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2024-25 Top 50 Free Agent chat with MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald
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Steve Adams
10:36
Rich freakin' Hill. Dick Mountain forever.

But really, I don't think so. I think Carson Kelly is going to get more than Darragh/Tim/Anthony do -- something in the $15-20MM range total, but I don't think omitting him from the list is egregious or anything and I recognize there's also a chance he gets like 1/6 or 2/10. I always have a soft spot for good-glove catchers, though in my defense, they usually get paid haha.
Johnny5Alive
10:37
The rangers want to cut payroll... but some of the contracts just seem unmovable (i.e. semien, degrom)... thoughts?
Tim Dierkes
10:38
Jon Gray seems to be mentioned often for this purpose.  Moving Nathaniel Lowe could work.  Leody Taveras probably.  I think Adolis Garcia stays, but that's possible.
Darragh McDonald
10:38
They don't need to move contracts to cut payroll. They are currently projected to be about $40MM below last year's spending. I think they will just have a more modest offseason and hope for bouncebacks from their internal guys who struggled in 2024.
Steve Adams
10:39
I think people interpreted the "they want to be under the luxury tax line" incorrectly. They're already under the tax line, so it's not so much about dumping huge contracts as spending more responsibly than in the past (which they also did last winter). I could see them moving Jon Gray, Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras, Nate Lowe, Dane Dunning

I don't think they're going to look to move Semien or deGrom, but you're right that they wouldn't be able to do so without taking on some cash.
Stearns
10:39
Any chance the Mets should be semi-aggressive, but careful enough to reset the luxury tax?
Tim Dierkes
10:40
Actually yes, and I think people haven't given much thought to this possibility.  They have about 165 committed to CBT payroll in my estimation, so they could add 75 mil in 2025 AAV and still stay under 241 to reset.  Such a plan would probably not involve a Soto pursuit.
Darragh McDonald
10:41
They could do that, I guess. I was about to type out the numbers when I saw Tim do it. But they also have a lot of holes on the roster and Cohen doesn't really care about the money.
Steve Adams
10:42
I think it'd be a huge slap in the face to fans on the heels of that NLCS run. Cohen doesn't need to care about the luxury tax and has shown repeatedly that he in fact does not care about it. Spend away, my fellow Steve.

I suppose there's a scenario where Soto is just quietly hell-bent on staying a Yankee or returning to the Nats or something, and the Mets can't get him. And then at that point they re-sign Alonso, spend aggressively but not wildly in the SP market, and make some trades.

But nah, I think they'll just spend with reckless abandon. And that's fun.
Angels
10:42
What players could the Angels get that would surprise most people? And why did nobody have Bieber to the Angels? That seems like an ok fit.
Tim Dierkes
10:44
Luis Robert? Alex Bregman?  As for Bieber, Angels seem reasonable enough, though he seems like mostly a second half contributor.  If I were him I'd try to go to a team more known for pitching development.
Darragh McDonald
10:44
Bieber could go to the Angels, sure. But he's probably going to have a lot of similar offers from various clubs, given his post-surgery status. I don't see why he'd pick a club with a pretty poor record of getting results from starting pitchers.
Steve Adams
10:45
Bieber to the Angels is perfectly plausible. Bieber to about 15 teams is plausible, though. Again, the team picks are inherently way more difficult to pick and are largely just dart-throws. We try to make them make sense, which requires work, but there isn't a person on earth who can accurately tell you where 99% of the free agents will sign on the day our list publishes. The players and teams themselves don't know at that point.

Angels could plausibly add Bregman or Alonso and I'm sure that'd surprise many people.
Dan
10:45
Could you see the Blue Jays try to offload players like Bassit and Springer to have more resources for FA's? Realistically their production can be reproduced for much cheaper, and by younger players.
Tim Dierkes
10:46
Springer is owed $45MM over the next two years.  To offload a notable portion of that, the Blue Jays would have to pay for it by including a good prospect or young player.  Bassitt has $21MM coming and you could probably get most of that off the books if you didn't expect much in the return.
Darragh McDonald
10:47
I can see it but they could have marketed those players at the deadline and didn't do it. They are already in the market for outfield and rotation help as it is. Moving those guys would increase the need and replacing them for cheaper is easier said than done.
Steve Adams
10:48
Springer more so, but they'd need to eat a decent amount of the contract. More than half of it.

Bassitt is still generally good and the Jays' pitching depth is ... bad. They want to contend in 2025, so moving him seems counterproductive.

If you want to cut some money, Chad Green's the way to go, but I don't think anyone's taking on the full $10.5MM. He was nowhere near as good as his 3.21 ERA last year.
Brewers
10:49
I completely agree with your assessment that Milwaukee will be among the handful (or more) teams not in on big-name FA.  That makes a Devin Williams deal more needed.  Where are the best landing spots and can a 3rd basemen be part of the return?
Tim Dierkes
10:49
I'll throw out the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees, Orioles, Rangers, Blue Jays, Astros, and Phillies as potential landing spots.  As to whether there are other good fits or who a possible 3B to offer up might be, I'll defer to Darragh and Steve.
Steve Adams
10:52
Yeah, all of those teams work. I could see a 3B-capable player going back, but I don't think they're getting a starting MLB third baseman for a year of Williams. Philly would maybe be open to Bohm/Williams framework, but Bohm isn't the type of player the Brewers typically covet (due to his middling OBPs and glovework). Could Baltimore send Ramon Urias and a prospect or two? Sure. But I don't think they'd be the Orioles' very best prospects.

In general, I think Williams has fine trade value but probably not to the extent the Brewers fanbase is hoping. You're not going to get a plug-and-play controllable guy like Joey Ortiz as you did in the Burnes trade.
Joey Caltrain
10:53
Would there be any sense to the White Sox going in on big free agents just to try to win back the fans and wipe away the embarrassment of last season? Is Reinsdorf humiliated enough to greenlight a bigger contract than Benintendi's?
Tim Dierkes
10:54
Chris Getz has said they won't be working heavy in free agency.  I see some logic to piling up decent FA relievers to see if any can be flipped at the deadline, but it's a tough sell to the player.  Plus, Reinsdorf has no shame or sense of accountability, and hates spending on free agents, so no.
Steve Adams
10:54
I can't see it under any circumstances. Plus, if you're a big-name free agent, why do you want to sign with a club that just had the worst record ever? The Sox would need to overpay substantially in years and dollars, and then you're just setting the franchise back further.
Darragh McDonald
10:55
I think they can at least sign some players and offer them playing time. I put Ha-Seong Kim on them for that reason. If he takes a one-year pillow deal as we predicted, looking to rebuild value before returning to free agency next year, they could just let him play.
TicsMcGee
10:55
I don't want to hound on anyone's picks, because they are personal opinion. But I am curious why NO ONE picked Kim to the Giants? He was teammates (and is friends) with Jung-Hoo Lee, and the Giants need middle infield help. I was a bit confounded to see no connection there.
Tim Dierkes
10:56
I'm pretty sure we all think Kim/Giants is a good match.  It was probably more that when trying to find a team for Adames, we each liked the Giants more than other options.  Worth underlining that we don't/can't have confidence in any individual team pick.
Darragh McDonald
10:56
It's plausible, sure, but I put Adames there. As we all did.
Steve Adams
10:57
I put a better shortstop there (Adames), and players don't generally sign with a club because they have a friend on the roster. Not that it wasn't amusing when the White Sox signed Machado's brother in law to try to woo him (while offering him nowhere near a number that he was going to take)
Cute Lady
10:57
Which predictions are you all most and least confident about?
Tim Dierkes
10:58
I feel better because we got Steve and Anthony to begrudgingly back off a bit on Snell, but I still lack confidence that he gets 160.  Similar deal with Flaherty.  I have my doubts on Burnes getting 200.  Most confident: Kikuchi at 3/60!
Darragh McDonald
10:59
I was the low guy on most of the top pitchers. We debated this on the podcast but I'm struggling with Snell. I know he's a great pitcher but will his market be vastly different than it was a year ago? As for most confident, none of them, really. Haha. We do our best to put out numbers that make sense but there are always different possible scenarios.
Steve Adams
10:59
Ha-Seong Kim and the NPB/KBO guys (Hyeseong Kim and Shinnosuke Ogasawara). Ha-Seong Kim's injury makes him a total wild card, and the scope of public predictions for his contract between MLBTR, FanGraphs, The Athletic, ESPN, etc. bear that out.

The younger Kim and Ogasawara are just inherently difficult, as is the case with foreign professionals every offseason. We can and typically do talk to MLB scouts and get opinions on these guys, but it takes one team loving a player or acting desperately to blow up industry consensus. Most people who work in the sport were stunned by what the Giants gave to Jung Hoo Lee and what the Red Sox gave to Masataka Yoshida, for instance.
Tim Dierkes
11:00
Last question for today...
Guest
11:00
Why not pay Soto for his prime- 6 years, 60 million a year?
Tim Dierkes
11:02
I think this is an interesting idea, and the Dodgers tried to do it with Bryce Harper (I believe something short-term worth 45 mil/year).  One reason Soto won't do it is that he can lock in 600+ in total, so why risk some sort of injury or downturn within the next six years that kills his earning power?  Some guys are out of the game in their early 30s, quite unexpectedly.  Others age worse than expected, like Andruw Jones.  The other reason is that a lot of Soto suitors are in or near the 110% tax bracket and no player is worth $126MM for a single season.
Darragh McDonald
11:02
Why don't I stop paying my mortgage halfway through?
Steve Adams
11:04
Because he has leverage to ask for more than that. If Soto wants another bite at free agency six years from now, he can negotiate an opt-out into a longer-term deal that'll afford him that chance.

I also don't think $60MM per year would necessarily get it done. If he were going to sign for six seasons, you might still get some surprise non-luxury teams teams willing to go beyond $400MM. That's a crazy number to some folks ($66.667MM AAV), but you'd feel pretty good about Soto putting up at least six WAR per year and likely having some 7-10 WAR seasons along the way. If you're the Orioles or Tigers for instance, go all out. $66MM per season is still less annually than a top luxury team would be paying for Soto when considering the taxes on a more expected $45-50MM AAV
11:05
The O's or Tigers signing Soto at 6 years and $420MM with no deferrals would rule, by the way.
Bring me all the chaos
Tim Dierkes
11:05
OK with that, we've passed the two-hour mark, so we're gonna be done for the chat.  Check out the podcast, coming today, if you'd like hearing all four of us go back and forth on this stuff for another two hours!  Thanks for joining us today
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