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2025 FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
Again, good player. It's razor thin stuff like this that pushes a guy like Curet in and a guy like Young out.
Yuniesky Betancourt
12:55
Was surprised to see no Braden Montgomery on the 100.  Too much uncertainty regarding injury recovery, or something else?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
Yep, some hit tool questions, too. Again, awesome prospect, let's see him hit pro pitching.
12:56
Report: Montgomery comes from a family of multiple Division-I athletes. He was among the most prominent of the 2021 high schoolers to go to school. He spent two seasons at Stanford, where Montgomery played both ways and showed meaningful bat-to-ball improvement as a sophomore after a strikeout-prone freshman year. He transferred to A&M and was the most talented player on their College World Series runner-up squad; he suffered a fractured right ankle on a slide into home during the postseason. Montgomery slashed .317/.428/.646 throughout his entire college career, with 20% K% as a junior.
A super physical 6-foot-2 switch-hitter, Montgomery has monster bat speed from the left side. He has a crouched leg kick, his hands load at a conservative depth, and his hips absolutely explode though contact and help ignite a big finish in the dirt behind him. His lefty swing generates power to all fields, and he has some ability to alter his upper body's posture during his swing in order to clear out the top of the zone, something that Montgomery only seemed to develop during his time at A&M. His righty swing is more generic; he has a low-ball tendency from that side and his cut isn't especially dynamic. He's vulnerable to changeups as a lefty, and up-and-away fastballs and backfoot breakers as a righty.
Montgomery has a huge arm in right field, was up to 97 as a freshman reliever (his stuff was down during his sophomore year at Stanford and he didn't really pitch at A&M), and has the speed to give center field a try in pro ball. Some of the changes he made at A&M have improved the strikeout issues that were once caused by his lever length. This is a switch-hitter who was also a two-way player until 2023, and Montgomery's performance is even more exciting given that context. Above-average plate discipline and a swing geared to get to his power will help Montgomery overcome what are likely to be elevated strikeout totals. He has the ceiling of a power-hitting right field cleanup hitter.
Eleazar
12:56
Eric, where do you see Lazaro Montes? He more than held his own at advanced A as a 19 year old. Yes, the strikeouts were too high but he was almost three and a half years below the average age there. And with reports that his athleticism (like Julio Rodriguez before him) is much better than initially advertised, seems like an exciting prospect, no?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:57
He's okay. Mariners fans need to realize what Modesto and Everett do to offensive numbers. Here are some park independent numbers for Laz compared to the average MLB corner OF: (gimme a sec por favor)
1:00
Harry Ford
1:01
My eyebrows raised at his omission from this years list. Why the drop? How far out of the top 100 does he land now?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:01
Harry's report:
Some of Ford's dip in surface level production in 2024 (he slashed .249/.377/.367 after slugging at least .430 at each previous level) can be attributed to the change in hitting environment from Seattle's low-level affiliates (which inflate offense) to Double-A Arkansas (which suppresses it), but some of it appears to be at least a temporary regression in his physical tools. Ford has always had a relatively grooved swing and struggled to get on top of elevated fastballs, but especially late in 2024, his bat speed looked like it had backed up quite a bit. He's now had two consecutive seasons in which his underlying power data (his peak exit velos and hard-hit rate) has been a tad shy of the big league average. It's starting to look like Ford's plate discipline will be his only plus offensive trait, which at the very least caps his ceiling and arguably puts him at risk of busting if his hit tool bottoms out.
1:02
The good news is that Ford still does a lot of good stuff on defense and adds value on the bases with his speed. There seemed to be some experimentation happening with his throwing toward the end of the season. He'd more often cut it loose from his knees, and his 2024 caught stealing rate of 19% is worse than what one would hope for a guy with Ford's arm strength, but visually he looked fine. He still popped sub-1.9 a lot of the time, and he's a special athlete who'll do some nutty stuff to prevent wild pitches. He's still not the best receiver and pitch framer, but Ford does enough other stuff at a very high level to be an above-average catcher. The presence of Cal Raleigh at the big league level would make it tough for any catching prospect to break through in Seattle, so Ford played eight games in left field last year. He looked pretty good out there given his relative inexperience. Readers might recall that there were scouts who though teenage Ford, who stole 35 bases in 44 attempts in 2024, had the speed
...had the speed to be developed in center field, but with Julio Rodríguez patrolling the middle pasture, it probably isn't necessary for the M's to try him there. Overall, Ford has the ability of a second-division primary catcher. He's a good enough defender to play regularly, but he probably won't hit enough to be considered a top 15-ish player at his position. On the Mariners, he's more likely a really special and fun role player who serves as a part-time catcher and left fielder.
Ken
1:03
How did doing the audit of the 2018 list impact your thinking about any prospects for this year's list?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:03
Pitcher proximity
Refugee
1:05
Would FanGraphs ever consider publishing this work (i.e., top 100, org lists) a la BA prospect handbook?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:06
I doubt it. I'm not sure they make book spines big enough for the amount of writing all 30 teams require.
Aldo Rayne
1:06
What do you see as the differences between Chandler Simpson and Enrique Bradfield, Jr. that pushed Simpson ahead for you?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
Simpson it's elite contact and speed, Bradfield is more 70 on both accounts, and I'm projecting on Simpson's defense because of how new the position is for him.
George
1:07
I audibly gasped at the Susana ranking. Would you confidence in him panning out be markedly different on a different team? Seems like that Nats have taken steps forward in their pitching dev the last couple of years and they are probably fighting an unfair reputation, but what's your opinion on their ability to max him out?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
You've gotta see this guy's slider.
1:08
The dev thing is important, but factoring dev into these rankings is not really feasible because the personnel doing it change so often.
I miss Carson
1:09
Who would you guess as some of "Carson's guys" or "fringe five" types after posting this years list?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:11
Alan Roden, Aidan Smith, Jojo Ingrassia, Matt Wilkinson, Sal Stewart. Mwah, love you buddy.
sliptoad
1:11
As a big Melton (Astros org) fan, what changed in your evaluation of him to drop him from the top 100
Eric A Longenhagen
1:11
Not a CF defense fit, inside outed a ton of fastballs, worry he'll ge crushed by lefties. Plaoon guy, still good.
Mr. Burrito
1:12
Another question: Your list runs 100-ish players, and I’ve seen other lists that go a bit longer. If you were in a front office how many minor league players would you project in this kind of detail?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:13
As many as they'd let me.
Varitek
1:13
At the end of the year, which non 60s do you see being able to climb into the 60 fv tier? Any you believe are likely?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:15
Miller, Jenkins, Duno, the MIFs near and including Bazzana, Rosario, any of the Mariners toolsheds toward the back of the list
tbone26
1:16
question about arjun nimmala’s listings; he clocked in at around 170 pounds on draft day and doesn’t look meaningfully bigger, is the 215-pound listing accurate to recent data or is it partially projection?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:18
That's my eyeball assessment. There's no way that guy is 170 pounds. I'm 5-11, 185 and you can see two of my abs
Nick
1:18
No critique but some interesting inclusions/omissions. I appreciate there is less group think here.

Curet in the Top 100 was as surprise; what about his profile has you more bullish than others?

On the flipside Ballesteros is omitted from the list despite being top 50 in many other places - is the defensive home the worry here? something else?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:19
I cannot speak for the others, I did not consult their work when compiling my list, this is not a repackaging. Ballesteros' report is on the site and pretty clear.
Aldo Rayne
1:19
Roden close but not Yesavage?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:19
Yesavage was close too
Pud Gavin
1:19
Noticed no Griffin or Rainer. Just waiting to see some actual game reps?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:19
yep
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