though.
Darragh McDonald
9:47
I think it's real. They had enough talent to flirt with contention this year. They have the four big prospects knocking on the door. They have about $50MM in payroll space just to get to 2024 levels. They're about $70MM from the luxury tax. The rotation makes the most sense since they have a lot of position players and their best prospects are all hitters as well.
Steve Adams
9:47
Much more real this time around. Expectations are up. Breslow knows the system better, and this time he's the one making the comments. I will be surprised if they don't sign one of the top free-agent starters (Burnes, Snell, Fried, Flaherty).

I also expect a more spirited run at Teoscar Hernandez, to whom they offered two years and $28MM last year.

To Tim's Crochet point, nothing's stopping them from trading for Crochet AND signing a Snell/Burnes/Fried. They could easily do both. I buy the sincerity of their intent to add in a way that I did not fully last year.
Padres
9:48
Does Quintana, Gibson or even Verlander make sense for us?
Tim Dierkes
9:49
They need to replace Musgrove, but with the payroll as tight as it seems to be, I don't know why they'd go into that $12MM range for a fourth starter type.  If you're aiming for someone with as low a ceiling as Quintana, try to do it for $7 mil or something.  I put Turnbull there.
Darragh McDonald
9:50
In a sense, sure. Having Cease, King and Darvish is a strong front three, so there's value in adding a reliable back-end guy. It depends on the money though. They avoided the tax this year and are already projected to go over next year. They have needs at shortstop and in the outfield as well, so it might not be the best use of limited resources.
Steve Adams
9:51
Any of the three fits for me, sure. I think they could aim a little higher in terms of ceiling (at least with regard to Gibby and Q... JV obviously has plenty, but he'll probably also want a big salary or the opportunity to get there via incentives). It depends how much they're willing to bump the payroll from 2024. SD beat reporting as of this morning they still don't know where the budget will land.

Crochet fits well here, also. (You can see why the ChiSox are going to get a big haul for him... he fits everywhere and especially on the payroll-crunch teams).

If they're shopping in this range, I'd prefer a one-year offer to Walker Buehler or rolling the dice on an NPB arm like Tomoyuki Sugano rather than just hoping you get 170 decent innings from Quintana or Gibson.
DJT
9:52
All four of you projected Pivetta accepting the QO, while others such as The Athletic projected a contract of around $45-48M over 3 years. Why are y'all so confident he will take the QO? Is the draft pick penalty really that much of a hindrance? Thank you for putting together the list, I really enjoy it every year.
Tim Dierkes
9:54
I could be wrong, but I think The Athletic put out three different free agent lists, and all of them before QOs were due on Monday.  So I think their Pivetta predictions might have been under the assumption it would not be offered.  That is why we wait for QOs at MLBTR - they can change a contract projection significantly.  That said, when the Pivetta news came in we were pretty swamped, and I'd have preferred having more time to build consensus on it.  Tagging Pivetta with a QO gives the Red Sox leverage, because he becomes much less appealing to certain teams such as the Mets and Dodgers (due to draft pick forfeiture).  So I'd expect Pivetta to accept or do a two or three-year deal with the Red Sox.  Can't rule out a decent three-year deal elsewhere; that's what Tyler Anderson got and Pivetta has some untapped potential.
Darragh McDonald
9:56
For Pivetta, he got bumped to the bullpen last year and looked like a non-tender candidate before righting the ship. He made $7.5MM in 2024, so accepting the QO means essentially tripling his salary. That's a hard thing to turn down. Some club could make him think twice with a strong multi-year offer but they would have also be willing to give up draft picks.
Steve Adams
9:56
I do think it's a hindrance. We were at 3/42 or 3/45 without the QO. Pivetta is durable and interesting because of his high-end K% and BB%, but he's extremely homer-prone as well and will pitch next season at 32. The track record of teams signing a 32-year-old starter (or older) who's rejected a QO doesn't bode well for Pivetta. It's deGrom, Bassitt, Eovaldi, Sonny Gray and (more encouragingly) Tyler Anderson.

(Shout out to our Contract Tracker for allowing me to pull that data up in about 5 seconds)

Pivetta isn't deGrom/Bassitt/Gray/Eovaldi. He's definitely in line with Anderson and I would argue is better, but Anderson was coming off a better season and it was kind of an outlier/surprise deal from the Angels.

Like Martinez in CIN, I think he could do a 2- or 3-year deal with his current team as well.
Sasaki Posting?
9:57
What are the chances of Sasaki being posted and who are your top five for landing him if he’s available?
Darragh McDonald
9:59
No clue on the chances. For him and his NPB team, it makes so much financial sense to wait two years so he can be 25 years old and get the Yamamoto deal or something like it. But Ohtani came over when he was 23 and it worked out, so there's a non-zero chance. As for the clubs, it wouldn't be about money since he would be hardcapped by the pool system. That means he would just be picking based on geographical preferences, team reputation, etc. A lot of people say Dodgers are number one and I have no good reason to push back on that.
Steve Adams
10:00
There's no good way to predict this. Plain and simple. It's a boring answer, but it's true. There's lots of speculation among MLB execs, but it's all just that. NPB's Marines are being extremely tight-lipped, and Sasaki isn't going to want to have his camp leak anything to risk the ire of the club, since it's their call whether to post him.

If he's posted, it'll come down to personal preference and who makes the best pitch to him. Again, we can't know that. There won't be a true open bidding war on him, since he's an amateur under MLB's international system unless he waits two more years to be posted. So he'll be signing a minor league deal with a hard-capped bonus that can't really exceed $7-8MM or so.

A lot of NPB/KBO stars in the past have preferred West Coast clubs, but that's far from a universal truth and even if it were, Sasaki is his own person with his own motivations that he (wisely) has not voice in a public setting, as it'd minimize the already tiny leverage he has if he's posted this winter.
GuyIncognito
10:01
Are there any predictions you made that you're already regretting and wish you could take back?
Tim Dierkes
10:02
Harrison Bader was a somewhat late addition to our list.  I had this idea in my mind that he worked on the Reds as a fairly obvious "see, our awful defense is better now" move (understanding the Reds would need to separately add offense).  I had kind of forgotten Bader was terrible there for 14 games in 2023.  So I would take that pick back.
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