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2024-25 Top 50 Free Agent chat with MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald
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Darragh McDonald
10:04
I guess putting both Adames and Santander on the Giants. I forgot that the Giants paid the CBT in 2024, meaning they have to forfeit two draft picks for each QO guy they sign. Getting two QO guys means forfeiting four draft picks plus a bunch of pool money. That probably won't happen.
Steve Adams
10:04
Contract-wise, not yet. Though that'll come. Always does. (If anything, I wanted us to be more bullish on Manaea and Fried) I suppose I'm questioning four years on Hoffman and, to a lesser extent, three on Christian Walker. (Anthony wanted two there)

Team-wise, I put the Mariners on Bregman knowing full well at the time that I hated it. They've never signed a position player FA for more than two years and $24MM under Dipoto. But we're trying to present one cohesive scenario, and the one I laid out with my other 49 picks didn't leave a landing spot I loved for Bregman.

I went with Seattle under the guise that perhaps ownership would greenlight something out of character since they're getting a bit more desperate and since from a pure skillset stance, he's exactly what they're looking for.
Anthony Franconstine
10:05
No verdugo even on honorable mentions? I feel like he could easily get a contract like Hunter renfroe did last year
Tim Dierkes
10:05
There were a slew of players who can probably find regular jobs somewhere that we mostly felt would get $8MM or less on a one-year deal.  Verdugo is one such player.  I regret not being more comprehensive with the honorable mentions to just toss a few more of these types in there.
Darragh McDonald
10:06
He could get the Renfroe deal, sure, but it's also possible he gets the Tim Anderson 1/5 deal.
Steve Adams
10:06
Hunter Renfroe's deal read to me like an objective misstep from the moment it was signed. Didn't get it then, don't get it now. If Verdugo finds a deal like that, more power to him, but I'm just not high on the player. He had a good April and was then one of the worst hitters in MLB for the rest of the season. Even at his best, he's more of an average player. You can say that about Renfroe too, so sure it's possible he gets that deal but I'm not predicting it.
Nate
10:07
The Dodgers have not signed a Boras client since around 2015, I believe. Do you think that would dampen some expectations of Soto-to-the-Dodgers rumors?
Tim Dierkes
10:08
When someone gives me a chance to hype our MLB Contract Tracker, I take it.  We generally can't guarantee 100% accuracy with agency data, but as seen here there was Paxton in Jan 2024 and JD Martinez in Dec 2022.  Ryu accepted a QO which isn't really a negotiation.  Also Manny Ramirez, but that pre-dates Andrew Friedman.
To answer the question, no, Soto is a generational player and if the Dodgers want him they'll work with Boras.
Steve Adams
10:10
Beyond the free agent deals, they've also rostered Ryu, Julio Urias, Bellinger, Michael Busch, Joey Gallo, Michael Kopech, Corey Seager ... they deal with Boras all the time.
(Shout out to our Agency Database for a quick run-through there)
Phillies
10:11
Your analysis is comical. You really think the Phillies — who are trying to contend for a World Series — are going to sign two oft-injured and over the hill starters and/or two barely adequate closers?  Did you even listen DD’s comments?  Why do you devote so much bandwidth to certain teams (Cubs, Toronto, Mets) and none to others?  Is it click driven?
Tim Dierkes
10:15
First off, you're misunderstanding our team picks.  The team picks are simply not a statement that Underrepresented Team X is not doing something.  We just liked other teams more for various players.  I guess if your premise is, "Might the Phillies sign a top 20 FA even though you guys didn't pick that?"  My answer is: sure, especially if they move some money.  Of course, they're not a favorite on Soto and their rotation seems fairly set outside of the fifth starter.  So if you're mad that we didn't predict them jamming Santander or Teo into their OF as Castellanos Part 2 - sure, I guess they could do that, wouldn't recommend it.
Darragh McDonald
10:16
The Phillies are already projected to be about $20MM beyond last year's payroll before doing anything. They could sign top free agents but other teams have a stronger case for doing so. As for the bias thing, we get accused of that all the time from people who want news about one specific club. But we write about all 30 teams so that means about 97% of the content won't be about your favorite.
Steve Adams
10:17
Your willful decision not to read the intro to our list is comical. (Hey! It's easy to throw barbs!)

But really, as Tim said, the team-by-team picks aren't where we focus our efforts. They're a total house of cards, where one move from them or another team completely changes the whole puzzle. Contracts are more rooted in precedent and thus easier to predict.

We're all predicting one landing spot that makes sense for a free agent. That doesn't mean we find it unlikely the Phillies sign a high-end free agent.

At the same time, the Phillies are literally the only team in MLB already projected for a payroll increase and a new franchise-record payroll before making a single move. So, sure they have the money to make a big splash. They could also operate largely on the trade market, which Dombrowski has openly referenced multiple times.
Juanald sotuna jr
10:17
You guys are way off the mark with AA, he is secretive and guarded with info, but what info he gives directly is always 100% truthful, he has already said ownership is increasing payroll over last year, and between moving off soler, darnaud, most likely fried and Morton, Duvall, and possibly non tenders to laureono and canning, i think they are taking swing at soto, whose desire to win and close friendship w acuna make us a dangerous sleeper.
Tim Dierkes
10:18
You guys are getting feisty!  I like it.  I don't see the Braves making a run at Soto, but he's enough of a unique player that I am hopeful we see some unexpected suitors emerge, just for the fun of it.
10:21
I know Darragh and Steve are typing answers, but I'll also add that "increasing payroll" can mean a lot of different things, including increasing payroll by like $5MM.  We don't know the actual payrolls these teams are operating under.  It's definitely happened where the payroll went up and they still had limited money to spend on additions.
Darragh McDonald
10:21
I wouldn't put any stock in Soto's relationships. He seems to get along well with lots of guys in the game. As for the payroll, the club has continued to ramp it up but that hasn't led to big splashes in free agency. Their biggest free agent signing in our Contract Tracker is $75.3MM for Melvin Upton, followed by the $65MM for Marcell Ozuna for a more recent example. They could consider Soto worthy of an exception but I don't think it's likely.
Steve Adams
10:22
Signing Soto for the Braves would require them to pay around $80MM for him in 2025 alone, since he'd push them into the third luxury tax tier by himself. Anthopoulos has never given out a contract with annual value north of $23MM -- and that counts Josh Donaldson's one-year deal. On a multi-year deal, he's never topped Austin Riley's $21.2MM AAV.

The Braves have spent $32MM in free agency over the last two offseasons.

I've got no problem saying, "Guess I was wrong" if they sign Soto. I would put their chances of signing him at under 1%.
Rizzo
10:22
What contract do you think Gerritt Cole would've gotten in this market?
Tim Dierkes
10:23
We debated this a lot and landed at three years, $135MM for a new pitcher AAV record.  Technically less than the 144 he initially opted out of, but also easy to make up that gap on his subsequent contract.
KC Dave
10:24
Who do you guys think the Royals do this winter? Having already signed Wacha, do you think they trade Singer, Marsh or Bubic and what could they get for them? Also, what are realistic targets in the OF and 3rd Base and leadoff man, thanks!!
Tim Dierkes
10:26
I guess I can see a Singer trade, but just keeping him as the fourth starter seems like a better choice.  I put the Royals on Santander and can see them on any non-Soto OF.  I think I also put Gleyber Torres there to satisfy the leadoff man thing.  I know a few colleagues kicked around possible big 3B splashes.
Darragh McDonald
10:26
A big outfield addition makes a lot of sense. They were so bad out there this year and the lineup was so top heavy.. I predicted Teoscar but Santander, Profar, any of those guys would fit. As would trade targets.
Steve Adams
10:27
I'll be writing something this week for subscribers on why I think the Royals could be more aggressive than they were last offseason. (Could've waited a week to re-sign Wacha, J.J. Picollo! So rude.)

But broadly, I don't think they'll trade Singer. Marsh, sure, but the return would be minimal. Bubic is a more interesting trade option.

They have the cash to make a run at Santander, Hernandez, O'Neill, Profar. I could see Gleyber as a leadoff option. I've got some thoughts on larger-scale moves that fit on paper anyway and will get into those more in tomorrow's piece, but to your point ... yeah, I think the Royals are going to be splashing around a bit again this offseason.
Mets in the Morning
10:27
What team is your prediction for biggest surprise spender this year?
Tim Dierkes
10:28
I assume the casual fan (not you chatters) will be surprised if the Nationals splash around some money, given that they haven't in a while.  We all expect the A's to toss around a couple bucks, possibly even a few three-year deals, on account of having no one on the books beyond Brent Rooker.
Seems like the Rays could surprise a bit too.
Darragh McDonald
10:30
I will say the Athletics. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I think there's a non-zero chance that they are far more willing to throw cash around now that they are moving. It's possible some of their previous low budgets were intentional to lower the team quality and fan interest, like the plot of Major League. The Fishers are billionaires and could do it if they want to get some momentum prior to their Vegas move. Or they might just need to overpay some guys who otherwise wouldn't want to play in a minor league ballpark in Sacramento.
Steve Adams
10:31
I don't know if the Royals count as a surprise after spending $106MM last offseason and already putting down $51MM on Wacha.

I'll give some love to the Rays, as Tim alluded to. If they trade some combination of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Zack Littell and Colin Poche -- all of whom have MLB-ready in-house replacements -- they could have like $60MM+  before they even get back to their 2024 payroll.

I don't put a lot of stock into the loose Juan Soto connection, but they have money to work with, a stacked farm, etc. They could take on good players earning some decent money, and they could sign any number of solid pitchers or mid-level bats.

Doesn't mean they will, especially with the stadium uncertainty, but it's more plausible than many realize. And most expect the Rays to just sign guys for like a year and $5MM or less.
Pirates could add a second-tier OF bat as well, I think
MikeD
10:31
I’m still having difficulty with the concept that thr Mets or Dodgers or Giants, etc. could give $550MM to Soto with the Yankees not matching or exceeding.
Tim Dierkes
10:33
There is a theoretical number where the Yankees drop out while the Mets or others keep going.  I don't think that number is 550 either, but once it creeps past 600 I can see it.  Would the Yankees have matched or exceeded 425 on Judge?  Don't know.  Did they tap out on Yamamoto?  Yes.
Darragh McDonald
10:33
According to a brief Google search, Hal Steinbrenner has a net worth of $1.5 billion and Steve Cohen makes about that much annually. That's an oversimplification but I don't see how Cohen loses a bidding war if that's what it comes down to.
Steve Adams
10:34
If those teams stop at 550, yeah I think the Yankees would match/beat it. But I think bidding will go well past that. I was higher than even our $600MM originally and think it could scale a decent ways beyond that.

The Yankees already have huge annual salaries for Cole, Judge, Stanton and Rodon locked in. Their arb class is always large. They regularly add players with eight-figure AAVs in free agency.

I don't see them ducking under the tax line anytime soon, so adding Soto effectively means committing 90-110% of his actual salary to their books on an annual basis. At a certain point, it could become untenable.
Zack
10:34
Is there a player you really REALLY wanted to include but for whatever reason just couldn't?
Tim Dierkes
10:35
I'd say the opposite.  All due respect to Spencer Turnbull and Harrison Bader but I don't think the guys were all that excited writing those up.  We were going to put Kenley and/or D-Rob on there but decided on those two instead.
Darragh McDonald
10:36
I initially wanted to stump for Max Kepler since I think he's a bit underrated, but I couldn't really bring myself to do it. Could be a decent buy-low guy though.
Tim Dierkes
10:36
I recall that I liked Jose Leclerc more than my colleagues, but not enough to push for his inclusion at the end.
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