JotCast | 2025 Trade Value Series Chat | 7/25/2025

2025 Trade Value Series Chat

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Ben Clemens

11:35

Hey, thanks!

one sec, grabbing coffee

11:36

yeah, I mean, he's certainly in that range

11:37

my personal evaluation is lower at this point. i don't think it's crazy. he's definitely in the same stratosphere as those guys

11:38

i mean we do a top 50 but the differences in value get very slim at the bottom

kind of a normal distribution thing. there are a lot of players of roughly similar value like that. I could see someone shoving Cruz higher just b/c of the outlier tools if they wanted

but like, okay, Luis Robert has kinda been that guy in previous years sometimes

11:39

and I think I'm generally on the 'let me see it' side

at this point in my life

Ari

11:39

If Juan Soto was fully hitting at the level he was last year, would he have been an HM or on the list?

I guess my thought is if, for whatever reason, the Mets blew up and shopped him, the Yankees or Dodgers (or Giants?) would probably put together a decent package to take that contract

Ben Clemens

11:39

I don't think so, honestly

it's just TOO big of a contract

i guess it depends on exactly what 'the level he was last year' means

maybe I could see it? but it's just SO much, so much more than the next closest too

11:40

I'm one of the nerdy analysts who is most bullish on good players on big contracts, I'd say, but man, that is a BIG contract

Guest

11:41

5 of the top 10 guys are what I’d describe as “Huge, Athletic freaks.” Do you think that’s a trend in baseball to value that type of standout athletic type more or a blip ?

Ben Clemens

11:42

Well, to some extent, it's my top 10 and I like those guys so it's a self-fulfilling prophecy

but also, yes

I think it's a trend

those guys are doing a lot of the standing out these days

11:43

like even the guys that aren't huge athletic freaks - I guess that's Raleigh, Acuna, Carroll, Gunnar, WItt? -- are still kinda outliers

Raleigh has massive bat speed, Carroll and Witt might not be HUGE but they're both off the charts on athletic stuff

Acuna, I mean, he's ronald acuna

11:44

it's my general feel that teams and players are getting better at actualizing the big big tools into great players

not like, perfect. but better

Phil

11:44

So, great athletes are good at sports, basically.

Ben Clemens

11:45

Yeah! And 'many athletic technological and methodological advances are democratized, so having the standout unteachable physical skills becomes more of a differentiator'

i mean, to be fair, the unteachable mental skills too. those are just harder to see until i've seen a lot of data

Ben Schneider

11:45

Can you please expand on why you left Joe Ryan out? He's a Cy Young candidate with the most valuable pitch in the sport

Ben Clemens

11:45

yeah, sure. Ryan and Gore could have been on there. 'most valuable pitch in the sport' I mean, that didn't enter into my calculations

11:46

i think they're super nice players, bet either will fetch a huge return at the deadline, I could have squeezed them in if I wanted and there are always gonna be guys like that

let's see what Ryan gets if the Twins deal him. I'm very curious!

11:48

there's absolutely gonna be some model trepidation, b/c if I model his strikeouts based on his pitches and even his swinging strike/first pitch striek rates, I'd have them a little lower

but.... look, I"m not super confident in that evaluation

the lower on the list, the less confident I am in differentiating people. If Ryan is truly #39 or #61, who knows

just my best guess

Wireless Joe Jackson

11:49

Hi Ben, I think this is your best list yet! Very little to quibble with, and no one seems to want to quibble about the same guys.

Ben Clemens

11:49

Thank you!

I think it's my best list yet, but then again, I would not be doing this exercise still if I didn't

if I thought I was not getting better and being challenged by it, I'd definitely not submit to this amoutn of work, haha

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