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ALDS Games 1 Chat

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Section329

5:33

Is Alex Cintron back with the Astros?

Ben Clemens

5:33

Good question, and I don't know

I'd guess not just because I think we'd hear

Guest

5:34

Random thought, but the announcers are talking about how a lot of McCullers' stuff is hanging right now. Similarly to how EV and launch angle in xBA shows over/under performance for hitters, would it be possible to create a model that says "oh this pitch with this amount of vertical/horizontal movement at 90 mph in the upper right corner of the zone usually results in a swing and miss 13% of the time, or an xBA of ~.200?" Something that might accurately show how a pitcher might "have his best stuff" on a particular day?

Ben Clemens

5:34

I've tried various ways of looking at this, and I've never really gotten to anything I'm comfortable with

Fangraph's Lurker

5:34

WHERE'S MARLIN'S MAN!

Dan Szymborski

5:35

I'm still disappointed they don't have celebrity cutouts

Ben Clemens

5:35

That said I'm not great at this kind of modeling, because it requires a lot of slicing and dicing of samples

Dan Szymborski

5:35

The results are really messy

QOP is essentially slapped together awkwardly

Ben Clemens

5:36

Well this wouldn't have to be that.... I've done things that are more hunting for pitchers whose movement is off one day

I think one of the problems with that is that pitchers don't just throw the same curveball over and over

There's actually a decent spread in movement from pitch to pitch

5:37

Tango did a good thing on this last year I believe

slicing up each pitcher's fastballs into percentile ranks

And seeing if, say, the 20% they throw hardest outperform

You could maybe try that kind of thing on different variables than velo?

5:40

"Springer with a perfect day, two singles"

For some definitions of perfect lol

Guest

5:43

Where would you take Sean Murphy in a draft of catchers for the next 5 years?

Ben Clemens

5:43

I think this depends on whether it's fantasy or real life somewhat

Guest

5:44

Real life

Ben Clemens

5:44

In that case I think Dan's the man for this one, but I'd probably have him at the tail end of the top 10

Eh, maybe the middle of the top 10

5:45

I have a hard time power ranking things like this for whatever reason

Jake D

5:46

Watching the Kershaw Hankook tire commercial, is it a good look for Kershaw that someone hit his pitch so far it takes multiple car rides just to get to where it lands?

Ben Clemens

5:46

I can't tell if you're just egging me on, but it's an absurd commercial

It's such a bad look for him!

The second one isn't any better

5:47

Calling for a changeup from a guy who doesn't throw a changeup

5:48

Here comes some 'knows how to pitch, knows how to get outs'

Guys, Petit would LOVE to throw 99

he would be so much better if he could

Fangraph's Lurker

5:48

it just feels like a tire commercial should star someone who runs...like altuve, or story, maybe trout

Ben Clemens

5:48

Buxton, Kiermaier, Trout works for me

Yeah

Also Ben

5:48

What kind of contract would someone like La Stella get in the offseason? Acknowledging that predicting contracts even when there isn't a pandemic is an imperfect science

Dan Szymborski

5:49

Not a huge one and this winter is going to be weird

Cito's Mustache

5:49

I'm glad Bassitt is out of the game just so I don't have to hear the announcers keep saying how good he is 3rd time through the order.

Defenestrater

5:49

And besides, it’s not even an out when Kershaw catches it outside the field of play; it is still a home run.

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