JotCast | 2025 Trade Value Series Chat

2025 Trade Value Series Chat

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Ben Clemens

11:13

people pick a success metric, and it's arbitrary, it's a transformed estimator of the actual goal

surplus value is a great example. it's very correlated to winning orgs, surely

but it's not actually the real goal. it's an estimator

so when you have this easy-to-measure estimator, then you just start optimizing for the estimator

That's not the goal, though. And every place where that estimator and the goal misalign you are now turbo-charging

11:15

I try to balance a lot of different stuff in my evaluations of players. I'm not sure I do a perfect job of it. I THINK that I do a fairly good job. And I have a bunch of advantages that most people don't, like all the time in the world to back-check (Ketel Marte should have been a top 10 trade value twice in a row a few years ago, for example, if we're looking at ex-post results)

but I think that surely, we can all agree that the right way to think about a GM's job is that it's to put the best team on the field, and that there are a million factors that go into that

free agent signings show that surplus value can't be the only thing that matters. like you said, otherwise, it'd never happen, and on one would ever be hapy when they signed a free agent

Goodhart's Law

11:15

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Ben Clemens

11:16

yeah, I don't think it's QUITE that, but it's similar

i still think it's a good measure. I just don't think it's a sufficient or complete measure

Phil

11:16

Can we talk about Anthony? I generally agree with you more than a lot of people who comment, but not that one. My logic was, would Breslow trade RA straight up for Logan Gilbert? No, he'd guffaw at that were he anatomically capable. Etc.

Ben Clemens

11:16

yeah, look, I don't feel super confident about this

I just know that if I were a GM mustering up resources to trade for either Roman Anthony or Logan Gilbert

and my team were trying to win baseball games right now

like, this year and next, maybe the year after that

11:17

I think I could probably talk myself into offering more for Gilbert

think of it this way: to make a trade work, to have the big huge shiny value, you need a mismatch

you need the Padres wanting Soto's now and not caring about Wood's later, or you need the Cubs wanting to break the curse, whatever

how are you creating that mismatch when you're trading prospects for Roman Anthony?

11:18

I think you could make the argument that Anthony is just so valuable

that the fact that teams won't lean into a mismatch, won't offer a bunch of future value that is larger in magnitude than the present value

just isn't enough to offset how valuable he is

that doesn't seem crazy to me at all! I think you could believe that and still have Anthony higher than I do