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2025 FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects Chat
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John
12:29
how close was Franklin arias to the list?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
Not especially close. His trackman data is pretty good, but I thought he was just okay during my in-person look last May, and during film study during work on the list. You could consider him a pick to click. Were he to be included he would have stacked around Francisca, whose contact ability I buy as being pretty special.
EV
12:31
How far is B Guerrero from 2025 top 100?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Brailer Guerrero, Rays OF. I like him, corner guy in the FCL who has barely played due to injury. I just want to feel more solid about the guys toward the bottom of the defensive spectrum than I currently do about Brailer. He's incredibly strong, I think his swing is kinda funky and I wanna see it work against full season pitching.
Envious
12:32
It’s pretty wild that the Dodgers have the best team, and also no one has more top 100 guys than them too.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
The Alex Freeland development is absolute nuts, can't say I've seen anything like that before.
Do you have any Grey Papelbon?
12:33
What would need to happen  for Eduardo Quintero to make it back to the Top 100?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
Better CF defense
Ryan
12:33
Noticed that Jordan Lawlar dropped from a 60 FV in your Diamondbacks prospect list to a 55 in the top 100, is that just a general re-assessment of him against the broader prospect class or something more specific?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Both. The peak exit velos are pretty bleh, and have been for a couple of years. Once I stacked everyone (i'll do a data table dump on the site this week I think so you can see some relevant data points for everyone) it felt hard to keep him in that 60 group. Conversely, Crisantes moved up on their list for the same reasons.
Ken
12:35
How far off from the Top 100 was Denzel Clarke? After shaking off the rust, he hit .299/.366/.487 from May 11 to the end of the season.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Not far, as you can see on the A's list, he's a 45+ FV, that's juuuust behind this top 100 group.
Justin
12:36
If we strip defense out of the valuation equation, who are some guys who are outside of, say, the top 30, you you could see turning into real offensive mashers?
Eric A Longenhagen
Too Many Mooks
12:37
Who on this list do you most feel like you are the high guy on? Low guy?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
I'm so high on Alfredo Duno that I'm starting to hallucinate
Tiger Fan
12:38
Super excited to see so many Tigers on your t100 this morning. What’re the odds of a Rainer, Lee or Hamm popping on by Midseason? They seem like the best of the rest on the farm
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Rainer is the best of that group. Tigers list is coming in the near future. I get why you might really like Hamm and his monster curveball. More of a 45 for me, still a good player. Lee I think is a 350 PA role player type.
cake
12:40
Was Hurston Waldrep slip down a half grade because of command concerns/relief risk?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Yes, and fastball playability.
Still good!
Jamey
12:41
Quinn Mathews as the top Cardinals prospect was a minor surprise. As was that he’s projected as arriving this season.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
Guy has built a 140 inning workload, he's ready. Compare that to Tink.
Neil Mills
12:41
What separates Angel Genao most from the rest of the Guardians never ending line of switch hitting infielders?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
Compared to Bazzana it's the defense. Athleticism and projectability are also factors. You can compare their tool grades and see where the deltas are: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball
Victoria
12:43
Are you all the way out on Mo Baller?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
No, good role player, his full report is here: Chicago Cubs Top 38 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball
Ben J
12:44
Can Moises Chace be a midseason top 5 pitching prospect? Can he sustain a lower walk rate (subtracting a few blow up starts) and be an impact starter?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
That's probably a little aggressive, but if he suddenly has a plus secondary pitch this spring then all bets are off.
Josue Briceno
12:44
Apparently, since his knee injury last season, Briceño has worked exclusively at 1B and DH. If he does goes that direction (1B/DH), does that change your evaluation of him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
He has but that's because of the injury, not his skill. He's a good defensive catcher.
Guest
12:45
Is it better to prioritize contact ability or power for prospects? I can see arguments for both (for example, power is more valuable but easier to develop)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
You're on it. It's why Boston took Campbell and Durran, right?
Qane
12:46
Really fascinating list. Any arms on this list who are flying a bit under the radar (thinking of a Jared Jones last year) who you see making a significant contribution in 2025?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
Damn, was Jones under the radar? That guy has been famous since high school. I guess Curet? Messick? Here's who I have a 2025 ETA on: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball
Yuniesky Betancourt
12:49
What do you need to see from Termarr Johnson this year for him to get back into the 50 FV tier?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
Still has good raw power for a MIF, really wanna see him tap into it in games (idc if he K's a bunch, just please do something) and it'd be nice if he got better on defense.
Nervous Flyball Pitcher
12:51
First of all, thank you for another year of thoughtful analysis (and welcome to David Gerth).

Two O's who missed the cut: Brandon Young and EBJ? How did you revise your evaluation of Young (previously 50 FV)? More game tape? More data? Comparison against the rest of the class?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
Bradfield's CF defense isn't so good as to tip him into the 50 tier without there being power on offense. He's a 45, good player. Young I agonized over. Still think his fastball is plus even though it sits 92. Curveball is average, rest of the repertoire played a little below. He's also 26 and they like *barely* stretched him out, innings wise.
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