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2024 FanGraphs Wild Card Chat
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Ben Clemens
3:26
Most things do not
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
the laws of thermodynamics are still applicable, guys
Ben Clemens
3:26
YOU DON'T KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT A GUY UNTIL YOU SEE IF HE CAN PERFORM UNDER THE BRIGHT LIGHTS
3:27
in fact, it's possible to know quite a lot
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
"you don't know anything until you can make up stories about character and fortitude based on random variance across a small sample of opportunities."
Ben Clemens
3:27
haha right Jay. When someone hits a grounder that takes one hop and pops out of the stadium, then we're onto something
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
exactly!
Ben Clemens
3:28
wait, 10th steal with only 1 CS. That doesn't sound bad?
Like, he only allowed 11 stolen base attempts
3:29
Also, as I'm looking at the stats, those were last year's numbers. This year, 6 steals and 1 CS
Statcast says he's about average controlling the running game, feels right to me
McGraw45
3:30
How come the Guardians have lower World Series odds than the Padres? With the bye, the Guardians avoid a series where the odds of winning are at best 60-40, which seems like it should outweigh roster advantages
Ben Clemens
3:31
Basically b/c we think the Guardians played like a .500 team in BaseRuns (expected RS and RA based on the in-game results they accrued, but made context-neutral)
3:32
Or rather, not BECAUSE of that, but those underlying numbers feed projection models. We project the Guardians to not be as good of a team as the Padres. I'm not really sure how provable this is in one direction or the other, but if you're wondering why, that's why
Guest
3:31
Did we see that none of the Athletic writers predicted the Yankees or the Dodgers to win the WS lol
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
Those number-crunching eggheads and their groupthink... wait a second!
Ben Clemens
3:32
joy
Lily
3:33
Do you send Valdez back out with his pitch count this high already?
Ben Clemens
3:33
Yes
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
Yeah, only 70 and while he's in the 3rd time through the order, the part he's about to face isn't exactly Manny-Ortiz-Nomar
Justin
3:35
How much of that second inning do you attribute to batted ball luck
Ben Clemens
3:35
Some... but the Tigers have squared him up well
That's not fake
I'm not sure it's very stable, but they've hit a lot of balls really hard today. Sure, maybe more of those should've turned into outs, but it's not like every single one is a swinging bunt
The way Framber is pitching today, he surely deserves to have allowed some runs
Jeremy
3:36
Tigers radio color guy just now: "Those two guys have been such rocks in the outfield..." He meant it as praise, but...
Ben Clemens
3:36
MJ Melendez discussion on the Tigers broadcast, huh
5 Run Homer
3:37
A Rock in the Outfield: The Nick Castellanos Story
Jeremy
3:37
It may actually have been Nick Castellanos discussion.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:38
Rock in the Outfield: the post-Montreal phase of Tim Raines' career
(i rarely recall him being referred to as Rock when he was an Expo, though there exist Topps cards that counter that notion)
Matt
3:39
I don't know how to resolve this situation, but MLB really needs to work on these game times. 2pm and 4pm start times on a Tuesday is just inexcusable.
Ben Clemens
3:39
I think they moved around the VP debate
or rather, they moved the games to avoid it
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
on four-game days, you're either going to get early starts or overlaps.
Davy Andrews
3:39
Hi everyone!
Ben Clemens
3:40
Hey Davy!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:40
there's no pleasing everybody, and the voraciousness of the four-game consumers is not at the top of the "everybody" list
hey Davy!
Bosoxforlife
3:40
How long does Skubal go assuming he continues to get the job done?
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