JotCast | 2025 Trade Value Series Chat

2025 Trade Value Series Chat

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Ben Clemens

11:25

It's a big input to my model!

11:26

but yes, the reason that it can't be your only model is that we're not living in a world of fungible commodities

you can't just play 67 Isaac Collinses

love Isaac Collins. GOod teams need Isaac Collinses

Phil

11:26

Thanks for the explanation about Anthony--very clear and helpful. Does it also amount to an explanation of why guys like that don't get traded--that there's just no way another team is going to value RA enough more than Boston does to make a trade make sense?

Ben Clemens

11:26

Yeah, for sure. I think that's actually why very few guys on this list move, and philosophically, maybe you could just ignore the 'mismatch value' and put Anthony higher

11:27

I don't want to. So I choose not to. I could be convinced, though, to alter my methods at least a little

like, at the end of the day, this is what I'd do as a GM, not some attempt to find what the real trade market would do perfectly (since that's impossible)

and I don't mind slamming big grades on James Wood or Elly on the hope that they'll become a generational player

11:28

I dunno, Anthony doesn't fall into that tier for me. maybe that's wild

i do think he's getting a little 'oh he's the top guy in baseball' juice, to where, like, Chourio was the #5 prospect it looks like on his last top 100

but, per our scouting grades, a better prospect than Anthony

"number one" is a relative post, not fixed

11:30

I could definitely be wrong on Anthony. But I shaded to the 'just very good prospect' side instead of like, this guy breaks the game

that said: get ready for some Konnor Griffin uncomfortably high ranks if he is a 70 FV dude next year

Marks

11:31

How big is the value gap between Skubal and Skenes, the two highest ranked pitchers?

Ben Clemens

11:31

it is so large

so so large

I mean, Skubal isn't getting traded. But you could imagine a guy like Skubal getting traded, right?

There isn't enough value for someone to acquire Skenes. it couldn't happen I don't think

11:32

and if that trade did happen, just b/c of the constraints of what has happened in previous real life, the team acquiring skenes would end up getting a steal

like if you give them a 'soto package'

that's still an underpay

Guest

11:32

Sorry, I asked about Max Fried, but I was really curious about how well a FA needs to perform right after signing a contract to then make that contract valuable, in your mind. Like clearly some guys are capable of it to a big degree (Wheeler), but the sort of pseudo assumption is that as soon as they sign they are not very valuable on a list like this

Ben Clemens

11:32

oh sure, I just missed that one earlier

Fried was an HM!

11:33

like, i'm not super into it, but Meg talked me into putting him on there, and I can see the arugment

I'm happy putting guys on there if I feel like they fit the criteria

what every team was willing to pay in December is definitely a useful guide, but not the only one

I think I'm down on Fried relative to the industry

11:34

for example I heard a non-Yankees broadcaster put him in 'the tier just below Skenes and Skubal'

and like...... nah, no thanks

if you think he's in that tier, by all means, bordering on top 50

i just don't

HappyFunBall

11:34

I'm curious about some of the choices that went into the Trade Value Toy. I suppose I understand why Vlad Jr was in there, despite being on a deal with so many terrifying outcomes. But why someone like Shane McClanahan who hasn't thrown a pitch in MLB in almost two calendar years now?

Ben Clemens

11:34

Oh, I think it was.... my list of top 50 + plausible names + people I knew I had to HM?

11:35

plus hyeseong kim b/c I dunno, he was on some list and had enough projection to meet some cutoff?

Vlad's in there b/c coudl you imagine a toy like this not having vlad guerrero?

c'mon now

11:35

Thanks for the list, Ben, it's always a banger. Justice for Oneil Cruz! I have to believe at least one team would value the physical tools enough to value him over someone like Westburg or Wilson

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