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2024 FanGraphs Prospect Week Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Not really. You get into the gray area between scouting and predicting if you do it that way. It would feel weird to have Grade X on a draft prospect, then either raise or lower depending on the org that drafts him. I think most FG readers who care about prospects for the purposes of fantasy baseball are smart enough to make those kinds of adjustments themselves as they parse the neutral work.
Oliver
12:28
If not for the perception that he was a strong commit to attend college, where would Cooper Pratt have slotted in the last draft. The Brewers landed a bunch of exciting prospects ahead of him but he seems to have a comparable ceiling to the guys taken ahead of him.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
I probably had hi ma little too high. He got $1.3 million, which is late 2nd round money. He's probably more early/mid second round in a normal draft, was late 2 in a loaded one
NB
12:30
Eric and Tess, Great work again on Prospect Week!  I subscribe to Fangraphs and other publications because I love getting a diversity of opinions.  I feel like you guys tend to rate younger international signees higher than others while ranking recent MLB draftees a little lower.  I'm wondering about how much you like Brock Wilken, Aiden Miller, and Dillon Head, 3 draftees who missed your Top 100.  Thx!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
All three were picks to click, we like them a lot. Head put really strong contact data on paper in pro ball. Miller did too, but I'm a little suss of his swing, which is like Carter Kieboom/Keston Hiura/Jeter Downs in the way his hands loop. Let's see how he does against big velo. Wilken, you know the report. I want 1B/3B types to have closer proximity to the big league before I value them as a 50. The kids' ceilings are so much bigger than Wilken-types (Walcott, etc) that even though they're lower-prob players I wwant to value to possibility that they're unicorn players ahead of guys like Wilken unless they're performing for a while at AA/AAA
Bob
12:32
You are the low guys on Tyler Black. What do you see keeping him from being a top 100 type? Lack of a defensive home? Not enough bat for questionable defense?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
A lot of these questions are just going to be answered with the next piece. I don't believe in his hit tool as much as the others, I guess. Also looking like a 3B/1B with 40 power. Can you find me a guy with that profile in the bigs? Lamonte Wade? Is Wade someone you'd 50? He's fine but not *that* good.
Tim
12:34
Do you think Colton Cowser is anything more than a platoon guy?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
I do not
Keith
12:35
Would Drew Thorpe be a solid comp for Alonzo Treadwell? Do you feel he could be elite with a velo bump?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Nah, very diff fastball profiles. Another guy whose name is in this next piece. Vert FB/CRV combo, sitting 92 at UCLA, could use stride alteration to shallow out his FB angle. A breakout pick because Houston tends to be good at this.
Ralph
12:36
If Dominguez didn't tear his UCL, where would he have slotted?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Closer to 50th overall
birds birds birds
12:37
Long ago, I read somewhere that the step from A to AA was the biggest jump for a minor leaguer to make.  Agree?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Triple-A to big leagues. WIthin the confines of the minors it's probably High-A to Double-A, yes.
Mike Cameron Maybin
12:37
Any hope to offer for Luciano being a productive regular this year? Obviously the power's there and he's got time, but the K rate is... woof. The defense wasn't stellar either, and early reports are that he's put on weight coming into camp. Continued contact issues and a move to a corner of spot feels pretty bleak, right?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Pretty bleak, imo. 64% contact rate is below any present MLB SS, let alone OF if he has to move. Still has huge juice, though.
sad Rangers fan
12:38
What is your outlook on Leiter now? is there a chance he becomes front end or even mid-rotation starter? is it an issue of shape of pitches, command, control or combination of all?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
Fastball is still really good, has zero feel for location. Kinda in Mac Gore limbo right now, still think Jack will be a fair big leaguer but probably an RP at this point. This is his 40-man eval year so we might see TEX make a move in that regard
Your name
12:39
Love and appreciate all the content. Just out of curiosity, when do you guys change a prospects position? You have Caminero as a RFer even though he hasnt played there in the majors or minors, but you have Shaw as 2B even though he's taking reps at 3B and fangraphs indicated that is the position he has the clearest path to the majors.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Totally our projection, when I think it's the right call and am tooling around in the guts of The Board, I change it
Jason
12:40
What happened to the Just Missed article?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
It's more a "100 more names to know" article so as you can imagine, it's quite long and is being edited.
Chris
12:40
How close was Lazaro montes to being 50'd? What does he need to show in order to be in the top 100 a year from now?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
Another guy in the upcoming article. Gigantic kid with huge present raw, think the length in his swing makes him risky. Wanna see him adjust to fastballs around his hands.
Nervous Flyball Pitcher
12:41
Can science explain why multiple projection systems (ZiPS and Steamer) think Coby Mayo will play above average 3B defense? I would be thrilled, but those conclusions are the direct opposite of what prospect writers say. I think Longenhagen/Taruskin have projected him at RF since last year.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
Yeah, evaluating minor league defense visually (when you can actually do it thoroughly) will give you way better results than a proj system is going to. MAybe proprietary minor league kinatrax and statcast type stuff could help you model defense if you had access to that data.
Eddie
12:43
When Spencer Jones was as old as Jasson Dominguez is right now he had a sub .800 OPS in the SEC. Are we being too harsh on Dominguez still? Feel like there's a lot of upwards projection for Spencer and downwards for Jasson when they both don't have a ton of ABs per say
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
If I showed you all of Jasson's swings in a super tight edit right on top of one another, you'd see how little barrel control there is. Doesn't mean I think he's bad, just think the long-term ceiling on Spenny is so big that he needed to be elevated
12:45
Age differences and differences in projection often go hand in hand, but not as far as those two are concerned. Jasson's body is maxed, the cement is dry. Jones' is not.
Jordash
12:45
Is it just me, or do you sometimes confuse Jordan Westburg and Paul Westerberg, lead singer of the Replacements?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
I confused John Henry and Patrick Henry on a history test in high school and my teacher told me my priorities were effed
Jordash
12:45
Jordan Westburg gets overshadowed in the strong Orioles system. Do you think he can be an everyday guy by year's end?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
I have more a 45 on him because the defense is kinda bleh. Might be out-talented by the others. Still a good player, just ideally want him to have a lefty/defense caddy. Think J Ortiz was more an omnisituational guy, Westy has more juice tho.
Refugee
12:47
For Eric/Tess: 1. How do you use plate discipline and batted ball data to color your scouting? 2. Where are you getting that data from? I can only find it publicly available at the AAA level.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
We are sourcing milb-wide data from team contacts. I'm looking at chase, chase relative to raw swing%, and for the first time this offseason chase relative to 2-strike chase%. The chase data is illuminating more than in-person looks, batted ball/contact stuff serves to confirm the visual scouting report and find guys we've overlooked.
Scott
12:49
Noticed Solometo is not on top 100.  What do you need to see from him to crack list in the future?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
Two or three more ticks. I think he's more a no. 4/5 than a mid-rotatino guy, there aren't many impact starters who only sit 91-92.
mason morris
12:51
Druw Jones? Why does no one love him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
Looked so out of whack when he was healthy last year that there's no way he hits unless his sing changes.
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