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2024 FanGraphs Prospect Week Chat
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JH
12:52
Juan Brito was on last year's version of the Picks to Click and seemed to perform exactly as expected, succeeding in A+ and AA while showing the same mix of contact, patience, and a little pop that seemed to catch your eye last year. Any insight as to why he missed this year's list? Has the scouting report backed up, or were you projecting a leap forward while his year was more like treading water?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
Defense is terrible
Ryan
12:52
How difficult is it to change your fastball shape? If you are able to change the shape, how much does it impact your command/control?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
Probably easier said than done and depends on the person. I've seen guy simply alter pronation/supination on release, I've seen guys change the way their wrist is positioned, I've seen reworked arm paths and changes in stride direction that have impact up the body in such a way that alters arm and approach angle. Finding something the athlete can do consistently so their control doesn't totally wash out is an important piece of it.
Phil
12:54
Do you have any thoughts about David Sandlin? Breslow seems to think he could be a major league starter soon.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
Pretty typical three-quarters arm slot righty with a mid-90s fastball and presently average slider. His changeup's rate stats from 2023 suggest he should be throwing it more, and we should all be looking to see if Boston tweaks the shape/grip of his slider this year. They have two years to develop him before he needs to be put on the 40-man.
Keith
12:55
Any examples of very successful pitchers with poor fastball shape? How doomed is a pitcher with a “lifeless” fastball?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
Luzardo, Bibbee, Kirby...lots of guys, you just have to do other stuff like throw really hard.
Phils honk
12:56
Is Caba the best defender you’ve ever seen at that age? Is he the most talented defensive SS since Ozzie Smith like some say?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:56
Slickest infield I've seen since Jose Iglesias and Freddy Galvis
guest
12:56
How do you reconcile traditional scouting versus newer advanced metrics approaches like Stuff+? take Sawyer Gibson-Long for example. he was never a high pedigree prospect and his fastball according to Fangraphs scouting is a 40 grade. But according to stuff+, his change-up and sinker are two of the highest rated pitches in the model, and his fast is above average. His FIP and xERA seem to back up his limited results. Thank you for the feedback!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:57
Stuff+ overvalues guys whose stuff has lateral action
Get Two, Brute?
12:57
Is there any particular development issue with recent Pittsburgh graduates you can point to regarding their stalled rebuild? Three pitching prospects lost substantial velocity in 2023. And on the position player side, they gave roughly 1500 plate appearances to rookies who put up a collective 0.2 WAR. Is there something to point to with their young players struggling so much?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:57
That's one of those backfields that I'm only on once or twice a year, and it's tough for me to snoop enough to get a better idea of what they're doing with dev.
Mike S
12:58
What happened to Yiddi Cappe last season?  Is he still a prospect in your eyes or has he dropped off the map?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:58
Blerg, didn't look viable at SS and not enough offensive juice to comfortably profile at 2b only. I was overzealous last year.
David
12:58
Farmelo is a surprise, tooled up high schooler was kind of the description of him going into the draft and due to injury he was barely able to play in the minors, was curious if there was anything additional to could note about what you saw during instructs? Did he really stand out that much more than most every one else?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:59
He played during instructs and then during Cal League playoffs. Freakish size/strength for a teenager when you stand right next to him, swing is still work in progress, crazy power/speed combo.
PJ
12:59
I was surprised to see Payton Martin omitted from the picks to click list. What about him fails to impress you?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:02
Gotta reject the premise of this question. Just not enough space on P2C to include every single prospect I like, he's a prospect and will be on the team list. 6ft righty threw less than 40 innings last year, sitting 95 (show me over 120 innings por favor), hard mid-80s slider. Good prospect
romorr
1:02
If there was a Baltimore Oriole pitching prospect in next years top 100, can you give me your two best guesses? Baumeister and De Leon?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:02
nailed it with Baumeister i think
1:03
you guys are good at this and basically guessing the names in this next piece
jakefromboonesfarm
1:03
Lots of distance between major rankings of Kjerstad/Cowser, neither of whom blew any doors off in majors last year.  What separates them so much in your eval?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:04
Kjerstad's physicality and barrel control > Cowser. Cowser is a more discerning hitter but doesn't have nearly as much physical talent. Heston looked bulky and strong during '22 AFL, looked super cut and explosive in 2023, I thought he hit a different gear.
Jeremy
1:04
As a Phillies fan, how worried should I be that Mick Abel doesn't seem to have improved much since he was drafted?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:05
A little bit. I'm still betting on his body and the way it moves in a pretty profound way. I think it's more about him getting feel for his long/explsoive body than them altering what he's doing.
Reggie
1:05
the dodgers seem to have really done well with their most recent DSL team. Who do you like best joendry vargas. Quintero or someone else?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:05
well one of them was on the top 100 and one was a pick to click
Kate
1:05
Surprised to not see Celesten in the "this is what they look like" section of the picks to click.  Is that merely a result of him just not getting into games last year?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:06
yep, also in the upcoming piece, saw two games in the Fall and looked good on D, rusty at the dish. purely a wait and see how he looks type, we still don't truly *know* anything about the hit tool with zero pro data and because of how limited in-person looks were in 2023
Colton
1:06
Prospect week has been awesome, thanks for capping it off with this chat. Out of curiosity, how often do you find yourself writing up a guy that neither you or Tess have seen yourself? Just going purely off what other colleagues in the industry have on them.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:06
never ever
1:08
there are guys who i haven't seen in person but, at worst, I'm doing a ton of film study and have data to formulate my own opinion
Abimelec Ortiz
1:08
Thoughts on the hitter with the best name in the minors?  He crushed it last year with K improvements upon promotion, but obviously 1B hurts his list-ability.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:08
you nailed it, just think the performance is a little shy of top 15 at 1B because it's 1B.
Daniel
1:08
How big of swing in terms of value is Austin Wells defensive position?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:10
enormous. Jonah Heim and Edward Olivares had the same wRC+ last year.
Gronch
1:10
How would you have graded Brandon Belt's power coming up? Obviously the whole package, with excellent on-base, above average defense, and playable hit tool was enough to profile as an above average 1B, but he never hit for massive power
Eric A Longenhagen
1:11
Dayum, you're hitting me with a throwback. hold please...
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