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2025 FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
Good morning from overcast Tempe, it's Top 100 Prospects day. I hope everyone is enjoying this year's tome. Thanks for coming to the chat. I'm going to do my best to get to as many questions as possible for about an hour...
JB
12:04
Besides Sasaki, which T100 guys without MLB experience have the best shot at making Opening Day rosters?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Shaw I think is likely. Maybe the Chander, Dollander, Sproat group...
12:07
I'd say non-zero chance Kurtz and Freeland. Kurtz I imagine years of control will matter to LVofSAC...
One of the Guardians 2B, Brito or Bazzana...
Maybe one of the ChiSox catchers...
12:08
Agustin Ramirez
Cole Young perhaps
Jesse
12:08
What about Colt Emerson isn't doing it for you? Is he just harder to project out because he's so young?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
I'm a little confused by this since Emerson is on the list, which means I think he projects as a top 15 player at his position. I don't think it's plus hit and power *and* a shortstop, I think it's 2B/3B with some fastball vulnerability, solid regular type guy.
Nick
12:11
I'm surprised that Zyhir Hope isn't in the top 100, can you provide some insight as to why? Fall league performance doesn't move the needle much?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
AFL performance definitely moved the needle for me, he's a talented guy who I've got just outside the Top 100. Lemme just paste his report in here. It'll be pushed live to the board along with other relevant near-misses and picks to click this week...
Hope was traded to the Dodgers as part of the Michael Busch deal before 2024 spring training, just six months after he was selected as the Cubs’ 2023 11th-round pick. He then missed most of the first half of the 2024 season with a shoulder injury and was limited to just 61 regular season games before he picked up reps in the Arizona Fall League. He slashed .287/.415/.490 in 248 PA at Rancho Cucamonga and then .228/.301/.446 in 103 PA in Arizona. 
Hope’s power is real. He has become tremendously strong since turning pro, he generates ridiculous power for a hitter his age, and he does so in a short mechanical distance. His peak exit velocities are comfortably plus on the big league scale; during Fall League, I watched him hit a 470-foot homer one day and then fight off a 97 mph fastball for an oppo homer the next. Why the apprehension, then? For one, Hope is now physically maxed out. His thighs look like tree trunks and he's slowed down a good bit already compared to high school. His swing is relatively grooved
12:15
In short, I think there's more strikeout risk here than currently shows in his data, which I don't trust because of the relatively small sample, the Cal League environment, etc.
Trevor
12:15
Interested in your thoughts on Owen Caissie, as I noticed he's not listed on your top 100. Do you think the swing and miss will prevent him from being a premier OF/1B option for Chicago?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
I think he'll be a good platoon option, probably not someone you want in the lineup vs lefties, though.
The Cubs list in its entirety is here: Chicago Cubs Top 38 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball
Matt
12:16
how close was Gary Gill Hill, Craig Yoho, Marco Raya, & keeler morfe from consideration? Thanks for all this hard work!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Yoho and GGH received heavy consideration. GGH will be a Pick to Click, didn't make it more because of proximity than talent. Yoho is fascinating. Elite changeup guy, funky low arm slot. I think he'll be a valuable long reliever. Good prospect, just not quite to this level.
12:19
Morfe, like with GGH, just a little too far away to stuff on the hondo. These rookie-level arms play Russian Roulette with their UCLs for four or five years, I value proximity when it comes to pitchers
Raya is more of a solid 45 type
laxtonto
12:20
What would be your baseline expectation of Walcott be? What is your 95th percentile view?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
You can see a detailed "range of outcomes" graph by click the "expand" button below his scouting report. His right tail outcomes are Tatisian
Guest
12:21
Any other bluejays close to the list?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Alan Roden. Lemme pull up his report for you
12:22
Roden has posted god-tier surface-level stats dating back to college, and he's done so in pro ball while making several significant mechanical adjustments to his swing. In 2023, he was given Craig Counsell's batting stance and a big leg kick, while his hands were lowered closer to his ear in 2024. The changes have helped Roden, who turned 25 in December, to access more power without trading off much contact...
12:23
He slashed .293/.391/.475 split between Double- and Triple-A in 2024, running a 93% in-zone contact rate and 83% overall. His measureable power (37% hard-hit rate, 103 mph EV90) was a shade south of the overall big league average, but comfortably below what is typical for a corner outfielder. The short-levered Roden is best at accessing his power against breaking balls that finish middle-in. It's against these pitches you can really see how much his swing allows him to use the ground to help generate power. Well-executed backfoot breaking balls, however, are Kryptonite to Roden's bat path; he struggles to scoop those, and swings over the top of them. He's adept at flattening his bat path to cover high fastballs to drive them the other way, but tends to expand the zone against them a little too often...
12:24
Roden received heavy consideration for the Top 100 list. Three things shaded his grade down into more of a platoon role. He's much more chase-prone against fastballs and with two strikes (both relative to his chase in other counts, and to the big league average with two strikes), which suggests that his excellent walk rates from the minors will dip in the big leagues. He's also a boxy 25-year-old, and I worry that he'll be subject to athletic decline during his six-year window of team control. Roden is not currently on Toronto's 40-man, and the Blue Jay's big league corner outfield situation is very, very crowded. It's imperative for things to shake out among the Loperfido/Barger/Lukes/Wagner group pairing with George Springer and playing opposite Anthony Santander. It might not be until 2026 that Roden, who will then be 26, gets to entrench himself as a Pavin Smith type contributor.
John B
12:24
Who’s the next team prospect list to drop
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Rays
RoyalBlue
12:24
Carter Jensen ahead of Blake Mitchell was surprising to me. Reasons?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
They're similar. Jensen's defense is much more polished. Mitchell still can't block balls in the dirt and chases a ton.
JD
12:25
Eric, Walker Jenkins comes in at 17. Do you see this as his peak on your top 100. Is there something he can do to move up? What can he do to improve his prospect value?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
No, he'll probably climb just via graduations of players in front of him. I'd like to see more measurable power in 2025. I buy that he can hit, I think his power is currently closer to average.
Honkus Wagner
12:26
having ranked them similarly, what are the biggest differences you see in Nick Kurtz and Bryce Eldridge?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Eldridge is younger and has more room for mass. His pro data sample (which I just trust more than college stuff due to pitcher quality) is bigger and more reliable.
Ryan
12:28
You seem to be the low man on Jaison Chourio what issues do you see in his profile that have you lower on him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Jaison Chourio report incoming:
12:29
I'm still apprehensive enough about Chourio to exclude him from the Top 100 because I don't think his right-handed swing is usable, and there are some indications that he might struggle with better velocity from the left side as he climbs the minors. Chourio still does enough from the left side of the dish to consider him a good prospect. He swings hard for his age, he has terrific breaking ball recognition, he moves the barrel around well from the left side, and he's shown the occasional ability to flatten his bat path to cover high fastballs. He also tends to drive the ball into the ground a lot of the time, and a large portion of his balls in play against fastballs end up going oppo because Chourio is late to the contact point. He posted a 144 wRC+ as a teenager in full season ball, in large part because Chourio's plate discipline is so mature...
There are some adjustments to be made here if Chourio is going to hit for power in the big leagues, and it's plausible those adjusments will simply occur as he is forced to deal with better velocity than he saw at Low-A. Those tweaks are going to be important, though, because he's proabbly going to end up in an outfield corner. Yes, he stole 44 bases in 2024, but Chourio is an average runner whose feel for playing defense is only fair. It's more likely he ends up in right field than center. Again, he's a good prospect and his metrics are great. I consider him to have a corner platoon floor with the upside of a true everyday guy if the power actualizes in a more obvious way.
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