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2024 FanGraphs Prospect Week Chat
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camelcase
1:30
Sebastian Walcott's report fascinates me. Extreme power potential with weak hit tool at a premium defensive position. Is this Joey Gallo at shortstop if everything breaks right?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:32
Javy Baez if everything breaks right. Mark Reynolds is more middle of the line outcome
sliptoad
1:32
thoughts on brice matthews replacing bregman at third? people on the astros subreddit seem to think that's the future but based on your picks to click writeup he seems far too raw for that kind of timeline
Eric A Longenhagen
1:33
agree with you more than the redditors. He's SO raw. Super gifted, though. Would expect a lower burn. But hey, George Springer was also a talented mess when he was drafted...
so was derek fisher
Thom
1:34
Hi Eric: you've previously mentioned that this year's list is shorter due to a smaller pool of high-end prospect talent. Do you see this as temporary or do you expect the high-end prospect talent pool to remain relatively small going forward?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:34
Little bit of both. I think this is a down year but also think the post-covid rules around rookie eligibility make it easier to graduate off the lists.
John
1:35
Roki Sasaki would rank top 3 if he were on the list?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:35
2-4 range, yeah
New UK Fan
1:35
Thank you for all the work. Rafaela vs PCA for defence only?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:35
man that's soooo tough. Gimme Rafaela because he can play the INF too
Jake
1:36
What is your prediction for the next wave in analytics?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:38
It's already underway across a lot of the league, but: quantifying the way the body moves in real time. Mapping patterns of movement via graph, assessing flexibility via angles of the hips and shoulders and using it both as an eval tool and to make MLB adjustments in-game
1:39
I also wonder what multiple years of the combine will yield in terms of the way those assessment correlate or not with pro success.
onomatopoeia
1:39
No question, just wanted to say prospect week rules. There's so much excellent content. I especially love the Effectively Wild appearances. Thanks for all of the hard work!
Eric A Longenhagen
1:39
gracias, it seems like a lot of folks listen to EW
Kate
1:39
Not a top 100 guys, but I've heard super disparate reports on Ricardo Cabrera.  Some had him as a legit plus runner last year on the complex and now I'm seeing others reporting that his body has backed up significantly to the point where he may need to move to 1B eventually.  Have you gotten any looks at him recently?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:40
Super rough look at SS, can barely throw the ball to first base accurately. Definitely gonna tumble down the defensive spectrum, hit data is really strong.
Billy G
1:40
Any notes yet on Tzu-Chen Sha?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:40
OMG yes, nerd
1:42
sneaky 90-92, curveball command and depth, changeup looked pretty good in the fall, too. backend type
Simon
1:42
Hi Eric, Wyatt Langford's jump over the three guys drafted above him is super interesting to me. What did he show in those last few months post-draft that the scouts weren't seeing? Seems like the consensus on his "rank" in that class shifted overnight
Eric A Longenhagen
1:42
Turning on the ball with power way better than just about any other top prospect
1:43
Absolutely cleaning out velo around his hands, where Crews Chourio and Cami all can get beat
Walton Dilcox
1:43
Can Rodney Green play CF?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:44
This is an OF at Cal. Not for me. Tough profile in a corner, prob not enough contact. Love the power, though.
Snowbird
1:44
I wonder your thoughts on Welbyn Francisca?  You had him as a 70 grade hit in 2023, his debut went well, and I heard that he is now 5’11’’ 185-ish. Any chance he pops?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:44
yes
romorr
1:44
I don't really think Chayce McDermott has done enough to be a starter, but there were some signs late. Still a MIRP/SIRP for  you? Or do you think there is "more" that could get him a spot in the rotation.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:45
of the guys with relief risk in that 45 FV area he's the one I think has the best chance to iron things out. he's so loose and long and athletic...gonna be an impact arm of some kind.
h8r
1:45
Are dodgers prospects the most overrated (industry-wide) due to perceived developmental advantages in the org?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:45
I do think the sexy orgs get a bump, generally
Misplaced A's Fan
1:45
I read that Matt Shaw had a 90% z-contact rate and premium EV last season. But his future hit tool grade is only a 50 and future power is graded as a 55. Did I get bad info on his contact rates or is Fangraphs being conservative on his projections?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:46
I'm being somewhat conservative because his swing is kinda weird looking, and i think the chase will eventually impact his hit tool
Will
1:47
Did you consider including Yohandy Morales in your "Picks to Click for 2025" article? And if so, was there a specific reason you've soured on him since the 2023 draft? Or was he overlooked/there just wasn't enough space to mention him in that article?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:47
Was really high on him pre-draft, went later than i thought, total inability to pull the ball is somewhat concerning so if I had to pick a reason that'd be it
Walton Dilcox
1:48
Is it just me or did the 2023 class kick ass during their pro debuts? College and HS esp up top...I'm crazy about Langford and Jenkins now and even beyond it seems like a banner draft
Eric A Longenhagen
1:48
they kicked ass
j
1:48
what goes on into the significant differences, when they happen, between sprint speed (78th percentile) and run grade (45/40) for guys like volpe? how can we identify candidates to outperform run grades?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:50
I don't think sprint speed is a great way to eval speed. Or rather, it's less useful than a player's typical run time in my opinion. Sprint speed measures speed in their fastest one-second window of running. Home-to-first times incorporate acceleration and long speed, as well as a measure of the instance in which speed makes the biggest difference (out vs safe at 1B).
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